Saturday, February 14, 2009

Epic Georgetown-Syracuse Battle

#22 Syracuse 98, Georgetown 94, OT
When you consider the bubble implications and everything else, this might end up being the best game of the day. Syracuse led by 16 points with about 8 minutes to go before their foul shooting really started to kill them. I refuse to believe that it's possible that a high level Division I athlete can possibly shoot 17% from the free throw line in conference play, but that's what Arinze Onuaku was heading into this game. A loss here would have really started making Syracuse fans nervous about another NIT trip, but this win gets them back to 7-6. With wins over Florida, Kansas and Memphis out of conference, and very solid computer numbers, it's hard to see a 9-9 Syracuse team missing the Tournament. If they get to a tenth win then they'll be a lock. It's hard to see them missing the Tournament now. As for Georgetown, they really just don't look like they want to be a Tournament team. They refuse to give the ball to their best player (Greg Monroe), and they are atrocious at offense. JTIII's offensive system requires a lot of movement off the ball, and way too often I see five Hoyas standing and passing the ball around the arc. They have had a really tough schedule, but seven losses in eight games is unacceptable. They are now 4-8, and I can't fathom a 7-11 team making the Tournament out of any conference. That means that Goergetown must go at least 4-2 to finish their regular season to make the Tournament. Looking at their remaining schedule they've got three relatively easy games (at South Florida, at St. Johns, DePaul), so they've absolutely got to win all three of those games. They're still on the bubble because of great computer numbers and a number of very good wins, but at some point they've got to start winning Big East games.

#1 UConn 62, Seton Hall 54
A solid, but not great performance for UConn in their first game without Jerome Dyson. Everybody will hear about Hasheem Thabeet's 25-20-9 (that would be points, rebounds and blocks), but the underrated reason for their win today was Jeff Adrien's 14 points and 15 boards. He is the leader of the team, and he always steps up when UConn has their backs against the wall. That said, even with those two performances it took atrocious Seton Hall shooting (31% from the field), and a huge foul disparity (20-9 in team fouls, with UConn taking 21 more shots from the line) to barely survive with an eight point victory. UConn is a very thin team now, and it's going to be very tough for them to hang onto their Big East lead as long as Dyson is out. As for Seton Hall, this puts to bed their five game winning streak, even though it was a bit of a fraudulent streak as the wins were over Georgetown, St. John's, DePaul and Rutgers (twice). They end their schedule with a really brutal stretch, and I don't think there was ever reason to take Seton Hall seriously as a bubble team. They've got to win at Marquette on Tuesday night to get back in the bubble discussion.

#19 Missouri 70, Nebraska 47
I'm very impressed with the professional way that Missouri has blown through their schedule in recent weeks. With the frenetic way that they play basketball you'd expect an occasional clunker, but this now marks nine wins in their last ten games. Just two weeks ago most people didn't even view this as a Tournament team, but at this point they've nearly locked up a bid with February only halfway over. The key for Missouri from here on out will be their first two games in March, at Kansas and at home against Oklahoma. If they can split those two games then they're going to lock up a nice single digit seed. If they can win both then something like a 2 or a 3 seed is a real possibility. Meanwhile, things are starting to get bleak for Nebraska's chances. They are now 5-5 in the Big 12 with a 4-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and computer numbers well outside the Top 50. I think they've got to win five of their final six regular season games to have a plausible Tournament scenario entering the Big 12 tournament.

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