Sunday, November 22, 2009

W-16 BP65

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)

2. Texas
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
2. West Virginia

3. Tennessee
3. Ohio State
3. Clemson
3. Michigan State

4. Minnesota
4. Maryland
4. Louisville
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)

5. California
5. Duke
5. Vanderbilt
5. Oklahoma

6. Georgia Tech
6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC 10)
6. UConn
6. Wake Forest

7. Texas A&M
7. Wisconsin
7. Michigan
7. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

8. Syracuse
8. Georgetown
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. Florida

9. Missouri
9. BYU (MWC)
9. SIENA (MAAC)
9. Arizona State

10. Mississippi State
10. UNLV
10. UTAH STATE (WAC)
10. UCLA

11. Baylor
11. Cincinnati
11. Oklahoma State
11. Illinois

12. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
12. Boston College
12. Pittsburgh
12. LSU

13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)

14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

15. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

16. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duquesne, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Penn State, Kansas State, UTEP, Tulsa, Wright State, Niagara, Bradley, Creighton, Utah, Arizona, Oregon, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Portland, Saint Mary's, Nevada

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Miami (Fl), NC State, La Salle, Rhode Island, Saint Louis, Temple, Marquette, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, South Florida, Indiana, Nebraska, Texas Tech, George Mason, Old Dominion, UAB, UCF, Houston, Valparaiso, Rider, Akron, Ohio, Evansville, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, New Mexico, TCU, Wyoming, Oregon State, USC, Arkansas, Auburn, Davidson, North Texas, Troy, San Diego, Santa Clara, Boise State, Fresno State, New Mexico State
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8 comments:

DMoore said...

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
5. Duke
8. Syracuse

Look I understand that it's "Predictions", and that you're saying how things will be at the end of the year, but have you been watching the games this season?

Duke absolutely is a top 10 team, and Syracuse is very good.

UNC just can not hold onto the ball. They've played mostly lower level teams and zone defenses and they're still averaging about 20 turnovers a game. If they ever faced a good pressure defense they could hit 40. If Texas destroys them will you at least swap those two?

November 22, 2009 7:15 AM
Jeff said...

Well, my rationale is that the winner of the ACC will almost definitely get a 1 seed. UNC is still the favorite. Their point guard play terrible right now, but I find it impossible to believe that they won't fix that ball handling problem as the year goes on. They have a bunch of very good and very talented guards - they just need to develop better ball handling skills.

And I still think Duke has more question marks than UNC does, so I think Duke is in a fight for 2nd in the ACC. I think you could easily argue for Duke as a 3 or a 4 seed after how they've been playing, but you know me - I move teams slowly up and down the bracket, and would rather under-adjust than over-adjust seeds each week.

Same goes for Syracuse. I understand how good they looked in those two games in New York, but you have to wonder how much of that was their opponents looking awful, and also how much of it was a team fired up by a crowd that was nearly as loud as a Carrier Dome crowd. There was a reason that I and the media picked Syracuse to finish in the middle of the Big East. I need to see more than two games before I completely jump on their bandwagon.

November 22, 2009 10:10 AM
DMoore said...

OK, I see some of your points. It's a long season, so there's plenty of time to see if Duke and Syracuse are for real. But I don't agree with your assessment of UNC.

The problem is that their point guard play hasn't been that bad -- Drew is averaging almost 2 assists per turnover. The issue is that pretty much every other high usage player on the team has been horrible at taking care of the ball. It's too widespread for some easy fix.

And when you say that UNC has "a bunch of very good and very talented guards", I'm at a loss to know which ones you're talking about. Ginyard has been having a decent year so far, but Carolina's perimeter players (guards & small forward) are pretty solidly in the middle of the pack as ACC players go.

November 22, 2009 1:10 PM
Jeff said...

I guess we just disagree on the guard play. I thought Marcus Ginyard was outstanding in that Syracuse game, coming back from his minor injury to nearly single-handedly will the Tar Heels back into the game. And I think Dexter Strickland and Will Graves have both looked very good.

While Drew has been a halfway decent point guard, I think he has a lot of room to grow. And a big problem UNC has is that nobody can remotely play the point when he's on the bench. I think that if you give Strickland a few months to learn how to play point guard, he'll get pretty good.

I suppose we'll see which take on the guards is correct as the year goes along, but who else do you think the favorite in the ACC is? We can't say that it's Duke until they play somebody with a good front line. Let's see what happens when they go to Wisconsin for the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

Let's not forget that as awful as UNC looked against Syracuse, it was just one game. UNC lost to Santa Clara a few years ago and went on to win the National Championship that same season. Young teams always show a ton of growth throughout a season. And they did handily beat a very good Ohio State team the day before.

November 22, 2009 1:19 PM
DMoore said...

You're right about Ginyard. I did understate how well he's been playing his season. He has been very good. I'm not seeing what you're seeing in Strickland and Graves, though.

I do think Duke appears to be the favorite now that we've seen the teams play. Duke's inside game is clearly the best they've had in terms of rebounding and scoring ability since four years ago. Duke simply has more serious scoring threats than UNC, and they do a great job of taking care of the ball.

I'm not so certain that the Wisconsin game will tell us all that much. They don't have a huge front line and haven't been a dominant rebounding team so far.

I would also like to see Maryland play to see how they compare to UNC at this point. Obviously UNC has a much better inside game, but Maryland's perimeter game over Carolina's may have just as great an advantage.

My comments about Carolina aren't simply because of the Syracuse game. They've been unable to take care of the ball in ANY game they've played so far this season. Saying they're a young team and will improve doesn't mean a whole lot -- the ACC is full of good coaches, and the rest of the conference will be improving too.

November 23, 2009 2:12 AM
Jeff said...

My point about improving is that young teams generally improve much more than old teams. Jon Scheyer is not going to improve dramatically this season, he is who he is. But Dexter Strickland has played all of four collegiate games, and I expect him to be a lot better by the end of the season.

Remember how awful Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday looked after 4 or 5 games last season, and how good they looked by the NCAA Tournament? To give you a Duke example, how about the way that Elliot Williams emerged last season?

November 23, 2009 9:47 AM
DMoore said...

Point taken. Right now, though, the Tarheel who looks ready to have a breakout season is Tyler Zeller, but he can't step in at the three where they need help, and neither of the guys he's playing behind can either. UNC really needs Graves or Henson to break through.

The other thing I'm thinking (heresy!) is that this year, I'm not so sure it's safe to slot the ACC winner in as a 1 seed. Say UNC does win the ACC. Going into conference, you'd have to project them with 3 losses. In a very wide open conference (especially with young and not necessarily consistent teams), you can probably project the ACC winner to have 4 losses in conference. Will a 7 loss team get a #1 seed?

November 23, 2009 11:17 AM
Jeff said...

That is also a good question. For now I'm assuming the ACC champ gets a 1 seed... I can't remember the last time we didn't have an ACC team get a 1 seed. Until the conference proves otherwise, I'll keep their champion as a 1 seed.

And I do agree that Zeller showed flashes of a breakout season against Syracuse, I just don't think it's as important - even if Zeller stinks it up, UNC has so much frontcourt talent that they'll still have a great collection of forwards. Their success this season will depend on guard play - we KNOW their forwards are good.

November 23, 2009 12:41 PM

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