Saturday, January 17, 2009

Syracuse Collects A Scalp

#8 Syracuse 93, #13 Notre Dame 74
Syracuse finally collects its first win over a Top 25 team, and it came at an important part of the season. After a very easy start to their Big East schedule, they have entered a brutal stretch, and it's important that they take care of business at home, especially against a team that has struggled on the road against good opponents like Notre Dame has. Now that said, the game was no blowout, despite the final score. The lead was six with under four minutes left in the game. It never felt like Syracuse was going to lose, but it also never felt like a 19 point beat down. This is a tough loss for Notre Dame because they got their best performance out of Kyle McAlarney in some time, as the sharpshooter hit 7-for-14 from behind the arc en route to 24 points. Luke Harangody had his typical 25 points and 16 rebounds. He has collected at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in all ten games this year where he played over 30 minutes, and now averages 25 points and 13 boards per game. Tory Jackson shot poorly in this game (7 points on 3-for-13 shooting from the field), but he played well otherwise. Syracuse just did a great job feeding off the crowd (the announcers claimed that over 30,000 were in attendance) and won the game because they deserved it. They still have an outside chance at joining UConn, Georgetown and Pitt in the battle for the conference, but it's unlikely. More likely to me is that Syracuse will spend the season jockeying between fourth and seventh place in the conference. The same holds for Notre Dame.

Florida State 76, Maryland 73, OT
Maryland has a second straight heartbreaking loss in an important battle for positioning in the ACC. Maryland suffered from not having a good inside presence, because Florida State's perimeter defense is so good. It really kept the Terps from getting anything cohesive going on offense. They are still 12-5, but 1-2 in the ACC and with an RPI that has fallen to about 80th. I still think they've got an excellent shot at the Tournament, but they've got to find a way to close a game out. Two shots separate them from being 3-0 in the ACC, but instead they are 1-2 with six games left against UNC, Duke, Wake Forest and Clemson. Figuring they lose at least one of their other games, that means they're going to have to pull some an upset or two to avoid falling to 7-9. Taking into account that win over Michigan State, and the fact that the ACC is arguably the best conference in the land, it's possible for Maryland to make the Tournament after going 7-9 in conference play. But that's not where they want to be. With the win, Florida State temporarily ties Miami for fourth in the ACC with a 2-1 record. They are 15-3 overall, and their remaining schedule actually isn't that bad. There are no easy schedules in the ACC, but as far as that conference goes I'd say that the Seminoles don't have it that bad. I hesitate to call them a "likely" Tournament team because they have found a way to come up just short the past few years. But they're off to a great start this season.

Northern Iowa 81, Drake 59
When discussing the Syracuse/Notre Dame game I mentioned how the 19 point final margin was deceptively large, and that the game was much closer. Well, this 22 point victory was deceptive... It wasn't nearly that close. Drake put up one of the worst performances (relative to expectations) I have seen from a team this season. They showed no energy on offense at all, just launching three-pointers and bricking them. Drake finished the game 7-for-25 from behind the arc, but they hit their final five late in the game, after the result was long decided. They started the game 2-for-20. Their defense was also atrocious. Basically, nothing worked. They ran up the score in the final five minutes to make it a seemingly-respectable 22 point loss, but the 30-to-35 points that they trailed by for most of their second half was more indicative of way the game was really played. This loss nearly shuts the door on Drake's at-large chances, as they'd almost have to win out to earn a Tournament bid. The more pressing issue for them now is to, like Northern Iowa, jockey for position to try to get an easier route to the Missouri Valley championship game. Northern Iowa is, for the moment, in a tie with Bradley atop the conference at 5-1. Drake is in three-way tie for second with Creighton and Illinois State (in my opinion the two best teams in the conference). I would also throw 3-3 Evansville and 2-4 Southern Illinois in the contest to play for seed. The rest of the teams in the conference have no chance to win the conference tournament regardless of seeding.

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