Previewing November 9th

The regular season will officially begin on Monday, at 7PM eastern time. I'm going to go through a quick preview of the first week or so of games. Let's begin with the first night of the season, Monday, November 9th:

#4 North Carolina vs Florida International (ESPNU, 7PM ET): This game will likely get a lot of press because of the players involved: Isiah Thomas vs the defending champs. But this game probably doesn't deserve the attention it will get, mostly because we won't learn much. FIU is going to be terrible this season - not because of this, but because of this. North Carolina is going to blow them away. So why watch? To get the first real look at their young talent, both new and returning. Ed Davis was great last year, but can he take the leap and become one of the best players in the ACC? Can Larry Drew II be a starting point guard for an ACC champion? Can Tyler Zeller live up to the hype that he didn't quite fulfill as a freshman? And which of those star freshmen will make the biggest impact (John Henson and Dexter Strickland being the two most likely)? If I had to pick one thing to worry most about, it's Larry Drew. Davis, Zeller, Henson and Deon Thompson will likely be the best frontcourt in the ACC. And they've got plenty of talent at shooting guard with Marcus Ginyard and Dexter Strickland. But they haven't got a scholarship point guard other than Larry Drew, a player who really didn't do much last season behind Ty Lawson (1.4 points per game, 1.9 apg and 1.1 rpg). Of course, FIU may not be the best test for Larry Drew. But one way to think about it is that if Drew will be an elite ACC point guard, he'd better dominate FIU.

#25 Syracuse vs Albany (ESPNU, 9PM ET): After the Le Moyne debacle, I'm sure that Syracuse is really excited to get back on the floor for this game, and that probably means bad news for Albany. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the closest game of the day. I picked Vermont as the champion of the America East, but have Albany as their closest competitor. The Great Danes could establish themselves as a true contender in that conference on day one of the regular season if they can knock off Syracuse. The Orange, on the other hand, have some proving to do. While some people may think that Syracuse has to prove something because of that embarrassing exhibition loss to Le Moyne, I've argued that the result is pretty meaningless. Instead, I just don't think Syracuse is that good. Wesley Johnson is an outstanding pickup that wouldn't be so under the radar if he hadn't played his previous ball at Iowa State, and they've got a solid recruiting class, but too many people are assuming that it will be easy to replace the best point guard the school has possibly ever had (Jonny Flynn), it's best shooter and scorer (Eric Devendorf), and it's best rebounder (Paul Harris). The biggest question in my mind is how this team is going to score. I know that Syracuse supporters talk about their high scoring last season (Pomeroy rated their offense 11th overall), but that's deceptive. They shot only 34.9% from behind the arc (127th in Division I) and an atrocious 64.6% from the line (296th), yet shot 55.4% on two-point shots. In other words, a whole lot of dunks and layups. And those dunks and layups came from Jonny Flynn (the team was 30th in the nation with assists on 61.7% of their made field goals) and offensive rebounding (39.2% of their offensive rebounds leave them after they finished 78th in the nation with an offensive rebounding percentage of 35.6%). Other than Devendorf, the only other decent shooter on the team last year was Andy Rautins. Rautins will actually be back, but can a team really be that good if Andy Rautins is its best scorer? Syracuse might come out motivated enough to demolish Albany, but I think they're overrated enough that they might just have more of a battle than most analysts are expecting.

#12 California vs Murray State (ESPNU, 11PM ET): A lot of college basketball fans might be surprised to wake up to the 2009-10 season with Cal ranked 12th in the nation. This is a program that hasn't been a national presence since before the Todd Bozeman scandal, when they still had this guy playing for them. But I don't disagree with the ranking: I've got them as a 4 seed at the moment. I gave the reasons for this high seed back in April, when I picked them to finish second in the Pac-10. My reasoning was that "anytime you can return every single player from a team that earned a 7 seed in the Tournament you know you're in good shape." If there's one thing to look for it's whether Patrick Christopher lives up to his potential. He's already an excellent player, but every time I see him play I feel like he has the potential to be the best player in the Pac-10. We'll see if he can reach that point this season. That said, Murray State is no pushover. I have them picked to win the Ohio Valley. And it's never a bad idea to bet against a team that is getting a ton of hype in the preseason despite not having much recent success. You can never be sure that a team like the Golden Bears won't wilt under the pressure. And their first test will be Murray State.