Sunday, January 24, 2010

W-7 BP65

Not too many teams were completely eliminated from bubble contention this week, but I do think that the field of likely Tournament teams has shrunk a lot. Teams are really starting to distinguish themselves.

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. Texas
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)

2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. West Virginia
3. Michigan State
3. Georgetown
3. Ohio State

4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Clemson
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
4. Tennessee

5. Kansas State
5. North Carolina
5. Missouri
5. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)

6. Pittsburgh
6. Wisconsin
6. Florida
6. UConn

7. Georgia Tech
7. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
7. Washington
7. Wake Forest

8. Arizona State
8. BYU
8. Louisville
8. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)

9. Baylor
9. Mississippi
9. Xavier
9. Vanderbilt

10. Minnesota
10. Cincinnati
10. Mississippi State
10. UNLV

11. Illinois
11. Texas A&M
11. Maryland
11. Dayton

12. Oklahoma State
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

13. CORNELL (IVY)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)

14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)

15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Florida State, Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, Richmond, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Northwestern, UAB, Tulsa, Wichita State, San Diego State, Saint Mary's

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
NC State, Charlotte, Marquette, St. John's, Seton Hall, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, William & Mary, Marshall, UTEP, Missouri State, Arizona, Washington State, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Boston College, Virginia, La Salle, Saint Louis, Providence, South Florida, Iowa State, Nebraska, Northeastern, VCU, Harvard, Iona, Illinois State, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Georgia, Portland, Nevada

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, George Washington, DePaul, Rutgers, Northern Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Colorado, Pacific, George Mason, UCF, Houston, Southern Miss, Detroit, UW-Green Bay, Wright State, Fairfield, Akron, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Bradley, Creighton, Colorado State, TCU, Oregon State, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU

22 comments:

DMoore said...

Purdue a 1 seed? How? Right now they're 4-3 in conference, and they have three games remaining where they'll be underdogs (at Michigan State, at Ohio State, and at Minnesota). Michigan State is 7-0 in conference, and only has two games remaining where they'll be underdogs (at Wisconsin and at Purdue).

Purdue has very little chance of winning the Big Ten regular season. Even winning the tournament after 5 losses in conference (extremely likely at this point) won't earn them a 1 seed.

Jeff said...

Michigan State is 7-0, but you are underrating their upcoming schedule. They have a whole bunch of road games, and over the past few years they have been far better at home than on the road. I think that they and Purdue will finish within one game of one another, and Purdue still has a decent shot at a share of the Big Ten title. I'll be surprised if anybody gets to 15-3 in Big Ten play. Pomeroy projects Michigan State to get to 14-4, which sounds about right to me.

The thing keeping Purdue from a 1 seed, more likely, is actually a Big East team. Villanova keeps managing to win these close games that they're supposed to lose, so if they can continue along and can win the Big East regular season and tournament title then they will be the fourth 1 seed. Syracuse also can win the 1 seed if they win both titles.

DMoore said...

OK, that makes more sense to me.

BTW, Florida State continues to keep themselves alive by winning the games they need to win. I see your point about their weak offense, but their defense is excellent -- they held Lawal, Favors & Shumpert to a combined 25 points today.

Jeff said...

Yeah, I watched most of the second half of the FSU/GT game this afternoon, and while Florida State still can't shoot for their lives they do get enough points off of turnovers that they can win a lot of games. With that win I'm leaning towards putting them in the bracket next weekend. They were the first team out of the bracket I put together last night.

brentj said...

BYU at an 8? Seriously? Right after they go on the road and win at Top-50 RPI SDSU to push their record to 20-1?

Their wins over UTEP, Arizona, ASU etc are looking better and better. I think you are in the minority with that 8 seed. What do you know that everyone else doesn't?

Mike said...

You have UNM as the MWC autobid team with a 4 seed. UNM is 4-2 in conference. BYU is 5-0 and an 8 seed.

It might make sense to switch those two teams.

Anonymous said...

Jeff, you make no sense at all.

UNC a 5 seed when they will be hard pressed to make it as a bubble team. You site that Purdue is a 1 seed based on Pomeroy projections and yet you have BYU an 8 seed. What in the world does Pomeroy have BYU at? THEY ARE 4th in the country. They just beat SDSU when no one has beat SDSU at home over the past two years. Talk to me next week after BYU beats NMU at their house.

Jeff said...

Guys, please read "About the BP65". This is not a representation of where the teams are now, but where I believe they'll finish.

DMoore said...

I think the question still stands about BYU vs. UNM. I would think you'd have to project at least two more losses in conference for UNM (at BYU and UNLV), and the same number for BYU (at UNM and UNLV). BYU is up by two games because they won two difficult games that UNM lost (at SDSU and home against UNLV). I don't see how UNM makes up those losses. I also don't see how UNM leaps BYU in seeding if they lose the regular season but win the MWC tourney, as they have a bad loss (Oral Roberts) that BYU doesn't have. I also think BYU will be seen in a brighter light because of the publicity of having an all american candidate.

Jeff said...

The capitalized teams are the automatic bid champions, not the regular season champions. Even if BYU wins the regular season title, I still like New Mexico to beat them in the title game.

And the Selection Committee has never shown any kindness on teams just because they have an All-American candidate, so I don't think that will help BYU.

If either BYU or New Mexico runs undefeated through the Mountain West the rest of the way then of course their seed will jump way up. I just find that unlikely - it's very difficult to win on the road in that conference.

brentj said...

