The injury bug has now hit Duke, with Mason Plumlee breaking his wrist. This will probably not have a big impact on their full season because I'd expect him back before ACC games begin. But that said, this highlights a big problem for this year's Duke team: they're very thin. They're currently ranked 8th in the nation, and I personally just do not get it. Their starting lineup is good, but not great, and they have almost nothing coming off the bench. I know that the ranking is a statement of "Coach K always figures this stuff out", but there are limits to that.
The backcourt has good players, but only three scholarship players total. Considering how Duke has historically used high-intensity man-to-man perimeter defenses, that just won't fly with three guards. Don't be surprised if Coach K actually goes with a zone as a way to protect his guards and keep them on the floor longer. Also don't be surprised to see Kyle Singler play guard, with the team effectively going with a four-forward lineup, despite the fact that Singler really is too big and slow to play an effective shooting guard in the ACC.
Obviously Duke is counting on big production out of their frontcourt, which hasn't happened in several years, and the combination of Lance Thomas, Miles Plumlee (Mason's brother) and Kyle Singler should be fine. But the bench is still very thin: Mason Plumlee and Brian Zoubek are the only players I'd trust at the moment. So we're talking about a potential eight man rotation, unless Duke gets some kind of production from Olek Czyz or Ryan Kelly.
If Duke really does finish in the Top Ten in the nation with this small of a team and the lack of any real star other than Singler, this would go down as Coach K's finest coaching performance in more than a decade.
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I really don't get this. Yes, this will slow Mason Plumlee's development, and he would have been a starter, but Duke is swimming in big guys. Czyz and Kelly will get some minutes, and Thomas and Zoubek will be very experienced, solid backups. There's not enough playing time in the front court to go around as it is.
This is a very experienced team that only lost two significant players. No, they don't have an equivalent to Henderson. But they do have an equivalent (or better) to Elliot Williams, a strong recruiting class, and another summer of improvement for 4 players with significant starting experience, plus Zoubek & Czyz. In the college game that's a very rare amount of returning talent.
Yes, they are very thin at guard. An injury there would be devastating. But until/if that happens I don't see how you overlook that much coming back.
Last season was Coach K's finest performance in a decade. But this year, he has a whole lot more to work with.
I didn't mean to argue that Plumlee's injury itself will be a big problem. I just meant that it highlights how thin the team is. Obviously we can assume that Plumlee will be back before ACC play starts, so it won't affect those games... but another injury would.
I do agree that Duke is better this year than last year, but I still think they're overrated. They may be "swimming" in big man talent, but how many of them are ACC-quality starters? I'd say Thomas is the only one (unless you count Singler as a "big man"). Zoubek has been a big disappointment. And Czyz and Plumlee did nothing last year. Unless there has been some big development in one of these players, I don't see why this frontcourt will be particularly good.
And while the three guards Duke has are good, they're only three. If you've only got three guards, you've got to have a really good frontcourt. And Duke has to prove it to me against a good opponent before I'll believe it.
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