Thursday, February 11, 2010

W-4.5 BP65

I'm at the point of the season where I do brackets twice weekly. The next bracket will be out after the completion of Saturday night's games.

There were a lot of comments after the last BP65, and one poster got out of control and I had to turn comment moderation on, so let's try to keep things more civil this time. If you express a question or disagreement with facts and numbers then I can pretty much guarantee that I will respond. But if all you do is name call and behave abusively, I will be forced to take action. Besides, I can save you the time. If I'm not seeding your favorite team as high as you think they deserve then, yes, I do hate your team. And no, I don't know anything about college basketball.

Now that that's out of the way, let's get to the newest bracket. Remember, this is not how things stand now, but how I think they'll end up being on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Syracuse
2. Georgetown
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. Kansas State
3. West Virginia
3. Texas
3. Ohio State

4. Wisconsin
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)
4. Michigan State
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)

5. Wake Forest
5. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
5. Pittsburgh
5. Baylor

6. Tennessee
6. Missouri
6. Georgia Tech
6. BYU

7. Maryland
7. CALIFORNIA (PAC 10)
7. Vanderbilt
7. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)

8. Clemson
8. Texas A&M
8. Xavier
8. UNLV

9. Washington
9. Oklahoma State
9. Louisville
9. Illinois

10. Mississippi
10. Florida
10. SIENA (MAAC)
10. Saint Mary's

11. CORNELL (IVY)
11. Dayton
11. Cincinnati
11. Florida State

12. Minnesota
12. UConn
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
12. Virginia Tech

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. KENT STATE (MAC)

14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. PACIFIC (BIG WEST)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)

15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)

16. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LAFAYETTE (PATRIOT)
16. QUINNIPIAC (NORTHEAST)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
North Carolina, Charlotte, Richmond, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, UAB, UTEP, San Diego State

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Marquette, South Florida, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Tulsa, Wichita State, Arizona State, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Virginia, Seton Hall, Iowa State, Northeastern, VCU, William & Mary, Marshall, Iona, Missouri State, Colorado State, Arizona, Washington State, Portland, Louisiana Tech

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Boston College, NC State, Duquesne, La Salle, Saint Louis, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, Northern Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Colorado, Nebraska, George Mason, Southern Miss, Wright State, Harvard, Akron, Illinois State, Indiana State, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Nevada

57 comments:

Evilmonkeycma said...

Why do you think that Cincinnati, whose best wins thus far are Vandy and Maryland, has only one home opportunity against a great team (Nova), and has a distinct inability to win on the road (see: 2 point loss to St. John's, 18 point loss to Notre Dame), is in, while South Florida (wins over top-5-line teams G'town and Pitt, likely to make it to 10-6 in the BEAST, strong road record) and Marquette (wins over G'town and the X, opportunity for win against Pitt, has shown flashes of greatness and flashes of sucking) don't even make the final cut?

I've been a fan of your site for a few years, but I have less positive feelings about your predictions this year as opposed to previous years.

DMoore said...

Evil-
I would point out that by the end of the year those wins against Vandy and Maryland will look better and better. I would predict that Vandy will end up second in the SEC, and Maryland will end up second in the ACC by the end of the year. Using the eye test those two are playing great ball right now, and are playing better than their resumes.

The question is how Cincinnati finishes. They have much better opportunities for big wins than the other two schools. The flip side is that they could easily get knocked out playing all those strong teams.

Chris said...

Was at the Richmond v URi game last night. What a great game. Wish the outcome was a bit different. Really think both teams deserve a bid.

The top of the conference w/Temple, Xavier, URI, Richmond, Charlotte, & Dayton is going to be a battle come the end of the season.

My guess is 4 of the 6 make it. Would like to see 5 make it though.

Jeff said...

I think we'll know about whether Cincy will be in the Tournament within a week, with those two key road games (UConn, USF) this week. If they can at least split those, take care of business at home the following week and then win one of those three final games (at WVU, vs Nova, at Gtown) then it's hard to see them missing out.

Cincy is hard to figure out because their two stars (Gates & Stephenson) are so good, yet so inconsistent. Those two can disappear at times and they can lose to anybody. But when those two are focused and motivated they can easily beat one of those three elite teams.

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Anonymous said...

Purdue would basically have to win out to get a one seed. Good luck with that.

Anonymous said...

No way Syracuse is a 2. They don't need to win the conference tourney to get a 1. Currently 24-1 and will either finish 28-3 or 27-2.

Anonymous said...

I don't see how Gonzaga gets a 2 seed. I'd have to do some research by I doubt anyone with a sub 200 RPI loss has gotten a seed that high. Their proejcted RPI is in the mid 30s. You can't get a 2 with that.

