Saturday, March 27, 2010

Elite 8 Discussion + Picking The Lines

I'm setting up one post for all discussions of the Elite 8 games. I don't plan on posting anything else tonight, so this post should still be at the top of the page when the games start up on Sunday.

I already picked the lines for today's games in this post. Both West Virginia and Butler opened up at four point underdogs, and I picked both of them. West Virginia is the easier one for me, because I simply think they're better than Kentucky. Their beat down of Washington in their first game after losing their starting point guard was really impressive, and they've been winning close games over elite teams all season long, while Kentucky has been softened up by a weaker conference and a weaker path to the Elite 8. A big misconception is that Kentucky is good at forcing turnovers (they were actually only 8th best in the SEC), and West Virginia should be even better at taking care of the ball in their second game without Truck Bryant. There was a clear difference just from the first half to the second half of their win over Washington. And finally, despite John Wall being the better overall player and the better NBA prospect, if today's game comes down to the wire I'd rather have Da'Sean Butler take that last shot than Wall. Butler has been the best clutch player in the nation this year.

And as for the Butler/Kansas State game, I do think that the talent levels are fairly even. Jacob Pullen has been hit or miss all season long, mixing in 6-for-12 nights behind the arc with 1-for-7 nights, and at no time this year did he have three of those hot nights in a row. They'll need a third in a row to survive Butler. Kansas State's best team strength is offensive rebounding, but Butler is a very good defensive rebounding team that managed to basically fight to a draw against Syracuse, so they should be able to hold off Kansas State. And K-State's biggest weakness is putting opponents on the line, while Butler is good at getting there, and they shoot at a 74% clip once they get there. And all of the downsides to Kansas State that caused me to pick against them earlier still exist: they're poor at shooting free throws, and they turn over the ball a lot. They've managed to avoid those problems the last two games, but the stats don't lie. The two advantages for Kansas State will be offensive backcourt play and inside offense. If they can pound the ball inside they might be able to score at will. And if Jacob Pullen does put together a third straight superstar night then Butler doesn't have anybody who can guard him. But it's no sure thing. This game is a toss-up for me, so I'm taking the points.

Now, here are my thoughts on Sunday's games:

Day 6 picks against the spread: 3-1-0
Overall ATS through Sweet 16 games: 31-22-3

Michigan State (-2) over Tennessee: Tennessee will be a bigger test for Korie Lucious, who was not good handling the ball without Kalin Lucas back during Big Ten play. Tennessee is much better at forcing turnovers than Northern Iowa is. If Michigan State can avoid a lot of turnovers they will have the very clear advantage inside. They're one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and Tennessee is actually rather poor. Brian Williams is the only big they have who will be able to bang with the Michigan State post players, and he has a bad habit of fouling himself out against elite big men. Wayne Chism has the size to play down low, but it's not to Tennessee's advantage to have him banging bodies with Delvon Roe and Draymond Green. He's much more valuable in the open floor. The other thing to consider is that Tennessee is actually pretty poor offensively, and they struggle to score against just about any team when they're not getting easy layups off of turnovers. So in the end this game will come down to turnovers. Can Tennessee force enough turnovers to open this game up, and allow them enough easy baskets that they don't get bogged down in long stretches without made field goals? Korie Lucious is playing with so much more confidence this Tournament than I saw all year long when he seemed to be trying too hard (a sure sign of insecurity), and I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. I think Michigan State will keep the turnover numbers close enough to win the game.

Duke (-4) over Baylor: You have to put that Baylor-Saint Mary's game out of your mind when picking this game. They looked great and absolutely dominated that game, but you always want to be cautious about assuming that a team will play the same way twice in a row. Baylor has actually had an easy route to the Elite 8, as Duke will be the first single-digit they'll have played in this entire Tournament. Baylor has one of the nation's best defensive players in the paint in Ekpe Udoh, but Duke has multiple quality options in the paint. Duke absolutely dominated the paint in the second half against JaJuan Johnson and Purdue. The advantage for Baylor will be on the perimeter, because LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter have carried that team all season long. Both are outstanding three-point shooters, but Duke is the #1 rated three-point defense in the nation, and they've always got good perimeter defense. But the advantage for Baylor will be the lack of backcourt depth that Duke has, and if Dunn and Carter can speed up this game and wear out Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith then they could start torching the Duke defenders off the dribble. Duke has good big men, but nobody like Ekpe Udoh who is capable of erasing the mistakes of perimeter defenders. This will be a very even game, with both teams capable of balancing out the strengths of the other. In the end I'm going to lean on two things: experience and execution. Coach K has been here before and won here before, and his team executes so incredibly well at the end of games. There is no team in the nation that operates in the final two minutes of games better than Duke, and I'd trust them more than Baylor in a close finish. What I'd be more worried about than picking Duke straight up is actually that point spread, which is probably a little bit high, as Duke's point lines tend to be. I could easily see Duke winning this game by less than four. So if I were you, I'd feel more confident taking the money line on Duke than the spread.

