North Carolina Has A Backcourt Problem

#4 North Carolina 88, Florida International 72
The final score suggests that this game was closer than it really was. There was never any doubt that North Carolina was the far superior team. But that said, I see some real problems with this North Carolina team that have to be fixed if they're going to get back to the Final Four. I spoke about three main things that I was looking for in this game here. I asked about whether Ed Davis will step up and be one of the best players in the nation, and nothing I saw in this game made me think that he won't. But it was almost humorous watching FIU players try to rebound against the vastly superior UNC frontcourt, so this wasn't really the best test. We'll get a better idea of where he stands later this season. I also asked about Tyler Zeller, and the answer is "Who cares?" The UNC frontcourt is so insanely good that they don't even really need Zeller's play. When a player as talented as John Henson is going to struggle to get 20 minutes per game, your team is just loaded down low. I came into this game thinking UNC had the best frontcourt in the nation, and nothing I saw changed that belief. That said, their backcourt has major problems. Marcus Ginyard is an excellent player, but he's more of a spot-up shooter on offense. And Dexter Strickland looks good, but he looked very uncomfortable when asked to play the point. Larry Drew was decent, but nothing special, and they have absolutely no back-up point guard. The real problem becomes, how does this team handle the ball? When you play at such a high tempo and don't have good ball handlers, 26 turnovers (like they had in this game) will become a far too common thing. Roy Williams may be forced to play with three guards, as he started the FIU game with, to try to spread the ball handling around. When Drew is out, maybe they try to get away with a backcourt of Strickland, Ginyard and Watts. But then that squeezes your frontcourt, which already has too many talented players. It seems like a waste to have three guards on the floor instead of two when you've already got far more talent on the frontcourt than the backcourt. But that's the dilemna facing Roy Williams right now. Considering how important guard play is in the NCAA Tournament, they're probably going to need Strickland to develop real point guard skills if they're going to make a Final Four run. And by the way, let me say that I was pleasantly surprised by the scrappiness from this FIU team. Isiah Thomas doesn't have the talent to beat a team like Western Kentucky this year, but this team will be better than last year's team. They made some stupid mistakes from time to time (such as getting trapped in the halfcourt corner a few times), but those will go away as Isiah gets more time with his kids. If he sticks around for more than two or three years, he might actually build a good team there.

#25 Syracuse 75, Albany 43
It was hard to learn too much about Syracuse because Albany was just dreadful here. I know that they were shorthanded, but that's no excuse. The fact is that undermanned teams hang with vastly superior opponents in college basketball through one of two ways: either they play scrappy and outhustle their opponents (like FIU did to stay within 20 points of UNC), or they hit their threes and keep from turning the ball over (like Winthrop and Davidson did the past few years, and the way that Albany's conference rival Vermont dispatched of Syracuse in the Tournament a few years ago). Albany doesn't have the athletes to try to outhustle Syracuse, and they are a dreadful three point shooting team (their 29% three point shooting was good for 327th in the nation last year). They let their nervousness create a lot of turnovers (32 in all), and this game turned into a layup line for Syracuse. The next Syracuse opponent is Robert Morris, a team that won't put up any more of a fight than Albany did, so we won't learn too much about Syracuse until they play California next week. But still, it was encouraging to see Syracuse manhandle this Albany team. A Tournament team destroys a team that plays the way Albany did, and Syracuse certainly took care of business.

#12 California 75, Murray State 70
This game wasn't quite as close as the final margin (Cal had the lead up to as many as 18 points in the second half), but it was still a pretty close game all the way through, and Murray State played like their usual scrappy selves in keeping this one respectable. Cal is a good team, but I warned that they might wilt a bit under the pressure of expectations this season. They played a bit lethargic, and allowed Murray State to outhustle them throughout. They will hopefully use this game as a learning experience, and slaughter a Detroit team nowhere near as good as this Murray State team tomorrow night. As for Murray State, they're not playing for an at-large bid, so they don't care what their resume is. The fact that they played this well against a team competing to win the Pac-10 is encouraging, and should buoy them as they take on some good-but-beatable opponents in the rest of their out-of-conference slate (James Madison, Western Kentucky, etc). I know that the media has picked Morehead State to win the OVC, but I picked Murray State back in April and I'm standing by that prediction. This solid performance against Cal does nothing to change my opinion.