Can The Mountain West Get Four Bids?

San Diego State 74, #14 New Mexico 64
New Mexico and BYU both look to be well on their way to earning at-large bids, and there is almost no doubt that the Mountain West will be a multi-bid league, but if they make it to four bids it will likely come down to two bubble teams: UNLV and New Mexico. Four teams would be a big number this year because the Pac-10 will almost surely get no more than three, and the SEC could potentially be a three bid league as well, and I can't remember a case in recent memory where a mid-major conference got more bids than two different BCS conferences. San Diego State doesn't have any household names on the squad (although Malcolm Thomas might become one if they make the Tournament and win a game), but their strength is depth, with a solid nine man rotation. They suffocated New Mexico, and out-hustled them all game long. They won the rebounding battle by nine, forced 11 steals, and held the Lobos to 35% shooting from the field. San Diego State went 11-3 out-of-conference, but Arizona was their only RPI Top 100 win, and they have a weak loss to Pacific. This is clearly their best win, but even with this scalp they'll probably have to go at least 11-5 in the Mountain West to earn an at-large bid. As for New Mexico, they haven't locked up anything but even with this loss their resume is still very, very good. They went 14-1 out-of-conference with wins over California, Texas A&M, Dayton and Texas Tech. They'll have to lose more than one conference game before there's any reason to be worried about their at-large chances.

#11 Michigan State 54, #20 Wisconsin 47
This was a fairly ugly game in all aspects. Neither team could shoot at all, going well below 30% in the first half before finishing up at 38% (Michigan State) and 33% (Wisconsin). The refs also left the players free to wrestle in the paint and jump over each other's backs for rebounds, and that played into the hands of Michigan State, which is bigger, deeper and stronger than Wisconsin. The Spartans managed to win without a good game from Kalin Lucas, who was only 3-for-13 from the field with ten points and one assist total. I still don't think anybody in the Big Ten is seriously going to challenge Purdue, but Michigan State will get their chance in February when they play a home-and-home with the Boilermakers and also play at Wisconsin. As for Wisconsin, they continue to struggle to run their offense against teams that pressure out on the perimeter, which bodes poorly for Saturday's game against Purdue, the team that has owned them more than any other team in the nation the last few years because of their long, athletic backcourt. But Wisconsin is always tough to beat at home, so they'll have their chances.

#7 Syracuse 74, Memphis 57
This game was more about coaching than anything else. Memphis fought this game to a draw in the first half with sharpshooting behind the arc (7-for-15), which is the way to defeat a team that plays a zone like Syracuse. But Jim Boeheim made the right adjustments at halftime, pushing his zone out and forcing Memphis to take more contested shots and forcing them to only go 2-for-13 on threes. Josh Pastner didn't have an answer, and in the end this game wasn't even particularly close. Memphis is 10-4, but they have lost against every good opponent they've played (their best win is over Oakland), including a couple of very close losses. I think part of that has to be their inexperienced head coach, because the players themselves are actually fairly experienced. Their RPI is 105th, but the team is obviously much better than that and is still firmly in the bubble picture. Although if they can't beat Gonzaga in their final out-of-conference game on February 6th then they will need to run through Conference USA or else win the conference tournament. Still, considering the fact that they've won 49 consecutive regular season games in Conference USA, it's not out of the question for them to put up a good enough record to get back to the NCAA Tournament. As for Syracuse, this was a solid way to come back from their first loss of the season, against Pittsburgh last weekend. They now get two pretty easy warm-ups (vs South Florida, at Rutgers) before a road game at West Virginia that will go a long way toward determining whether Syracuse will win the Big East.