Post-Draft BP68

As in past years, I'm due to post my updated projected bracket now that the NBA Draft is over. I'm slightly confused this year because we are going to a 68 team bracket, and nobody has yet decided how we're going to arrange those 68 teams. For now I'm going to assume that we have four teams seeded 1-through-17. If you just want to see the bracket then please scroll down lower in the post.

But for those who care about my two cents on this, I do think that the way the NCAA chooses to arrange the teams will tell us a lot about the future. If you just want to put together a 68 team bracket, the logical choice is to have the bottom 8 teams play each other in a preliminary round. Having the last eight at-large teams play each other is really not fair for a number of reasons:

It wouldn't be obvious how you'd decide how to do it. Let's say you have six at-large teams that get a 12 or 13 seed, do you then just pick the two worst 11 seeds to play in this preliminary round? Do we punish a 12 seed that happens to be an at-large team by making them play in the preliminary round, despite having an even resume to an automatic bid 12 seed, simply because they got in as an at-large? And how ugly would the bracket look with random preliminary games depending on where the at-large teams are (for example, if only a single 13 seed is an at-large team, then only one 13 seed would have a play-in game). And what would you seed those teams? Would we have a 13 seed play a play-in game against a 12 seed? Then a 13 against an 11? Considering how much the NCAA depends on bracket contests for basketball revenue, you'd think they wouldn't want something so confusing. Second, it's not fair, not only that some 12 seeds have to play an extra game while others don't, but also that some 4 and 5 seeds will have to play a team coming off a big win while others won't.

The arguments against having the last eight teams play a preliminary round don't make sense anyway. The first is that it would stigmatize the bottom eight teams, which is nonsense. They don't feel bad for getting a 16 seed and being first round fodder now? Maybe they'll actually get to win a game now that people will be watching, since casual fans basically ignore 16 seeds and the play-in game right now. The second argument is even dumber, which is that since we always argue about the last few teams in the Tournament, now they'll be able to take it out on the court. Um, no. We're just going to now argue about who the 68th best team is, instead of the 64th or 65th best team. There was no dictum from God that says we need the best 64 teams in the NCAA Tournament. College football fans tell us that they just want the top four teams to get a chance in a playoff, and the top four teams certainly get a chance in basketball. There's nothing special about being the 64th best team versus being the 32nd best team, or any of the other sizes the Tournament used to be. No matter where we draw the line, the first team out of the bracket is going to have angry fans and is going to get talked about on television.

Of course, most of us realize that the NCAA eventually wants to grow the Tournament to 96 teams, and if that's the case then it makes sense for them to get the final at-large teams to play each other. They will want to get Americans used to watching seven rounds of basketball so that it won't seem like a big deal when a lot of teams are playing a seventh game. So I think that the NCAA will try to get at-large teams to play in that preliminary round, although it remains to be seen if they'll be able to come up with a good enough system to make it realistic.

For now, I'm going to just seed teams 1-through-17, and I'm switching the name from the BP65 to the BP68. And we'll see what happens.

As usual, the next bracket will be out within a week of Midnight Madness, which will be in mid-October. And of course, there will be plenty of other posting between now and then. Without further ado:

1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Purdue
2. North Carolina
2. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)

3. Kansas State
3. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas
3. Ohio State

4. Baylor
4. BYU (MWC)
4. Kentucky
4. Syracuse

5. Florida
5. BUTLER (HORIZON)
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
5. Virginia Tech

6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Illinois
6. Texas A&M
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

7. New Mexico
7. Wisconsin
7. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
7. Temple

8. Villanova
8. West Virginia
8. UNLV
8. Arizona State

9. UTAH STATE (WAC)
9. Louisville
9. Oklahoma State
9. San Diego State

10. Northwestern
10. UTEP
10. Vanderbilt
10. Clemson

11. Missouri
11. Boston College
11. Marquette
11. California

12. Saint Louis
12. Florida State
12. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
12. Miami (Fl)

13. UConn
13. Mississippi
13. Maryland
13. IONA (MAAC)

14. OHIO (MAC)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)

15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (AMERICA EAST)

17. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
17. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
17. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
17. MOUNT ST. MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Dayton, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Minnesota, VCU, Creighton, South Carolina, Saint Mary's, New Mexico State

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Duquesne, Richmond, Saint John's, Indiana, George Mason, UAB, Fairfield, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Arizona, UCLA, USC, Arkansas, Mississippi State

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Charlotte, Rhode Island, Cincinnati, South Florida, Michigan, Penn State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, UC Santa Barbara, Drexel, Northeastern, Central Florida, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Wright State, Princeton, St. Peter's, Siena, Akron, Kent State, Bradley, Southern Illinois, Utah, Oregon, Stanford, Washington State, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Portland, Fresno State, Nevada