Saturday, January 15, 2011

Duquesne Knocks Off Temple

Duquesne 78, #23 Temple 66
The Atlantic Ten continues to eat its own. Temple has played so well this year because they never beat themselves. And honestly, they didn't really beat themselves here. They did commit 15 turnovers, which is high for them, but they forced 18 and won the offensive rebounding battle by 7. The refs took over the game and called 58 fouls, with the teams combining for 78 attempted free throws, but that was even between the teams, with Temple hitting 70% and Duquesne hitting 73%. The difference was simply shooting, with Duquesne hitting 47% of their shots and Temple hitting only 31%. Sometimes your shots just don't fall, and that burned Temple here on the road against a fairly good Duquesne team. I didn't see this game, so I don't know if all of the fouls simply took Temple out of their game offensively. Even with this loss Temple finds themselves in a pretty good position with a 12-4 record and zero bad losses (although Duquesne could end up outside the RPI Top 100, making this a bad loss), and wins over Georgetown, Maryland, Seton Hall and Georgia. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should still be in the Top 30 when the new numbers come out tomorrow. As for Duquesne, this is their first big win and they have a bad loss to Robert Morris as well as some mediocre losses to George Mason and Penn State. Their RPI is only 121st, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will move into the Top 100 tomorrow morning, and their PREDICTOR and Pomeroy rating will actually both be in the Top 50. So Duquesne needs more than just one big win, but they're not a bad team and could do more damage in conference play. Not to mention that this win over Temple will give them confidence for the A-10 tournament, where they can possibly earn an automatic bid.

Tennessee 67, Vanderbilt 64
Vanderbilt led this game by 17 points early on, but Tennessee fought back to collect their first win without Bruce Pearl on the bench. Honestly, Tennessee should have won this game by more. They had 10 fewer turnovers and 8 more offensive rebounds, meaning 18 extra possessions. The Vols were just ice cold from the field for the entire first half, and simply managed to shoot well enough in the second half to slowly claw back. They also deserve credit for bottling up Jeffery Taylor (14 points on 5-for-14 shooting). Tennessee fans can express a sigh of relief after this game, because it really was a must-win for them. A loss would have dropped them to 0-3 in the SEC with home losses to Vanderbilt and Florida, meaning an uphill battle just to get back to the middle of the pack in the SEC East. This win should push their Sagarin ELO_CHESS inside the Top 60, but they need at least one more big win and at least a 9-7 SEC record just to have a good shot at making the Tournament. As for Vandy, as well as they've played they are still only 12-4, and now 1-2 in the SEC. Their best wins are over North Carolina and Marquette, and they have a loss to South Carolina that could potentially turn out to be an RPI 100+ loss. They are still safely in the NCAA Tournament for now, but need to get to 9-7 in the SEC to stay there. They next play Ole Miss at home on Wednesday, and then on Saturday have a chance for a really nice non-conference win against Saint Mary's.

Memphis 77, Marshall 61
This was a nice win for Memphis when you consider how poorly they've played lately, and how short-handed they are now that Wesley Witherspoon has been suspended indefinitely for disciplinary reasons. They only had 11 dressed players on the bench. The surprising star for Memphis was Charles Carmouche, who had been averaging only 7 points per game coming in but had 16 efficient points here, including 7-for-8 at the line. If Memphis had followed up the announcement of the Witherspoon suspension by losing here, coming off a loss to SMU, this season really could have headed into a death spiral. Believe it or not, this is actually only the second RPI Top 100 win for Memphis all season (the other was over the University of Miami). They still have a game ahead against Gonzaga, but their only remaining chances for a nice win in conference wil be against UCF. This win will push the Memphis Sagarin ELO_CHESS up to around 75-80th. They'll likely need to beat Gonzaga while also finishing 11-5 or better in Conference USA play (they're currently 2-1) to have a real shot on Selection Sunday. Marshall actually entered this game rated by Pomeroy and Sagarin as the better team, although that might switch after this romp. But they lack any big wins and have bad losses to Chattanooga and James Madison. They get a non-conference game against West Virginia on Wednesday night, a game they'll need to win to have any realistic shot at getting onto the bubble.

No comments: