Sunday, December 13, 2009

W-13 BP65

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)

2. Texas
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
2. West Virginia

3. Tennessee
3. Michigan State
3. Duke
3. Syracuse

4. Clemson
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Georgetown
4. GONZAGA (WCC)

5. Ohio State
5. California
5. UConn
5. Minnesota

6. Texas A&M
6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Vanderbilt
6. Florida

7. Louisville
7. Maryland
7. Wisconsin
7. Wake Forest

8. New Mexico (MWC)
8. Arizona State
8. Mississippi State
8. Missouri

9. BYU
9. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
9. Kansas State
9. Cincinnati

10. UNLV
10. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
10. Georgia Tech
10. Oklahoma

11. Illinois
11. Baylor
11. Mississippi
11. Michigan

12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. Oklahoma State
12. UTAH STATE (WAC)
12. Xavier

13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)

15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Florida State, Miami (Fl), NC State, Rhode Island, Temple, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Texas Tech, Tulsa, Missouri State, San Diego State, Arizona, Washington State, South Carolina, Portland, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Boston College, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Notre Dame, St. John's, South Florida, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, Old Dominion, William & Mary, UAB, UTEP, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Bradley, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Utah, UCLA, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Louisiana Tech, Nevada

Other teams that I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Virginia, Charlotte, Duquesne, George Washington, La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, Indiana, Colorado, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, Central Florida, Southern Miss, Loyola-Chicago, Harvard, Iona, Niagara, Ohio, Western Michigan, Creighton, Indiana State, TCU, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Stanford, Georgia, San Diego, Idaho

4 comments:

DMoore said...

Syracuse looks legit, and they actually have some decent wins already mixed into their annual early season diet of home cream puffs. I would think they are more likely than Villanova to win the Big East this year. Villanova is very good, but they are completely dependent on three point shooting. They may have consistency issues that cause them to lose an extra game or two when their shooting is off.

Is Washington a 2 seed just because someone has to win games in the Pac 10?

Also, at what point do the ratings (Sagarin & Pomeroy) start to become fairly valid measures of where teams really stand? There are a lot of teams that are highly ranked in the polls that are nowhere near the top of the computer rankings. Do we have to wait until teams actually are forced to play road games? I'm not sure there's a ranked team in the country who has actually won a significant true road game yet.

Jeff said...

Syracuse does look legit, but I do want to see them play like this in conference play before I put them over Villanova. Nova is more experienced and has much better guard play - obviously they will lose to just about anybody in the Big East if they're not shooting well, but when they ARE shooting well (which is every time I've watched them play) they're nearly unbeatable. Honestly, it's very hard for me to separate the four best Big East teams. I could easily see West Virginia or Georgetown winning the conference also.

As for Washington, they're a 2 seed because I'm thinking they're going to roll the Pac-10 with something like a 15-3 or 16-2 record. If they win the conference but go 14-4 or 13-5 then they'll drop to a 3 or 4 seed. The Pac-10 this year is really bad, so the only way a team will get a high seed will be if they roll the conference.

And as for the computer rankings, I'll tell you exactly the way I use them right now: as a way to see which teams overachieved and underachieved. There are some teams that have a much higher ELO_CHESS than PREDICTOR, and those teams tend to have a bad Pomeroy ranking as well, as well as a good Pomeroy Luck rating. Those teams have overachieved. There are other teams with the opposite of that, and those are teams that have underachieved. So we can look at those teams and say that their final resume will probably be worse/better than it is now. A good example I gave recently was Minnesota, which has a very mediocre resume but great computer numbers, so the computers suggest they should play a lot better from here on out.

But I'm not sure we should say things like "Sagarin has a team 11th, so they should get a 3 ssed" yet. There are still fairly big margins of errors. And the RPI is still pretty messed up, of course. And you're right that we need to see what teams do in true road games. Many top teams haven't played a true road game yet. So let's not take anything too seriously until we see if these teams can win in hostile crowds.

Anonymous said...

I don't see how UAB is not in this bracket. You said they need to do a little more work. They beat Green Bay (who won at #23 Wisconsin), South Alabama (who won at #18 Florida), #25 Cincinnati, and #16 Butler. UAB resume right now is better than most teams currently in the Top 25. Yet you have Memphis who hasn't beat anyone of note as a #8 seed. If the Dance started today UAB would be in and Memphis would be out.

Jeff said...

Anonymous, please read "About the BP65". This is not a rating of where teams would be if the Tournament was today.