Anonymous said...

West Virginia will get higher than a 3. Projected end of season top 5 RPI with no bad losses and a handful of tournament wins including OOC against OSU.

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Anonymous said...

Can't see how UConn makes it in unless you're projecting them to win the conference tourney which seems pretty silly. They have to get to 8-10 in Big East play just to have a chance, and at 4-7 right now and will only be favored to win three of their remaining seven.

Anonymous said...

Old Dominion as a 13 is a joke as well. They're 11-3 in a good Colonial with a projected end of season RPI in the low 30s. Plus, they won @ Georgetown. Pretty similar resume as to Utah St. last year (who got an 11) and Kent St. two years ago (who got a 9).

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Anonymous said...

Why so little love for the A-10? They deserve more than 3 bids, likely 4-5. It is one of the few exciting conferences this year, getting separation at the top unlike other BCS conferences.

Anonymous said...

I'd say the odds of the A10 getting three bids or less is less than 5%. One of the many mistakes on this bracket.

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Jeff said...

Alright guys, let's settle down. We already covered the fact that I don't know anything about college basketball, that I'm a moron, and that I hate your favorite team.

You're allowed to call me stupid, but when it becomes angry antagonism and abuse then those comments become deleted. Do not ruin it for other people who would like to have an intelligent discussion about college basketball, please.

Thank you.

Robby Donoho said...

My thoughts: I'm a Purdue student and completely disagree with the Boilers being a 1-seed. Yes, we have 4 RPI Top 25 Wins, but Syracuse definitely deserves it ahead of us. Gonzaga is WAY too high at a 2. I'd probably but them at a 4. I know they've had some great out of conference wins over WISC & ILL, but still. Texas needs to drop down to a 4 or 5. They have looked pretty bad as of late, and Michigan State even though with 3 straight losses still should be a 3-seed. Remember, all 3 have been without a healthy Kalin Lucas. Wisconsin should also be moved up to a 3-seed even with the loss at home to ILL. Wake might be a bit high at a 5 right now, but they are definitely working their way back up. CAL won't be a 7-seed if they win the Pac-10. They only have 1 victory over a Top 50 RPI team, so probably a 9 or 10 for them. Illinois should be at a 7 or 8 after the win at WISC, Florida would be OUT of the Tourney right now after the loss last night to South Carolina, Minnesota has no business being in the Tourney right now, and how do you not give respect to the A-10? Rhode Island, Richmond, and Charlotte are ALL in the Tournament right now. Not a bad mock-up but some work needed. Thanks for the contribution.

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Anonymous said...

Robby - you are giving way to much credit to what teams have done as of now. This is a projected end of season bracket.

Anonymous said...

I hate the argument that Michigan St. shouldn't move down because of Lucas' injury. First off, you can't take every little injury into consideration. Some get more publicity than others. I mean, Ubiles missed a handful of games, but do you think the committee is going to realize that and seed Siena 1-2 seeds higher? Of course not. Wisconsin was crushing Michigan St. when Lucas got injured, and who says Illinois wouldn't have beat them at home even with Lucas playing? Lucas might not have been 100%, but he did play against Purdue (and scored 12 points). The Boilermakers completely dominated most of that game.

Robby Donoho said...

My mistake, usually people who create their Brackets at this time are doing it as to where the teams are RIGHT NOW.
Very well, let me re-phrase myself. Michigan State will not be a 4 at the end of the season, and I think we all know that. Gonzaga won't be a 2 at the end of the season. They won't get any more solid wins in the WCC. Texas WON't be a 3 at the end of the year with their poor play stretch as of right now. Butler won't be a 4 after playing in the Horizon. Temple will be higher after winning the A-10 Tourney (which was predicted) since they will have wins over Dayton, Xavier, Rhode Island. etc. The Pac-10 will not have 2 teams in at the end of the season. 1 will make it and that will be the conference tourney winner. Minnesota and UConn will fail in making the Tourney since their good wins at the beginning and middle of the year are looking worse and worse. Plus, if Western Kentucky wins the Sun Belt, with their track record and history there's no way in the world they would be a 16-seed. There, is that better?

Robby Donoho said...

The Selection Committee ALWAYS takes into account teams who don't have their best player or better players because of injury, especially since it's a short period of time that the player is being affected.

Anonymous said...

Why does everyone think Michigan St. is so worthy of a high seed? Their best win OOC was at home over Gonzaga, and their next best was over Wofford. They lost to Florida and UNC OOC which aren't good losses. I'm not sure why everyone makes them out to be these giant killers. Their bench is terrible and even Summers and Allen aren't anything special.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, they will take it into account, but they will also say - they were already getting crushed by Wisconsin when he left, @ Illinois is a losable game with/without him, and he played against Purdue.