28 comments:

Jeff said...

Didn't take too long for Matt Howard to get in foul trouble again...

But I think Butler is better against a team like Kansas State without him. Kansas State has good inside players, but none of them are tremendous scorers. Their scoring comes on the perimeter.

And I think Howard just isn't athletic enough to play against big men from elite teams. He's just too slow and awkward, and just never looks comfortable with the ball. He can handle himself well in the Horizon League, but in the NCAA Tournament's Elite 8 I think Butler is better off with him in foul trouble.

Jeff said...

A worrying sign, though, is the offensive rebounds. Kansas State is on pace right now for about 20 offensive rebounds. That's the one thing they could use Matt Howard to prevent. They'll have to shut those down.

Justin said...

I'd like Butler to win this game......if they lose, this will hurt having that they had a 10 pt. lead halfway thru the 2nd half.

Jeff said...

It seems like Kansas State just ran out of steam. Only one day off after a double-OT game is tough, particularly when you can't even truly take the day off because you've got to prepare for a brand new opponent that you've never seen before.

I think if we gave those teams another week to prepare that Kansas State would have the slight edge. But a big reason I picked Butler here was because of the quick layover after that double-OT game.

zach said...

looks like we might have another game where the better team loses because of shooting. getting tired of those.

Anonymous said...

west virginia was the better team, point blank...period. sure they were hot from outside, but the story is the defense West Virginia played. Bill Self broke it down at halftime...the 1-3-1 zone took away what kentucky is good at. also they turned kentucky over, and the more experienced team beat a kentucky team loaded with raw talent, but it doesn't necessarily mean they were better. better talent doesn't equal better team play...i'll take WVU any day. by the way, what a game from Joe Mazzulla, the kid is a beast, representing my home state of RI! give the kid credit...and the whole team, many people said he and they would be turnover machines and Kentucky would get out in transition and run over them...didn't happen...

zach said...

So yes, WVU did come up with a solid defense to stop the drives and Demarcus in the post. But WVU shot as good as they did all year AND UK missed their first twenty threes. If either of those regress to the mean, it's at least a coin flip.

I was real impressed with Mizzoula though. Hope he can continue this level of play against Duke's smarter guards.

Anonymous said...

don't forget Mazzulla was the catalyst for the WVU team that upset Duke a couple years ago too...he'll be ready if they face Duke next weekend...there is something to be said for experience vs. talent, it showed in Calipari's Memphis team, and this Kentucky team as well...WVU is a true "team" whereas I see Calipari teams more of a collection of outrageously talented players individually, but missing the "team" factor...

zach said...

Yeah, I am with you on that last point. As much as I do feel like UK would win a series with WVU, I don't really feel the same way with Duke or Kansas (which is irrevelant, obviously). I was really just hoping the team would play well enough against WVU and then steal one from Duke or Baylor. But anyway, I'm actually kinda annoyed that this is Kentucky now. I know a lot of people didn't, but I liked getting to know Joe Crawford and Gerald Fitch and Keith Bogans. Once Gillespie mucked it up, I guess we had to go with a difference maker, but I'm not sure what was wrong with Tubby Smith. Now we're going to get a sequence of raw one and done poorly coached teams. Yay. This year, Wall and Cousins. Next year, Enes Kanter and maybe that Knight kid. On and on forever. Sigh. Sorry if that got a little rantish.

zach said...

I should clarify that by getting to know I mean watching the player as a fan. I feel like in real life, that meaning would be clear, but I never know on the internet

Jeff said...

It's okay. The thing is, you can't win a championship relying on one-and-done players. As much hype as players like Kevin Durant and OJ Mayo and Michael Beasley got... how much success did they have? Carmelo Anthony is often used as an example of a player who "led his team to a championship", but that team had a lot of experienced talent alongside him. Same for Greg Oden, who wasn't even the most valuable player on his own team. Kentucky was never a team that had a great chance of winning the title this year, despite probably being the best group of freshmen any team has ever had. You've got to have experience and depth.

This game tonight was the perfect example of that. West Virginia played excellent defense, but Kentucky was also just cold. I don't care how good your defense is: when your opponent misses their first 20 or so shots behind the arc, that's partially luck that they're just having a bad night. Kentucky had to identify that and stop chucking that stuff up. They launched an insane 32 three pointers during the West Virginia game, hitting only 4. That's unacceptable.

