Sunday, January 25, 2009

W-7 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

2. Duke
2. Pittsburgh
2. UCLA (PAC-10)
2. Wake Forest

3. Texas
3. Louisville
3. Arizona State
3. GONZAGA (WCC)

4. TENNESSEE (SEC)
4. Georgetown
4. Marquette
4. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

5. Syracuse
5. Clemson
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
5. Florida

6. Illinois
6. Miami (Fl)
6. Kansas
6. Purdue

7. BYU (MWC)
7. Baylor
7. West Virginia
7. California

8. Minnesota
8. Dayton
8. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
8. UNLV

9. Villanova
9. Wisconsin
9. Saint Mary's
9. Washington

10. Notre Dame
10. Florida State
10. BUTLER (HORIZON)
10. Kentucky

11. Ohio State
11. USC
11. Texas A&M
11. Oklahoma State

12. CREIGHTON (MVC)
12. LSU
12. Missouri
12. UTAH STATE (WAC)

13. SIENA (MAAC)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)

15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Providence, Michigan, Penn State, Illinois State, Utah, Arizona, Stanford, South Carolina

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Rhode Island, Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska, George Mason, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Boise State

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
NC State, Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Temple, St. John's, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Hofstra, Northeastern, UAB, Houston, Tulsa, Niagara, Bradley, Drake, Evansville, New Mexico, TCU, Washington State, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Georgia Tech, Virginia, La Salle, UMass, Richmond, Saint Louis, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida, Indiana, Colorado, Drexel, James Madison, Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Southern Miss, UTEP, Cleveland State, Wisconsin-GB, Fairfield, Buffalo, Ohio, Southern Illinois, Wyoming, Navy, Georgia, Charleston, Arkansas-LR, South Alabama, Portland, San Diego, Nevada

7 comments:

DMoore said...

Currently you have Miami as a 6 seed and Virginia Tech just out. Virginia Tech just edged out Miami today, in an overtime game at Miami. The game was really too close to show any distinction between them, but I think Virginia Tech really is the stronger team and will end up with the stronger record. Assuming these teams lose all games against the big conference foes, Miami will be 3-6 with 7 games to earn a bid. Virginia Tech will be 4-5 with 7 games to earn a bid. I think Virginia Tech will perform better than Miami down the stretch.

Jeff said...

The thing to remember about Virginia Tech is that they tend to beat the elite teams while losing to bad teams. So they might beat Duke, but they might also lose to NC State. Miami is a much more steady team, and should do a better job of taking care of their lesser ACC opponents.

Watching these two teams, I just think Miami is the better team... even with the upset Sunday.

If you look at the computer rankings, they agree with me. Both the Sagarin PREDICTOR and Pomeroy say that Miami is around the 35th best team in the nation while Virginia Tech is around the 70th best team in the nation.

If I had to pick a number now, I think Miami ends up 9-7 and Va Tech ends up 8-8. And Miami has the better out-of-conference resume. So that's why I put the teams where I did... although they'd probably be a bit closer if I had that head-to-head result to take into account Saturday night. I'm not sure if I'd put Virginia Tech in the BP65 at this moment... but they're probably the first team out at the moment.

DMoore said...

Interestingly, I agree with everything you said, and that's exactly what led me to my preference. I just value VATech's expected results more highly (an occasional big win vs. steady but not exceptional consistency). I do think VATech will slip into the field, because they are likely to collect a scalp along the way. My feeling is that in the NCAAs, VATech is the more likely team to knock a higher seed out, because they have the capability to play up to an opponent. But yes, Miami is more certain to make it into the tourney in the first place.

I don't think the current records and schedule lead to your predicted records, though. I'm going to assume neither team beats one of the big dogs (and I believe VATech has better capability for that than Miami does). For Miami to go 9-7, they will have to go 6-1 against the lesser teams -- possible, but not so simple. For VATech to go 8-8, they would have to go 4-3 against the lesser teams. I expect they will lose to some teams they could/should beat, but I think they'll do better than 4-3.

Jeff said...

Actually, one thing you can do is go through each game according to the Sagarin PREDICTOR. In case you're not aware, the Vegas numbers are basically always within 1 point of Sagarin's PREDICTOR, with the only exceptions being teams where there is some inherent bias in the general public that would cause it to gamble stupidly (such as Notre Dame football).

According to the PREDICTOR, if all of the current numbers hold, Miami would go 5-5 the rest of the way to finish 8-8, and Virginia Tech would go 3-8 the rest of the way to finish 7-9.

I'm not saying that they'll finish exactly there (since many of the spreads would only be 1 or 2 points anyway), and I would think both teams can pull at least one upset, but I'm just pointing out that there is some statistical grounding for this.

DMoore said...

I usually look at the similar predictions on kenpom.com, but I have to compare it with the eyeball factor, which tier I perceive a team to be in, and how many away games they have.

Looking at the upcoming schedules, I think it's time to swap Arizona State and UCLA in the pecking order. Arizona State's remaining strong away games are Washington & Washington State, while UCLA's are Arizona State, Arizona, Stanford & California. The conference standings may be the same, but ASU's already played the meat of their schedule.

Anonymous said...

Butler a 10? thats the 13th ranked team right? Um, you better count on them losing a couple of games. And, if they dont? You are going to be way off!

Jeff said...

I've talked about this issue with mid-majors before. The reality is that the Top 25 polls don't rank the 25 best teams, and are rather a sort of formula similar to the ATP Tour or Nascar. So teams in mid-major conferences will move up each week as they beat up on lesser competition. Butler could beat two lesser Horizon League teams by one point during a week, and they'll still move up in the polls. So with all mid-majors it's always a mistake to take their Top 25, divide by four, and think that will be their Tournament seed.

That said, I do think they'll lose a couple of games the rest of the way. They are a very young team, and are going to make some freshman mistakes at some point. As a Butler fan, you should hope that they get some more tight games and a tight loss or two, because it will really help when they make their Tournament run to have that kind of experience. That one game against Cleveland State won't do it.