I understand what you are saying Jeff, but you have to expect the traffic. In the Bracket Project's Matrix you have given BYU their worst seed out of the 44 participating bracket. You have to expect some heat.

I agree about winning on the road in the MWC. BYU went in and won at SDSU on Saturday night. SDSU had not lost a home game since... BYU went in and beat them last year. :)

Jeff said...

I know, I'm used to it. I tend to be out of whack with the Bracket Matrix at this stage in the season, but it seems as if I'm more often correct than they are. For example, about half of the brackets still have Virginia in the field, which is a joke. Of course they got a ton of Top 25 votes as well... also a joke. I'd gamble on 1-to-100 odds of them not making the field.

Look, BYU is a really good team. If you go through my blog I've had some nice things to say about them this season. And if they win at New Mexico this week then I'll probably move them into position as the favorite to win the auto bid. I'll see how those two teams look against each other, to see how their strengths match up with their weaknesses in their first actual head-to-head contest.

brentj said...

Yeah. I was going to make the same point. We can argue all we want, but Wednesday night's game is going to answer most of the questions.

If BYU can win or keep it close, they should be the favorites down the road. If UNM runs away with it, then BYU might have some problems.

Anonymous said...

I know it's about where you think they will finish, but can you address why you think UAB will finish out of the tourney?

Even if they don't win the tournament, I see being, at worst a 25-5 team before the tourney. Losses @ Memphis, @ UTEP, and MAYBE one more loss.

Their resume isn't good enough to get in at 25-5?

Jeff said...

If UAB finishes 25-5 then they will have a very good shot of getting in, but I don't agree that it's the worst they will do. In fact, I just pulled up Pomeroy's profile of them, and his computers have their expected final record as 24-6.

I'll throw some numbers out: UAB's RPI is 26th, but Pomeroy has them 52nd, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 21st and their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 52nd. So even if we didn't know anything about this team, those numbers tell us that they'd be in the Tournament if the season ended now, but their record is better than they really are, and they will more likely than not miss the Tournament in the end.

The fact is that Conference USA has four teams that are all on the bubble right now, and it's hard to separate them. Depending on what happens in other conferences, it's possible that they'll get as many as three Tournament teams, but it's also possible that they'll be a one-bid league. And I've been sticking with Memphis as the tournament champion because they have the psychological advantage of winning for so many straight years, and they have the most pure talent. It doesn't hurt that Pomeroy & Sagarin both agree that Memphis is the best team.

UAB has five key games against those teams: a home-and-home with Memphis, a home-and-home with UTEP, and a home game against Tulsa. If they can go 3-2 in those games and avoid no more than one other loss then they'll get to 25-5 and more likely than not they'll be an at-large team (assuming they avoid a really bad performance in the C-USA tournament).

GlobalGreenQueen said...

Jeff, what about Northwestern!!!!! They are 14-5 and 3-4 in conference. If they end up going 500 in conference, which is a very likely possibility, shouldn't they be in the tourny? They have some very high quality wins, including Purdue, NC State, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Iowa State and there only losses have come against teams that are in your 65 team field. And, they have played the harder portion of their Big Ten schedule, with teams like Indiana, Minnesota, Iowa, and Penn State coming up. How would they not make the field?

Jeff said...

Northwestern is a very tough call because in so many ways they're a prototypical bubble team. I agree that 9-9 is their most likely final record, and I just checked Pomeroy and his computers also expect a 9-9 finish. If Northwestern goes 10-8 then they're probably in the Tournament, and if they're 8-10 then they're probably out, but at 9-9 they're going to be right on the bubble. It's going to come down to how they play in the Big Ten tournament and how good the rest of the bubble teams are.

DMoore said...

Northwestern is the perfect bubble team this season. One of the problems they have is that's very difficult to tell how good they are because they have no bad losses, but only 1 notable win (Purdue). They split home and home with Illinois, another bubble team.

On the other hand, I would give Northwestern the nod over Illinois, who you can project to have the same 9-9 conference record. Although Illinois has two notable wins (Clemson and Vanderbilt), they aren't THAT impressive, and they have much weaker losses to Bradley, Utah and Georgia.

Anonymous said...

Utah and Georgia are not bad loses. Both have beat some of the best teams in the nation.

BYU an 8 seed, what a joke! Even if they lost to UNM and UNLV at the Pitt and Mack. BYU still gets a seed of 6 or better. Duke can't win on the road and that never hurts their seeding. BYU will beat New Mexico this week.

Anonymous said...

You really think Florida will end up being worthy of a 6 seed and Vandy will only merit a 9? Really?

Anonymous said...

I'm not surprised you didn't address the Vandy prediction, it'll be interesting to see if you stay stubborn and keep them a 9 seed in your next projection.

Jeff said...

I don't respond to every single post. When people present factual arguments then I pretty much always find time to respond. If it's just another "You ranked my team too low, you're a moron" post then I only respond if I have the time. If they're really nasty then I intentionally ignore it. Yours wasn't particularly bad, I just didn't have the time to get to it until now.

I'm actually planning on moving Vanderbilt up because of their impressive road victory last night. I don't think anybody expected that one (If you did you could have made a lot of money in Vegas).

I'll have you know that this blog actually got a lot of traffic from the Vandy basketball message boards a few months ago when I had very nice things to say about them preseason, where I was one of the only people who viewed them as a Top 25 caliber team. It's always amusing to me how quickly people decide that I love or hate their team based on how my expectations differ from theirs.