Saturday, January 10, 2009

Dominant Performance By Michigan State

#12 Michigan State 75, Kansas 62
This game wasn't even as close as the final score would suggest. Michigan State had a 19 point lead at the half, and got it up as high as 20 with about 10 minutes left in the game. It was a little bit surprising to see how big of a blowout this was early on, but it wasn't a surprise to see Michigan State win this one easily. They are just so deep and so tough that they can wear down any opponent. For Kansas, you can actually argue that they're just as talented as Michigan State, but the difference in experience is massive. It's no surprise that the one Jayhawks player with extensive experience (Sherron Collins) was their dominant player, leading all players with 25 points. Kansas has not yet begun their Big 12 slate, opening with Kansas State on Tuesday evening. Even though the overall computer numbers are not great (both the RPI and Sagarin put them around 50th in the nation), Kansas has some pretty solid stats, including a 4-2 record against the RPI Top 50. As we learned last year, the fact that a team is the defending National Champion does not assure them a trip back to the Tournament, and I expect Kansas to be a bubble team this season. They benefit from a relatively easy Big 12 schedule, only having to play Texas, Oklahoma and Baylor once each. With their strong out-of-conference wins, a 9-7 Big 12 record will probably be enough for a Tournament bid.

#23 Baylor 73, Texas Tech 61

Nice solid play by Baylor allowed them to overcome a pesky Texas Tech team by a deceptively wide 12 point margin. Baylor does a good job of spreading the wealth, with five players in double-digits, but one of their starters is more equal than the other, and that's LaceDarius Dunn. When Texas Tech pulled ahead by two points halfway through the second half, Dunn went off on an 11-1 run. That's 11 points for LaceDarius Dunn, and 1 for everybody else on the floor combined. Baylor now moves to 1-0 in the Big 12 and 13-2 overall, with a win over Arizona State in their pocket. A very solid start to the season for them. Texas Tech also does not rely too much on any one player, but that's more out of necessity since they lack any player good enough to carry a Big 12 team. This loss drops them to 10-6 with an RPI that has spiraled all the way out to about 90th in the nation. Of course, all is cured if they can beat Texas at home next Saturday, but without that they're going to need to go on a bit of a winning streak, because they close February with four games against ranked teams in their final seven games of the month. With losses to Lamar, UTEP and TCU, this Texas Tech team could get to 9-7 in the Big 12 and still probably fail to make the Tournament, so things aren't looking too good right now.

UMass 75, Dayton 62
UMass shot out of their minds here, dealing Dayton a very tough loss in their Atlantic 10 opener. I don't know if Dayton had some sort of travel problem, but their defense just sleepwalked through this game. UMass tore holes to the basket all day, drawing 27 fouls (while committing 10) that led to 27 free throws (while only giving up 8). When you have all of that going for you, and you also shoot 47% from behind the arc, it's very unlikely that you're going to lose. You have to wonder whether this will be another season with the middle of the Atlantic 10 pack ruining the conference's Tournament hopes by beating up on the teams that did best in their out-of-conference games. Even with this loss, Dayton is still 14-2 with wins over Marquette, Auburn and George Mason. The RPI is currently 44th. The Atlantic 10 is good enough that Dayton can lose a couple of games and still earn an at-large bid, but not too many. This is not a good start.

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