Monday, January 03, 2011

Illinois Holds Serve Against Wisconsin

#25 Illinois 69, #24 Wisconsin 61
I think that Illinois and Wisconsin have the two best homecourt advantages in the Big Ten, and after this game they will play against at the Kohl Center on January 15th. Illinois held serve in this one, despite only three turnovers by Wisconsin. The Badgers also won the boards (11 offensive rebounds vs 5 for Illinois). The reason Illinois won was because Wisconsin couldn't get the ball inside, and settled for three-pointers on 58% of their field goal attempts. They have had a high 3PA/FGA ratio all season (41.2% at the moment), and that will be a key for their future success because of how skilled their big men are on offense. Demetri McCamey had success getting to the hole for Illinois, earning 15 free throws (3 more than all Wisconsin players combined). Now 1-1 in Big Ten play, Wisconsin will play Michigan on Wednesday night before heading to Michigan State on January 11th. After that they have their chance to hold serve at home against Illinois. The Illini move to 2-0 in the Big Ten, but like Wisconsin their success or failure this season will be determined by road play. They head to Wisconsin on January 15th, but otherwise their tough road games (Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue and Minnesota) will all come in February and March.

Boston College 85, South Carolina 70
This game was never particularly close. BC opened up a 17 point lead late in the first half and had it up to 29 in the second half before pulling key players down the stretch. As usual, it wasn't fancy - they just got themselves open shots and hit them (63% on twos, 41% on threes). Boston College still has to navigate Harvard on January 5th (a program that has given them problems in the recent past), but a win there will give them an 11-3 non-conference record with wins over Texas A&M, Maryland, California and Providence, and only that one bad loss to Yale. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 31st, so they're definitely in the Field of 68 for the time being. South Carolina isn't a terrible team, but they're off to a tough start and they are in the wrong division in the SEC. In the SEC West they'd be contending for first place, but right now they're the worst team in the SEC East. Assuming that they beat South Carolina State tomorrow they'll head into SEC play 9-4 with their best win against Clemson, and a loss to Furman. They open SEC play on Saturday against Vanderbilt. If South Carolina is somehow going to get onto the bubble, they're going to need to beat the good SEC East teams at home, and Vandy would be a good start.

Missouri State 82, Illinois State 71
So much for the golden era of Missouri Valley defenses... Illinois State hit 55% from the field, and Missouri State hit 53% just on threes. Missouri State's offense is really humming right now - their effective field goal percentage is 54% and they're 18th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. And they've firmly established themselves as a legitimate contender to Wichita State - in fact, they might be the favorite. Sagarin rates Wichita State 54th and Missouri State 57th. Pomeroy rates Wichita State 46th and Missouri State 53rd. Both teams are off to 2-0 starts in conference play. They will play at Wichita State on Saturday afternoon, and then will play the return game at Missouri State in the regular season finale on February 26th. Missouri State's next game is a tough one, though, tomorrow night at Creighton. Illinois State falls to 8-5, and 0-2 in conference play. They're nowhere near top of the Missouri Valley right now.

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