Sunday, December 07, 2008

W-14 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. UCLA (PAC-10)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Duke
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Notre Dame

3. Purdue
3. Florida
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Pittsburgh

4. Oklahoma
4. Wake Forest
4. Louisville
4. Georgetown

5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Syracuse
5. Kansas
5. Arizona State

6. Baylor
6. Marquette
6. Ohio State
6. Clemson

7. Wisconsin
7. Villanova
7. UNLV (MWC)
7. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)

8. Maryland
8. USC
8. Miami (Fl)
8. Michigan

9. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
9. West Virginia
9. Washington State
9. Dayton

10. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
10. Texas A&M
10. BYU
10. Kentucky

11. Virginia Tech
11. California
11. Missouri
11. LSU

12. Utah
12. Illinois
12. BUTLER (HORIZON)
12. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)

13. SIENA (MAAC)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
14. LIBERTY (BIG SOUTH)

15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)
16. STETSON (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Florida State, NC State, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, UTEP, Creighton, Illinois State, San Diego State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Alabama, South Carolina, Saint Mary's

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Georgia Tech, Virginia, George Washington, Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple, Providence, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, VCU, UAB, East Carolina, Houston, Southern Miss, Illinois-Chicago, Kent State, Bradley, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky, San Diego

2 comments:

Devon said...

A couple of comments, even though it's too early to tell on a lot of these comparisons--
1. Michigan State just hasn't looked that good. They have two blowout losses, albeit with a key player out. Ohio State has two nice wins now (Notre Dame was probably after you posted this). Predicting OSU as the Big 10 winner and highest seed is starting to look good.
2. Oklahoma below Purdue? Oklahoma has a much better resume, and has beaten Purdue (albeit barely, and at home). You may be saying that by selection time Purdue will gather more wins in a weaker conference, but I'm not sure that will happen since they look like a much weaker team than OU.

Jeff said...

You have to remember that conference results will matter more than non-conference results. The fact that Oklahoma has a better win in out-of-conference is more of a tiebreak. Right now, Purdue is still my pick for 2nd in the Big Ten. Oklahoma is my pick for 3rd in the Big 12. I then assume that Oklahoma's better out-of-conference resume will keep things close.

I'm not sure we can really say the Big 12 is better than the Big 10 anyway. It's too early to take the computer rankings too seriously, but both Sagarin and Pomery rank the Big Ten slightly ahead of the Big 12. Both of them agree that the ACC, Big East, Big Ten and Big 12 are all close, although all give the ACC a tiny lead. And both put the Pac-10 a distant 5th, and the SEC an even more distant 6th.

So if you have even conferences, Purdue finishing slightly higher, and a better out-of-conference (but not dramatically) for Oklahoma... that's how I got Purdue at 1 seed higher than Oklahoma.

I'm not sold on Ohio State as a Big Ten winner, by the way. I did move them ahead of Wisconsin for third in the conference, but I feel like so far they've mostly benefited from teams playing down to them. They got Jack McClinton to get kicked out after 8 minutes. They caught a sick Harangody and an ice cold McAlarney. I view them as a little bit lucky so far. I need to see more before I'm going to put them ahead of a Michigan State squad that we know has won a lot of games together and will definitely be an elite team this year.