Evening Update

I don't know how many people watched College Gameday this evening in the run-up to the UCLA/Arizona game. But if someone can check this for me... I think I heard Hubert Davis say that the SEC is better than the ACC. I believe his words were "Who says the SEC is weak? Look at the ACC! They're getting at least five teams in." And he gets paid to say stuff like that? My head hurts. Let's try to build up those who feel like their IQ levels took a hit watching Davis, by discussing the biggest results of the late afternoon and early evening:

Missouri 77, #24 Kansas State 74
I don't know why people were really too shocked about this. I say it all the time - teams tend to follow up huge wins with letdown games. All those kids were out partying after the Kansas win, it's a letdown to "only" play Missouri. It's natural to not be on your game. Still, I'm a bit shocked that Missouri played this well with the suspensions. I didn't get to watch this game, but from previous Missouri games it has always struck me that Darryl Butterfield is a real "glue" guy. He doesn't get stats, but he does all the little things and really motivates everyone around him when he's on the floor. I'm surprised that their performance didn't suffer without him. But if Missouri is going to make a run at the Tournament, it's got to begin now. They are still a mere 13-9, and 3-4 in the Big 12. And the computer numbers are bad. They need to go on a run. But the great thing about 40 Minutes of Hell, Version 2.0 is that Missouri can really beat anybody on any given day. They won't be in the BP65 tomorrow, of course, but don't count them out.

#14 Stanford 67, #9 Washington State 65, OT
Why do you recruit two Lopez's? This game is why. The "other" Lopez (Robin) scored the game-winning basket in overtime. Stanford is really sneaking up on a lot of people, as many bracketologists didn't even think they'd be a Tourney team when this season started. With this win they have practically wrapped up a Tournament bid at this point. They might even sneak into the Top 10 when the polls come out Monday, depending how other games turn out today and tomorrow. They are still trailing UCLA, but at 7-2 they have blown clear of the rest of the conference. I don't think they have the overall athleticism or skill to hang with UCLA, but Stanford is still in the running for a #2 or #3 seed depending on how strongly they finish the season. And remember what I said about Washington State yesterday. They are now 5-4 in the Pac-10 and the RPI has careened out of the Top 20. Really, the fact is that they just can't hit their shots right now. Think Texas A&M a couple of weeks ago. Eventually the shots will fall and Wazzu will be fine, because you don't need to hit all too many to win when you have the 2nd ranked defense in the nation.

St. Louis 71, UMass 59
With Dayton collapsing, UMass had stepped up as the best possibility for a third Tournament team for the A-10. This game won't help things, as the Minutemen dropped to 3-4 in the Atlantic Ten. The RPI is still in the Top 30, but the RPIs are all out of whack in the A-10. Dayton has an RPI of 14th, and there's a good chance they wouldn't even be in the Tournament if the season ended now. Sagarin gives UMass the slight edge over Dayton for third place in the conference. Standings-wise, of course, both of those teams are pretty far back. St. Joseph's is actually leading everything at 6-1, and that has gotten them placed in a few brackets this week, leading to some people thinking that the A-10 might get an absurd five teams in the Dance. But people need to get real about the Hawks. Yes, they swept UMass, but they also lost to an atrocious Holy Cross team. They have feasted on bad teams, and the schedule gets much harder as the season goes on. They get Xavier twice and they have to head to Dayton and Rhode Island. A win over a reeling Nova team this week would go a long way, but I doubt they finish better than 10-6 in the A-10. And that won't be enough to get in. If the A-10 gets a third team, it will be Dayton or UMass. Although only if Dayton gets their act together or if UMass avoids too many more games like this one.

Arkansas 80, #19 Florida 61
A 20 point win over Mississippi State followed by a 19 point demolition of Florida? Not an ordinary week for Arkansas. They benefited from atrocious Florida shooting in this one. The Gators went 4-for-25 from behind the arc. I've said it before, but I absolutely do not understand why some coaches allow their kids to keep hurling three-pointers when it's obvious that they're just not falling. Get to the rim and draw some fouls. Florida is not lacking in athletes, even with the NBA defections. Despite this loss, I still think the Gators would be a Tourney team if the season ended now. And with this week, so would Arkansas. The SEC only has one team locked into the Tournament right now (Tennessee), but it could still get five or six teams in if everything falls right. It will help if Kentucky and South Carolina stop knocking teams off.

Iowa 53, Ohio State 48
Iowa is still alive and kicking after this win over the Buckeyes. A typical hard-nosed Big Ten game, with both teams shooting fairly well despite so few points being scored. Iowa's tournament chances, of course, are still extremely long. But at 4-6 in the Big Ten, it's not impossible for them to get hot and go 11-7. Don't bet on it, though. As for Ohio State, this is pretty devastating for their hopes at a high seed in the Tournament. Without any real good wins, the strength of Ohio State had been that they didn't have any bad losses. Well, now they have one. The RPI is still in the Top 25, but the Buckeyes would probably be something like a 9 or a 10 seed if the season ended now. In my opinion, they're still a fairly likely Tournament team. If you look at their remaining schedule, it's unlikely that they'll fall below the 11-7 Big Ten record that would more or less lock up a bid. Still, this loss stings. It also makes clear that Ohio State is no longer a competitor to win the Big Ten. That race is down to three - Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin.