Sunday, January 18, 2009

W-8 BP65

Here we are: the first BP65 after January 15th. This means that any team with even the slightest chance at an at-large bid is listed. As we go through each successive BP65, a few less teams will be listed each time as we narrow in on the final field. No team will be listed in contention for an at-large bid at any point for the rest of this season that is not listed here. Without further ado, here we go:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. UCLA (PAC-10)

2. Duke
2. Pittsburgh
2. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. Oklahoma

3. Wake Forest
3. Georgetown
3. Louisville
3. TENNESSEE (SEC)

4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Arizona State
4. Marquette
4. Florida

5. Syracuse
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Clemson
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)

6. Notre Dame
6. California
6. Purdue
6. Baylor

7. BYU (MWC)
7. Illinois
7. Miami (Fl)
7. Kansas

8. West Virginia
8. Wisconsin
8. Villanova
8. Dayton

9. Ohio State
9. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
9. UNLV
9. Minnesota

10. Maryland
10. Saint Mary's
10. Florida State
10. BUTLER (HORIZON)

11. Texas A&M
11. Michigan
11. CREIGHTON (MVC)
11. Kentucky

12. USC
12. Oklahoma State
12. LSU
12. UTAH STATE (WAC)

13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. SIENA (MAAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)

15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
15. ALBANY (AMERICA EAST)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)

16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Boston College, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Penn State, Missouri, Illinois State, Utah, Arizona, Stanford, Washington, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Rhode Island, Providence, Iowa, Nebraska, George Mason, Houston, Evansville, San Diego State, Washington State, Mississippi, Boise State

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia, Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Temple, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Hofstra, Northeastern, UAB, UTEP, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Niagara, Bradley, Drake, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, TCU, Wyoming, Alabama, Mississippi State, South Alabama

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
La Salle, UMass, Richmond, Saint Louis, DePaul, Rutgers, South Florida, Indiana, Colorado, Drexel, James Madison, Southern Miss, Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Wisconsin-GB, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Fairfield, Buffalo, Ohio, Southern Illinois, Oregon, Navy, Auburn, Georgia, Charleston, Lamar, Arkansas-LR, Arkansas State, Portland, San Diego, Nevada

4 comments:

DMoore said...

OK. Thoughts & Whining:

Wake -- listed as a 3 seed. Isn't it time to update this? The most important thing to notice is how many of their difficult games are already behind them. Their hardest remaining games are:
Home Duke
At Miami
At Duke
At Maryland
Home Clemson

If they split with Duke, lose one other tough game, and lose in the semifinals of the ACC Tourney, they'll have only 3 losses and some great scalps. Unless you see UNC going undefeated the rest of the regular season AND winning the ACC tourney, Wake will have the stronger resume.

UCLA -- listed as a 1 seed
The home loss really hurts them. They still have road games against Washington, Arizona State & Cal. KenPom projects these to all be losses, and 3 more conference losses feels about right. That will give them 6 losses on the season, which I think will drop them to a 3 seed.

Maryland -- listed as in (10 seed)
Your 7-9 conference prediction for them feels about right. But I don't see how that gets them in. The Michigan State win is devalued by Goran Suton's absence, and I don't see them getting any more scalps this season. The killer is the Morgan State loss at home. Other than MSU, they don't have any top 50 wins, and 1 very bad loss. The selection committee already frowns on teams with sub 500 conference records. The bubble would have to be incredibly thin for that resume to get in.

Jeff said...

For Wake Forest, I think that looking at their schedule is irrelevant. At some point they're going to hit reality, and we don't know when it will come. They can beat anybody and they can lose to anybody. I just do not have a great feel for them, and winning the ACC is just so incredibly difficult that I can't see how a team can do it with basically no experience whatsoever.


For UCLA, I think it's going to be between them and Michigan State for that last 1 seed. I thought hard about it, but gave UCLA the edge for now. But their hold on that last top seed is tenuous, for the reasons you listed.

And I do think that a 7-9 ACC record can get a team in. Maryland will have good computer numbers, and they'll have a couple of big wins. Also, I think the bubble is somewhat weak this year. We're likely to see an 8-10 Big East team make the Tournament, so I don't see why it's so hard to see a 7-9 ACC team make it, since the ACC is the better overall conference.

DMoore said...

Wow. I've seen a good number of Wake's games this season, and we're definitely not seeing the same team. I don't at all see them as a team that can lose to anybody. OK, their lack of experience will probably cost them a game or two. In this conference, that number of losses will still win the title. They look like the most complete team in the ACC this year (Duke=weak inside game, UNC=weak defense, Clemson=falls behind WAY too easily).

As for Maryland, you could be right. Yes, 7-9 with some marquee victories can get in. I just don't see Maryland able to collect those big wins.

Jeff said...

I'm not denying that Wake is a very good team. Let's recall that all the way back in April, while everybody else considered them a marginal Top 25 team I projected them to finish second in the ACC and collect a 2 seed. Go back and check if you don't believe me.

All I'm saying is that they are on a magical run right now, and it's not going to last forever. The mistake people often make is to watch a team play and assume that they'll always play that way. How do we explain Boston College winning in Chapel Hill and then losing at home to Harvard? Teams sometimes come out and just don't play like themselves.

At some point that is going to happen to Wake. They're going to have a bad game eventually, and I just question how such a young team is going to handle the sudden rush of huge expectations being placed upon them.