Saturday, December 06, 2008

Another Close Loss For Arizona

Texas A&M 67, Arizona 66
Arizona will find all sorts of ways to lose close games this year. Here, they found a way to blow a 16 point second-half lead. Arizona had the two best players on the floor, but Texas A&M just played very solid all around. I don't know if this is a typo, but ESPN says that they only had four turnovers. They also shot 47% from the field and 83% from the line, which was necessary with the way that Arizona blew them away on the boards (at halftime, Arizona had a remarkable 20-5 advantage in the rebounding department). For Texas A&M, this was a very important win for their resume. They play a pretty weak out-of-conference schedule, with no chance for a big win. That means that a very good record is necessary for an at-large bid. The only remaining game where they won't be big favorites will be when they head to Alabama next Saturday. A win there, and over all of the inferior teams that they play before the Big 12 regular season starts up, will put Texas A&M in really good shape for an at-large spot.

Cincinnati 87, UAB 80
I like the way that Mick Cronin has grown this Cincinnati team. After finishing 2-14 in the Big East in his first year, they moved to 8-10 last year, and are probably even better this season. The difference in this one was actually shooting, as UAB forced more turnovers than they gave up. Cincy had a lot more rebounds, but that was mostly an effect of how many missed shots their were. On UAB missed shots you had 30 defensive boards for Cincy, and 12 offensive boards for UAB. On Cincy missed shots you had 14 defensive rebounds for UAB and 11 offensive boards for Cincy. But in the end, the fact that stats say that UAB would have won with a better shooting day will be little consolation for Mike Davis, as his team slips further down the bubble. They still have zero bad losses (their three losses have been to Oklahoma, Boston College and here against Cincinnati), but you can't get an at-large bid from Conference USA with zero bad losses. You need a good win, and the Blazers continue to blow their chances. They get two more chances for a nice win out-of-conference, as they head to Louisville and Butler in late December. For Cincinnati, they move to 6-1 with a couple of decent wins, and zero bad losses. They get a great opportunity to really throw their hat in the at-large ring when Xavier comes to town next Saturday. It's going to be very hard to earn an at-large bid out of the Big East, but Cincinnati is definitely in the conversation.

Providence 66, Rhode Island 65

A very tight game the entire way. I don't think either team led the other by more than about five points for the entire game. Providence overcame 19% three-point shooting with a huge performance out of senior Weyinmi Efejuku who efficiently scored 21 points along with 8 rebounds. Rhode Island really suffered because they were turned into a jump shooting team. They shot fairly well (44%), but could not get to the foul line at all (4-for-9 for the entire game). I don't think I've ever seen a team win a game with only four made free throws. For Providence, I think the jury is still out on how good of a coach Keno Davis really is. If he's as good as Providence hopes he is, it's possible that he can get his boys into the bubble discussion before all is said and done. But even with this solid win, they're still really far outside the bracket at this point in time. For Rhode Island, this is their third loss to a good opponent. The same thing that I said about UAB applies here: teams from the Atlantic Ten don't get at-large bids because they fail to lose to bad teams. You've got to beat some of these teams from big conferences. I think Rhode Island's Tournament chances are better than those of Providence, but they really need a win over Oklahoma State two saturdays from now.

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