Previewing Friday The 13th

Other than that one NC State game and the Coaches vs Cancer tournament, the regular season for everybody else begins on Friday the 13th of November. Six of the top ten teams in the nation will be in action, although none of them should be very tested. In all there will be 126 games involving Division I teams. I'll talk about a few that will interest me more than the others:

Pennsylvania at Penn State (7:30 PM ET): First of all, rivalry games are always fun in the Keystone state. Second, these are two good teams looking to get off to a good start. Penn State was, in my opinion, the best team left out of the NCAA Tournament last season. They did their best to prove me right by winning the NIT. The expectation of many (including myself) is that this team won't be quite as good this coming season, with both Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle graduating. And the Big Ten will be incredibly deep, and probably the best conference in the nation, which means that Penn State could potentially play as well as they did last season and still end up in 9th place and out of the Tournament. Talor Battle proved last season that he could carry this team on his back and win games by himself, but the Nittany Lions will have to have a good out-of-conference resume if they're going to contend for an at-large bid, especially when you consider that their weak out-of-conference resume last season was probably what kept them out of the Tournament. They cannot afford an early season loss to UPenn. The Quakers, of course, aren't thinking about at-large bids or Tournament resumes, but they should be vastly improved from the team that went only 6-8 in the Ivy League last season. They got most of their production from freshmen and sophomores, so I expect them to be much better. That said, I also expect Princeton and Harvard to be much better, and Cornell might be even better than the team that went 21-9 and fought hard against Missouri in the Tournament last season. An early season upset over a quality Big Ten opponent would immediately propel Penn into the conversation with Princeton, Harvard and Cornell atop what will be a very improved Ivy League.

Niagara at Auburn (9:30 PM ET): Auburn is devoid of well-known stars, but they are very experienced and come in with what should be a fairly deep team. I picked them to finish 2nd in the SEC West, which wasn't enough for me to put them into the BP65, but they should be good enough to be a bubble team. A loss against Niagara probably wouldn't go down as a really bad loss, but you never want to get a negative mark on your at-large resume on day one of the season. Meanwhile, don't forget that Niagara was a bubble team themselves last year - finishing with a 26-8 record and an RPI of 49th. And while they might not be better this coming season, they will still be very good. I wouldn't be at all shocked to see Niagara end up a bubble team again. And what better way to start the season than to collect a BCS conference scalp and to deal a blow to a potential contender for one of those last at-large spots?

Wright State at #13 Washington (10 PM ET): Our first look at a Washington team that I picked to win the Pac-10. There are two questions for me, the first being just how good freshman Abdul Gaddy will be, who some believe was actually the best point guard in the nation last season. The second question is how this team will replace Jon Brockman, who was just a beast inside. There aren't as many elite big men in the Pac-10 as there were last season, so Washington can win the conference without someone dominant inside, but it's a problem if Quincy Pondexter is their best rebounder (he finished second to Brockman on last year's team). Wright State will very likely be an RPI Top 100 team, and so Washington can pick up a decent win on the first day of the regular season. But Wright State fans are also probably hoping that this team can challenge a Butler team in the Horizon that I feel is probably a little bit overrated (although I'm still giving Butler a five seed right now). And there's always a chance that if Wright State could collect a big scalp like this and then avoid any bad losses that they might be able to work their way onto the bubble.

Stanford at San Diego (10 PM ET): Stanford really, really struggled down the stretch last season. They then went and lost three of their four best players, and absolutely nobody thinks they'll be a serious contender for a postseason spot. San Diego, on the other hand, is ready to bounce back after a disappointing 2008-09 season. I have them picked to finish fifth in the WCC, but they're within shouting distance of being a contender in a conference that will be weaker than last season. Stanford is a low hanging fruit as far as BCS opponents go, especially at home, and it will certainly be a great way to start the season.

New Mexico State at Saint Mary's (10:30 PM ET): Speaking of the WCC, Saint Mary's is looking to prove that they were more than just Patty Mills last season (and they were). They have the potential to work their way onto the Tournament bubble, but they're going to have to beat opponents like New Mexico State if they're going to have a real shot. Meanwhile, New Mexico State may have only gone 17-15 last season, but they return absolutely every key player and could make their own run at a WAC title or an at-large bid. Utah State will be back and possibly as good as the team that earned an 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season. And I've already said that I expect Nevada to be on the bubble this coming season. So New Mexico State could be vastly improved and still only be in third place in a conference that is very unlikely to get three Tournament teams. They're going to need a win in this game to put themselves on the radar as a potential bubble team.