West Virginia also had a hot shooting night: both Da'Sean Butler and Kevin Jones shot better behind the arc than I can recall seeing from them.

I picked West Virginia to win, so I'm supposed to crow about how smart I was, but I actually think I was lucky. Kentucky looked better than West Virginia - they just couldn't shoot, and West Virginia got hot. And that's a bad combination.

zach said...

On that front, do you think there's any chance Calipari starts recruiting some more Shawn Taggert or Antonio Anderson types? Basically, do you think he just utilized those players as stepping stones or does he understand the value of four year players? 'Cause from what I've seen of next year's pursuits, it seems like the former.

Jeff said...

I think Calipari will. I mean, I can understand wanting to come in with a splash. But you could even see with the way that Calipari was treating this team different from his Memphis and UMass teams that he was really wishing he had more experience to lean on.

Cal will still be getting the big time one-and-done players, but he'll be mixing them in with four year players. He knows you can't win a national title without them.

And you know that Calipari really wants to make sure that the next time he goes to a Final Four that he'll at least get to cut the nets down before the NCAA strips the wins away (sorry Kentucky fans).

zach said...

Yeah, I suppose that was a dumbish question by me. There's only so many one and dones he could pursue and still fill out the roster even if he wanted to.

I should have put this with the last part, but I forgot: I know you're not an NBA guy, but do you have any insight into whether potential first round money plus the lockout, plus the players eventually losing the lockout might pull in Orton. I wouldn't think, but he said some strange things and lots of guys make bad decisions. Not that long ago I was hoping to keep Bledsoe, 0 for 4 would be a severe disappointment.

Jeff said...

My understanding is that if there's a lockout it would be in the 2011-12 season, right? So are you wondering if Orton sticks around for a second year if he'll end up staying a third because he'll fear a lockout?

I know that a lot of fans around the nation are hoping for that potential lockout to keep their players around, but I'm skeptical. I'm in the minority in thinking the NBA lockout won't happen, or that if it does it will just be a couple of weeks. The players have absolutely no leverage, so the owners can threaten a lockout and they'll have to give in. So I don't think the draft status of players will be affected much.

zach said...

I was trying to say that maybe he would want to leave this year, so he certainly got paid before the potential lockout. Now that I've slept, I'm not worried about it, there's just no way he's gets drafted early enough.

Thanks for answering my questions. We're living in a crazy world where an analyst of your caliber has time to respond individually to his readers and analysts like SImmons are able to convince the world Samhan is a legit NBA player.

Anonymous said...

Jeff, good calls on Butler and WVU, you were right that K-State's hot shooting streak had to end and it was more likely to happen after the mental and physical exertion of that Xavier game. I get the feeling that KSU really lost though because Martin did not call timeout during that last minute and settle the players down and set up a play. Was he just dumb because he was fatigued like his players? Two timeouts left in a loss is inexplicable to me. As long as Martin learns from his mistakes this year, could KSU be even better next year in spite of losing Clemente? I guess I have to pull for Butler to pull off the upset and win it all now!

Jason

Anonymous said...

Jeff, good calls on Butler and WVU, you were right that K-State's hot shooting streak had to end and it was more likely to happen after the mental and physical exertion of that Xavier game. I get the feeling that KSU really lost though because Martin did not call timeout during that last minute and settle the players down and set up a play. Was he just dumb because he was fatigued like his players? Two timeouts left in a loss is inexplicable to me. As long as Martin learns from his mistakes this year, could KSU be even better next year in spite of losing Clemente? I guess I have to pull for Butler to pull off the upset and win it all now!

Jason

Jeff said...

Thanks for the kind words. The thing is that Simmons is a much better writer than I am. I wouldn't ever expect as many people to want to read me as would want to read him. But the important thing to remember is just that he's a writer - not an analyst. And I always enjoy the fact that he's good friends with Malcolm Gladwell, because they're both the same type of writer to me. They explain things well, they're entertaining to read and you feel like they're teaching you... until they write about something that you know a lot about and you realize that they don't really know what they're talking about.

The flaw Simmons has with college basketball is what Chad Ford pointed out: that he started watching college basketball in March, and so he overrates very small sample sizes. He's right that March Madness games should count more than an average game, but so do regular season games over rivals, or against other top ranked teams. To suddenly pretend that Jacob Pullen or Omar Samhan should be a Top 20 pick because of two good games is insanity. Both are excellent college players, but if anybody picks them in the Top 50 of the NBA Draft they'd be nuts.