Anonymous said...

Totally agree with you about Gonzaga. I already mentioned that earlier.

Anonymous said...

Western Kentucky can absolutely be a 16. They're 13-12 for crying out loud!

Anonymous said...

Not sure how you can predict Lafayette to win the Patriot. They don't have the best record, or Sag, Pom, Elo, or RPI numbers you seem to love using. Lehigh or Navy would really be the only logical options.

Jeff said...

Actually, Robby, the Selection Committee does not always take into account injuries. The most glaring example in recent memory was actually last season, when St. Mary's was kept out of the Tournament even though they clearly were deserving of a bid if you take out the games where they were missing Patty Milles.

I do think that there has to be a balance, where you are taking into account how good the teams are that actually would show up on the floor during March Madness, but also not allowing a team to get a free pass just because a player missed a couple of games.

For example, I think Michigan State beats Illinois if Kalin Lucas plays, but they were getting slaughtered for the first 30 minutes of the Wisconsin game even before Lucas was hurt. So you can't discount that Wisconsin loss just because Lucas missed the final ten minutes.

Jeff said...

As for the question about the Patriot League, I've actually made my decision there based on match-ups. Lafayette is tied for 2nd place with Navy, and Lehigh is in the lead. But Lafayette has played those two teams on the road, and not yet at home. They beat Navy and lost to Lehigh. The win over Navy means I certainly give them the edge there, but Lehigh is going to come down to the home game coming up. If Lehigh wins at Lafayette on February 20th then they become the clear favorites to win the conference title.

But to be honest, I haven't watched more than a few minutes of live Patriot League action this year. So all I have to go on are numbers and stats, so if you have any real information on particular match-up problems between the top teams in the league, I'd love it for the inside info.

Robby Donoho said...

I meant the short-term injuries. Not the long-term like Patty Mills had. Also St. Mary's probably doesn't get the respect they deserve since they play in the WCC.
And I know WKU is 13-12, but they still have AJ Slaughter and they beat Vanderbilt and Mississippi State earlier this year. I don't hear of too many 16-seeds that have been 2 teams like that before.
And I completely agree with you on MSU Jeff. The WISC game they were getting blown out and if Lucas plays against ILL, they probably win. But since it's such a significant player like Lucas and since he plays for such a high-profile team, I feel like it will be hard for the Committee to disregard that. By the way I am in agreement with MSU being a little overrated, I just wanted to get my Big Ten some respect!

Jeff said...

I agree with you on Western Kentucky, honestly. When I was moving them to the 16 line last night I was staring at it, thinking that there had to be something wrong - they'd probably be the best 16 seed ever.

But when I looked at the resumes of the 15 seeds... I just couldn't put WKU ahead of any of them.

But the way I figure it, there will be some upsets in the conference tournaments. In the end, I think WKU gets a 15.

Anonymous said...

Any response to the Old Dominion comment?

Jeff said...

I think that 2009 Utah State is a decent comparison to 2010 Old Dominion, but it seems to me that Utah State's resume was better.

Old Dominion does have that big win over Georgetown, but don't forget that the Utah State win over Utah last season was arguably just as impressive. Utah ended up with a 5 seed in the Tournament, which is where Georgetown might end up this year.

Last year's WAC is comparable to this year's Colonial, and Utah State dominated last year at 14-2, while Old Dominion is currently sitting in third place at 10-3. Utah State went 29-4 with a 3-3 record against the RPI Top 100. Old Dominion is 18-7 with a 7-6 record against the RPI Top 100, although that number is slightly arbitrary. They're 4-6 against the RPI 1-through-88.

Utah State had an easier schedule last season, but they completely ran through it and ended up getting an 11 seed based on sheer numbers.

The Selection Committee has a tendency to be biased a bit by won-loss records, and they also care a lot about winning conferences. For Old Dominion to get an 11 seed they have to prove they'd have gotten an at-large bid. If they don't win the regular season title outright, it's hard to see that happening.

Anonymous said...

And yet Memphis, who won't win the CUSA regular season, who has a much worse RPI, and a win nowhere close to as good as @ Georgetown gets a 12. Interesting.

Jeff said...

I'm giving Memphis a 12 under the assumption that they win the C-USA tournament title, and there's no question that Conference USA is much better than the Colonial this year.

I agree that Old Dominion has the slightly better resume than Memphis right now, but they'd have to basically win out to end up with a better resume than a Memphis team that wins the C-USA tournament.

