Thursday, January 08, 2009

Notre Dame Tries To Get Back In Big East Conversation

#13 Notre Dame 73, #10 Georgetown 67
This was a really important win for a Notre Dame team that had really struggled to begin their Big East season (a 10 point win and a 6 point loss to two of the worst teams in the Big East, DePaul and St. John's respectively). And I don't want to be negative in a recap of a win over a Top Ten team, but I really believe that this is an overrated win for the Irish. First of all, they didn't really address their problems, and simply won because Luke Harangody carried them (31 points on 19 shots from the field, along with 11 rebounds). They still aren't getting enough out of Tory Jackson, and they're still not getting anything at all out of anybody else (besides Kyle McAlarney, of course). They still aren't playing great defense, as 67 points is a lot to give up to a low-scoring Georgetown team (they're efficient offensively, but play at a very deliberate pace). Georgetown was just two days removed from a bruising battle with Pittsburgh, while Notre Dame's players were highly motivated after that embarrassing loss to St. John's. And besides, Notre Dame came in with 42 straight home wins, so they are incredibly difficult to beat at the Joyce Center under any situation. So even with this win, I'm not ready to put them in the discussion with UConn, Pitt and Georgetown for who will win the Big East crown. I need to see the Irish win some big games on the road, although they'll get that chance straight ahead. After a home game with Seton Hall, their next five will be against Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, Marquette and Pitt. Three of those five games will be on the road, and all will be on ESPN. And that doesn't even mention their game at UCLA, on the 7th of February. So the Irish will have plenty of chances to re-establish themselves as a true Top Ten team, but nobody (not even Luke Harangody) can win all of those games by himself.

#5 UConn 61, #22 West Virginia 55
UConn didn't play their best ball in this game, but Jeff Adrien always seems to play his best when everybody else around him is struggling. He really is the glue that holds the Huskies together. They also found some solutions to their rebounding problem with a huge performance out of Stanley Robinson (15 rebounds, 6 of them on offense). Winning the Big East is about grinding out wins like this, and I really like how consistent this year's UConn team is (compared to the horrifically inconsistent Huskies teams of the past few years). For West Virginia, this was a missed opportunity for a signature win. They have that big win over Ohio State, but that's looking like less and less of a coup with every new Ohio State loss. And other than that, they really don't have that win that gets them the national attention, even with a strong 11-3 record, and a lot of love from the computers (Pomeroy puts them #2 overall, and the Sagarin PREDICTOR has them as the third best team in the nation). In this case, I don't think I really buy those computer numbers, because I think that they're being overrated for their ability to blow away inferior teams. They also have some opponents who look better in the computers right now than they will later in the season (like Miami of Ohio). That all said, I do think West Virginia has a great opportunity with about as easy of a Big East schedule as one can have. A 9-9 Big East record should get them to the Tournament, and that seems likely when I look at their remaining schedule.

#12 Michigan State 67, Ohio State 58
Speaking of Ohio State, their fall continues with this loss at the Breslin Center. At one point, the Buckeyes were 9-0 and making their case as Big Ten contenders. Now, they're looking at three losses in their last four games, and a lot of teams ahead of them in the Big Ten standings. Personally, I think the problem is one of experience. You've got a ton of talent on this Ohio State team, but it's still raw. Evan Turner occasionally shows flashes of the first team All-Big Ten player that he'll be some day, but he's not there yet. And you've also got two very good inside players in B.J. Mullens and Dallas Lauderdale, but both are still getting used to playing regularly in college. That said, it's teams like this that improve throughout the year, because they'll gain experience with each of these tough games. They've got all of the talent needed to be a Top 25 team and a Sweet Sixteen threat when the Tournament comes around. For Michigan State, this solid victory is just more proof that they're the solid favorites in the Big Ten. They didn't have a great game out of Goran Suton, or any of their big men for that matter, but they found a way to get yet another win over yet another good team. It's possible that their top competition in the Big Ten might be Wisconsin, and even though they don't need any more help, Michigan State manages to avoid having to play the Badgers in the Kohl Center. So they have got to be overwhelming favorites right now to win the conference regular season title.

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