Sunday, January 17, 2010

What Is Wrong With Purdue?

Northwestern 72, #6 Purdue 64
Purdue actually played a good game against Wisconsin at the Kohl Center last week, and just loss a narrow game to a really good Wisconsin team that is nearly impossible to beat at home. They followed that game up by playing really well in the first half at home against Ohio State, but they allowed Evan Turner to go wild in the second half and suffered their second straight loss against a really good opponent. But then this happened, a completely clunker at Welsh-Ryan Arena, where absolutely nothing went right. Northwestern is a tough team to beat on their home arena in any condition, but Purdue lost this game more than Northwestern won it. They shot 36% from the field, including 23% behind the arc, and actually got fairly solidly beaten on the boards. Purdue isn't a very big team, but they usually win the rebounding battle because they're athletic and do a great job of hustling. And suddenly the team that seemed to be obviously the best team in the Big Ten has lost three straight and is in a three-way tie for seventh in the conference standings. Of course, they still have a shot to win the Big Ten regular season title. Michigan State is undefeated, but still has to play a home-and-home against Purdue. And the other key Big Ten contenders (Wisconsin and Ohio State) both have at least two losses each already. And because Purdue is (in my opinion) still the best team in the Big Ten, I still view them as the favorite to win the automatic bid and contend for a 1 seed in the Tournament. But they've absolutely got to turn this around in their next game. Four straight losses has to be unacceptable. As for Northwestern, they are again making a really good run at that first ever NCAA Tournament bid. They deserve a lot of credit for how they've managed to steal a few big wins (Notre Dame, Iowa State, Purdue) while grinding out games and avoiding any bad losses. Their RPI is up to 58th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 47th, so they'd more likely than not be in the NCAA Tournament if things ended now. But their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 71st, and Pomeroy puts them 65th, which means that the computers don't think that they're good enough to keep up this pace. They enter a brutal stretch now, at Ohio State before getting Illinois at home, then playing road games at Minnesota and Michigan State. As well as they've played, Northwestern is only 2-3 in the Big Ten, and they've got to split those next four or they're going to have ground to make up to earn that at-large bid in February and March.

#24 Baylor 83, Oklahoma State 70
LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter both just had great games here. Dunn's 25 points, including 4-for-9 from behind the arc, got most of the media attention, but Carter's eight assists and very efficient nine points (3-for-4 from the field) deserve a lot of the credit as well. Baylor's defense also deserves credit for forcing Oklahoma State to be inefficient on offense. James Anderson got his 20 points, like he always does, but it took him 17 shots to get there. This was an important win for a Baylor team coming off a disappointing loss to Colorado that has raised questions about whether they're a legitimate Top 25 team. They move to 14-2 with a number of solid wins (Xavier, Arizona State, Oklahoma State), but nothing that really will set them apart on Selection Sunday. They get a chance for that big win on Wednesday night when they head to Kansas. As for Oklahoma State, they fall to 1-2 in Big 12 play and face a near must-win home game against Colorado. They follow that up with a road game at Kansas State, and need to get off to a good start in Big 12 play. Beginning February 17th they have a really brutal final few weeks of Big 12 play, and you have to figure that Travis Ford wants that at-large bid to be locked up before then. But their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has fallen to 55th, so there's no guarantee that they're good enough to grab that at-large bid.

Cincinnati 60, Notre Dame 58

This was an extraordinarily close game. There were only a few possessions in the entire game where one team was beating the other by more than three or four points. In the end, Yancy Gates made the winning basket with about two seconds left, but this game clearly could have gone either way. For Cincinnati, this win gets them back to 3-3 in the Big East, with a fairly easy stretch coming up. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 41st, so they'd almost definitely be in the Tournament if the season ended now, but they've got to take care of business when they have the chance over the next few weeks. Notre Dame, on the other hand, would definitely not be in the Tournament if the season ended now, but they are on the bubble and only one or two big wins from being right back in the bracket. They are now 3-2 in the Big East with a couple of tough upcoming opponents (Syracuse and Villanova are among their next three opponents) but then have a very easy stretch over the next three weeks. If they can pull off one upset over a highly ranked team and get to 9-9 in the Big East then they'll be in the discussion on Selection Sunday.

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