Friday, November 21, 2008

Recapping The Week: Sunday

I'm back in town, which means that I have a whole lot of results to go over. A ton of important stories to talk about this week, from Tyler Zeller's injury to that big upset in the Garden last night. I want to get to them in chronological order, so we'll start with Sunday's games and work our way to the present:

#19 Florida 81, Bradley 58

Florida just ran all over the Braves in this one. The Florida backcourt of Walter Hodge and Nick Calathes is just way too good. That said, I'm going to actually offer a little criticism of the Gators here. The aforementioned two guards, plus Dan Werner, are all looking very good. But other than that, the Gators seem a little bit thin. Both Chandler Parsons and Alex Tyus (9 points on 3-for-13 shooting, to go with 15 rebounds) struggled yet again. With Kenny Kadji still too raw to play a lot of minutes, you've only got three bench players getting any non-garbage minutes. And none of them have impressed me yet. Erving Walker was the best in this one (10 points and 3 assists in 17 minutes), although Allan Chaney has been the best overall (9 points in this one, and overall averaging 7 points and 3 boards). Florida looks like a Tournament team, but I just don't see how this lack of depth won't keep them from seriously contending for the SEC title. As for Bradley, there's no reason to get too discouraged by this result. Nobody is going to hold it against them for losing in Gainesville. The problem is simply that other than a very tough game at Michigan State, and a possible BracketBusters game, they have no real chance at a good out-of-conference win. The best chance is a home game against a Butler team that isn't nearly as good as it was the past few years. Still, a win over Butler and no other losses (besides Michigan State) would put them at 9-2 heading into conference play. Throw in a Bracketbusters win and a 12-6 Missouri Valley record, and they'd be 22-8. That's a possible at-large bid. Bradley just has to be careful not to mess this math up with a bad loss between now and the start of conference play.

Creighton 82, New Mexico 75

My analysis of Creighton is actually pretty similar to what I just said about Florida. It's not a surprise to see P'Allen Stinnett have a good game, but boy is he going to be good this year. Throw in a breakout game by senior Booker Woodfox (26 points on 8-for-13 shooting) and that's a very good backcourt. That said, the frontcourt was a bit weak here, and New Mexico's big rebounding advantage was what kept them in the game despite 20 turnovers. Also, Creighton got a total nothing out of its bench. The bench went a combined 1-for-14 from the floor, and that's not a typo. This win will do a lot for their computer numbers, and Creighton is very much in the Missouri Valley title hunt, but I'd hesitate to predict too much for this team until they show that they're more than P'Allen Stinnett. Meanwhile, a tough but not devastating loss for New Mexico. They were a bit sloppy here, but that should become less of a problem as the year goes on. And they'll get plenty of opportunities for good wins in the Mountain West, as well as in their out-of-conference slate (VCU, San Diego, Texas Tech and Mississippi, as well as a potential match-up with Drake or Vanderbilt at the Cancun Challenge). And the Mountain West should be good enough that a good performance there will be enough for an at-large bid even without a big out-of-conference win. So we have to wait a while to see how New Mexico improves as the season moves along.

South Carolina 86, Winthrop 63
I don't understand why so few people realize that South Carolina is going to be a good team this year. Actually, I do kind of understand it. They lack any stars that any casual fan would have heard of. But they have a whole lot of good players thanks to a few straight good recruiting classes, and they are clearly coming together under ex-Western Kentucky coach Darrin Horn. They are a very deep team that plays well together, and the fact that they don't have a single star for a defense to focus on makes them hard to game plan against. They're obviously not a serious challenger to Tennessee in the SEC, but this very good win makes me feel better about keeping them in the BP65. As for Winthrop, well, at least they can count on the fact that the Big South is down this year. Nobody is going to get an at-large bid out of that conference, so it's all going to come down to who wins the Big South Tournament in the end. If they can use this loss as a learning experience then it can only help them.

Old Dominion 69, Charlotte 68
One of those very important games at this point of year that nobody hears about. The Jonathan Adams three-pointer that won this game will have serious impact on at-large resumes in both the Atlantic Ten and the Colonial. Not only is this a good win for Old Dominion's resume, but the simple fact that this slightly adjusts the relative conference strengths will be important. Both of these teams should be in contention for conference titles, and are both thinking about at-large possibilities as well, which is why this game was more important for Old Dominion. There is much less room for error in the Colonial compared to the Atlantic Ten, where Charlotte will get plenty more chances for a good win. Assuming Old Dominion plays well this year, this loss won't be too damaging to Charlotte. They're still very much in the at-large hunt if they can make sure that this mediocre early start to the season gets turned around soon.

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