As I've already said, though, Memphis has at best the third best at-large resume from C-USA. If Memphis doesn't win their conference title, they probably will not get into the Tournament at all.

Anonymous said...

So then you aren't projecting Old Dominion to win the CAA title?

Jeff said...

The teams in capital letters are the projection tournament champions. But winning the Colonial is not nearly as impressive as winning Conference USA.

Anonymous said...

Considering the Spiders are 19-6 currently and will likely end up 23-8, 12-4 in the A-10, have wins over Florida, Temple, URI, Missouri, Mississippi State and ODU, a projected RPI of 32, and play in the 6th ranked conference, why are you leaving them out?

Jeff said...

If they end up 23-8, which is certainly a very plausible final record, then they'll be right on the bubble. It will come down to how they play in the A-10 tournament, and how strong the bubble is.

Richmond was the single last team I left out this bracket. I actually wrote their name in, then deleted it again and put Virginia Tech in. One thing that scared me about Richmond are their computer numbers: neither Sagarin or Pomeroy rates them one of the 50 best teams in the country. And that makes me worry about a potential upset in their next few games. It's a mistake to throw something like a home game against George Washington into the win column before the game is played.

Ultimately, that's what led Richmond to be the first team out of this bracket, even though they would be in the field of 65 if the season ended now.

Anonymous said...

I would Have to say that Radford beats out Coastal Carolina They Play Saturday and Winner will more than likely Win the South. I would then say Radford will once again be another 16 seed that will fall hard just like last years joke against UNC.

Anonymous said...

So you think a team with a projected RPI of 30 with a win @ Georgetown deserves a worse seed than a team with an RPI of 65 with no notable wins. Interesting.

Jeff said...

RPI doesn't matter. I encourage you to read this piece that I wrote last year. Memphis has a better ELO_CHESS than Old Dominion already, and that will only improve if they win the C-USA tournament.

Missouri State fans could have woken up on Selection Sunday 2006 and said "No chance does a team with a Top 25 RPI not get an at-large bid." And they would have been wrong.

Anonymous said...

We're not debating at-large's since you have them both projected as making the tournament.

Missouri St. had an empty RPI that year. No surprise they were left out.

Anonymous said...

*making the tournament as auto-bids I meant to say.

Anonymous said...

And as one of the 8 that had Arizona in last year (you didn't), I don't need lessons on who is going to get at-large's.

Jeff said...

I don't know what makes you feel the need to constantly be an angry jerk. I assume you don't talk this way to ordinary people in your life, so don't talk this way here.

The point is that the Sagarin ELO_CHESS is a much better objective projector of seed than RPI. So you can't make an argument that I'm wrong because the RPI says I is, particularly when Sagarin agrees with me.

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

Old Dominion's Elo-Chess is 49 while Memphis' is 76!

Jeff said...

I was using ELO_CHESS to explain why Old Dominion would not be higher than a 12, and more likely will be a 13. As I said, Old Dominion has the better resume right now than Memphis, but if we assume that Memphis wins the C-USA tournament then they'll leapfrog Old Dominion. Old Dominion doesn't get to play UTEP, Tulsa and UAB in their conference tournament.

That's why I give Memphis the narrow edge.

Anonymous said...

Yet Memphis' is much worse yet they would get the higher seed? And last I checked, Northeastern, VCU, and William & Mary aren't some scrub teams.

Anonymous said...

Vandy as a seven is pretty comical as well. Top 12 projected RPI, #20 Elo that you're in love with, 7-2 in conference, beat Mizzou, swept Tennessee. What a joke!

Anonymous said...

I agree with the previous poster that Vandy as a 7 is pretty much a joke. How many games do you project them to lose from here that would move them down to a 7 seed?

Anonymous said...

I'm guessing he has them at 21-9 (10-6) for them to be a 7. Pretty difficult to see that happening.

Then again, he did have UNC as a 5 last week.

Anonymous said...

Hi Jeff,

I was wondering if you had a link to last year's college basketball rankings (ones like elo_chess) from the end of the regular season instead of from the end of the tournament.

Thanks

Jeff said...

I don't have those at hand, but you can use this post that I did at the time which has the ten best ELO_CHESS ratings left out, and the ten worse that got in, along with the seeds they received from the Selection Committee.

As you will see, all but one team with an ELO_CHESS in the Top 40 got in, and the one exception won the NIT. Of the teams between 41st and 50th, half of them got in and half were left out. And zero teams outside the ELO_CHESS Top 50 got in.

Anonymous said...

20 bucks says he still has UConn in on Monday.