Clemson Upsets FSU, MSU Takes Down Florida

Clemson 62, Florida State 44
Florida State's offense hasn't been good all season, and they really have no offensive weapons other than Chris Singleton. So when he only scores 8 points you know it's going to be a long day offensively. But really, this was just a terribly sloppy game. These two teams combined for 23 steals and 20 assists - I can't recall the last game I saw with more steals than assists. Florida State will be disappointed to lose this game, but they were due to lose eventually. They came in here having won four straight, pushing themselves into the AP Top 25. Even with this loss they are 5-2 in the ACC, which puts them in third place. FSU is now 6-5 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Duke and Boston College along with a bad loss to Auburn. Their RPI is 49th, which is close to where their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be. If the season ended now they'd be in the Tournament narrowly because of that Duke win, but I think they've got to get to 10-6 in ACC play to stay in the Tournament. If they finish 9-7 they'll enter the ACC tournament with work still left to do. This win pushes Clemson to 4-3 in ACC play, although this is their first win all season against the RPI Top 60. Their RPI is 66th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be close to 55th. To make the Tournament they probably need to get to 10-6 in ACC play while taking down a big scalp (other than a road game at Duke their best chance is February 12th at home against North Carolina).

Mississippi State 71, #23 Florida 64
Mississippi State fans are finally beginning to see what they had expected to see all year long. Dee Bost is back playing as well as he did last season, and Renardo Sidney is finally finding his game. The two combined for 40 points on 13-for-24 shooting in this game. The problem is that they pretty much already blew any chance of a successful season, with losses early on to Hawaii, East Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic. They are 5-9 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that should still be outside the Top 150 when the new numbers come out tomorrow. Currently 3-3 in SEC play they would have to finish at least 11-5 to have even a remote chance at at-large consideration. Instead, Mississippi State will likely be doing more of this, which is weakening the Tournament resume of another SEC team.

For Florida, a slower pace in this game kept the turnovers down, but they got another poor game from Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, who combined for 8-for-28 shooting, 4 assists and 4 turnovers. Florida has more success when they slow things down and work the ball through their frontcourt. Too often they are impatient offensively. Even with this loss Florida remains in first place in the SEC East, and they now have a huge week coming up with home games against Vanderbilt (on Tuesday) and Kentucky (Saturday). They still have to head on the road to both Vanderbilt and Kentucky later in the season, but a win in both of those games next week will put them in firm control of the SEC East. If they can somehow win the conference regular season title it will mean a fairly easy trip to the SEC tournament championship, and a real shot at a 3 or 4 seed. It is more likely, however, that they're going to finish in the 5-9 seed range.

#12 Purdue 73, #18 Minnesota 61
Minnesota kept this game closer than I thought they would, actually leading for parts of the first half before Purdue pulled away midway through the second half. Minnesota again went with their one guard lineup, and they did have relatively good ball movement and offense, but more impressively they played well defensively against Purdue's backcourt. E'Twaun Moore had an off day (3-for-13 shooting), and so it was Lewis Jackson and Ryne Smith that had to lead the way offensively in the second half. It will be interesting to see whether this had more to do with just a poor offensive day from Purdue, or whether Minnesota is able to play team defense well enough to use their length against quicker opponents. They will have an interesting test next when they head to Indiana on Tuesday night. The Hoosiers have quick guards that are smaller than the long backcourt that Purdue has. If Minnesota can handle them defensively then it will bode well for home games up next against Ohio State and Illinois.

The Gophers are 5-4 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Purdue, North Carolina and West Virginia, and only one loss to a team outside the RPI Top 50 (Virginia). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will stay close to 20th after this loss, so they do have a big buffer between them and the bubble. And with Illinois and Michigan State struggling, Minnesota could still realistically finish as high as fourth in the Big Ten. For Purdue this game represents a quality win, and a solid way to bounce back after being blown away in Columbus. At 7-2 in the Big Ten they are in second place, and have a chance to grab control of that position on Tuesday night at Wisconsin. If they can win that game they can also stay within two games of Ohio State. With a home game against the Buckeyes on February 20th, Purdue still has a real chance of grabbing a share of the Big Ten title.