As for Orton, I have been beginning to look into what people are saying about early entries for the NBA Draft, because this coming week I'm going to start previewing teams that might actually lose players early to the draft. The consensus on Orton seems to be that he's a marginal second round pick if he goes now, but he'll have a good shot of being a lottery pick in 2011. So I imagine he'll stay one more year.

Jeff said...

Some hot shooting from Tennessee early on, but that will tail off as the game goes along. Tennessee isn't turning Michigan State over, and the Spartans are dominating the boards the way we'd expect them to.

When Tennessee cools off, Michigan State should open up a lead.

Jeff said...

Well that's why I don't gamble for a living... who would have figured Michigan State would win the game and not cover the spread? I didn't even consider that possibility: with a spread that small you're just trying to pick the winner straight up.

Justin said...

Jeff, this is totally off todays comments but it's something I was thinkin bout earlier today. You had said on a post a couple of weeks ago about UCLA back in the 60's about their 88 game win streak under John Wooden. You said something along the lines that the Pac 10 or the teams along the west coast were weak and that alot of people fail to point that out. Thought that was very intriguing point and was wanting to see if you would elaborate on that analysis. Again, completely off the subject of today's games but I'm curious and not even a fan of UCLA b-ball.

Jeff said...

Sure. It has to do with the fact that back in the day the concept of an "East" and "West" region meant something. Every team that played in the West region was actually from the West part of the country. Since most of the best teams in the country were on the east coast, that meant that UCLA didn't have to play any elite teams until the Final Four.

Take the 1970 NCAA Tournament for example. Here was the West region: UCLA, Long Beach State, Santa Clara, Utah State, UTEP, Weber State. The Mideast region that year included Kentucky, Iowa and Notre Dame.

Or take 1968: the West region was UCLA, Weber State, Santa Clara, New Mexico and New Mexico State. Among the teams that weren't in the West region you had: North Carolina, St. John's, Kentucky, Ohio State, Florida State, Marquette, Houston, Louisville, Kansas State and Boston College.

So UCLA typically only had to win two NCAA Tournament games to reach the Final Four, and those games were against teams like Long Beach State and Weber State. They didn't have to play the teams like Kentucky, North Carolina or Kansas until the Final Four.


This isn't to say that UCLA wasn't the best team in the country every year - they were. But nowadays even if some program put together the best team in the country 11 straight years they still wouldn't win the title 11 straight years because even the best team in the country typically loses when they have to play five straight very good opponents (as Kansas found out this season). The probability of the best team winning the title is just much, much higher when they only have to play two elite teams.

Anonymous said...

found your blog enjoyed reading all your comments
what your predictions for the final four

Jeff said...

I don't want to make my Final Four picks right now. I need to put some thought into it. Although if I had to guess now I'd take Duke & Michigan State. But don't hold me to that: I might change my mind when I look at the numbers more in depth.

Anonymous said...

Tak:

What do you think the chances are that WVU beats Duke?

I think Duke is the better team after watching both play, but I have WVU making the finals.

And in general, what do you think the chances are that Michigan State/Butler can beat WVU/Duke? (Well, WVU mainly, because that's who I need to make the finals).

Overall, really enjoyed your blog. I hope you do this every year, because I'll be tuning back in next year.

Jeff said...

Either Duke or WVU will be the favorite over either MSU or Butler. As for WVU and Duke, I'm not sure I agree that West Virginia is the better team. The phrase I'd use is "more talented", because they are physically more talented. But Duke is the better executing team, and they also have clearly superior perimeter players, and we all know how important perimeter players are in the NCAA Tournament.

But Duke/WVU is certainly a very close game. And like I said before, I don't want to be held to picking either team right now. I'm going to do some 2010-11 previews early in this coming week, but by the end of the week I'll have put some real thought into all of the numbers and I'll let you all know who I think will win.

Steve from Dallas said...

After hours of watching analysts preview the tournament, along with searching for picks on the web (free, of course), I stumbled onto your blog. Last year, I paid $15 (ESPN insider) for a stat program to pick my games after many years of going on intuition (mainly because I don't pay attention too much during the season). I finished in second to last.

The morning that the tourney started, I stumbled onto your site. I really liked your presentation of the matchups and figured why the hell not.

My extended family (and some of their friends) have participated in a bracket for years. I joined them about 5 years ago and haven't been able to place higher than 8th out of about 16-20 participants each year.

I am one Duke win away from winning the bracket after being one of many possible losses away from being eliminated. The Duke/West Virginia picks, along with Butler taking out K State, put me in this position.

Even if Duke loses (which I dont think will happen...my miracle bracket will come to frutition!) I am very happy with your predictions and will tell others about it (well, those I don't play in a bracket with).

Thanks again!