Is Texas A&M The Second Best Team In The Big 12?

#13 Texas A&M 91, #11 Missouri 89, OT
Missouri jumped out to a 19-7 lead early in this one, but Texas A&M quickly evened things back up, and this was a tight game all the way down the stretch and into overtime. The star for Texas A&M, as it has often been this season, was Khris Middleton, who had 28 points, including 11 in overtime. The key for Texas A&M in this game was beating the Missouri press, which all season has been a formula for a lot of offense. Missouri's half court defense hasn't been strong all season, so most teams can put up a lot of points on them if they aren't committing 20+ turnovers (to be fair, Missouri often gets those 20+ turnovers). Texas A&M is quietly 16-1 with wins over Washington, Temple, Oklahoma State and Missouri, and only a loss to Boston College. Depending on what happens tomorrow they could move into the Top Ten when the new polls come out on Monday. Kansas is clearly the favorite in the Big 12, but with Baylor and Kansas State struggling and with this win over Mizzou, does this move Texas A&M into position as the second best team in the Big 12? I'm going to answer that question in the negative. I still think Texas is a step ahead, and honestly this win is overrated. Sabermetricians know that if you win a game at home over a team in overtime, it more likely than not means that you're the inferior team. Homecourt advantage is worth about 4 points, so if you are equal to your opponent you should beat them by four at home. Texas A&M has been playing better than Missouri of late, so I actually think they are the third best Big 12 team so far, but I'm just pointing out that casual fans tend to overrate close victories. This tough loss for Missouri drops them to 1-2 in Big 12 play, but I don't think there's any reason to panic. I expect them to win their next two games (at home against Kansas State and Iowa State) and I don't see them falling back to the bubble. They were overrated at 11th in the country, but they're still a very good team.

#7 Villanova 74, Maryland 66
This was a brutal loss for Maryland. They were up 57-45 with a little over 10 minutes to go but allowed Villanova to go a 19-0 run to blow this game open in the wrong direction. Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns keyed the comeback, overcoming a very poor day from Corey Stokes (4-for-14 shooting from the field). Jordan Williams was not at fault here for the Terps, dominating inside with 25 points and 14 rebounds, and fouling out Mouphtaou Yarou. But he got almost no help from the rest of his team. I continue to be baffled by how invisible Pe'Shon Howard has been after looking so good in the Coaches vs Cancer tournament back in November. This is yet another close missed chance for Maryland, a team that came in rated in the Top 25 by both Sagarin and Pomeroy but without a single big win (no bad losses either), and they now fall to 11-6 overall. Their last remaining chance for a really big win will be February 2nd against Duke, although they should have a good shot there when you consider how well they played Duke at Cameron Indoor last weekend. They are 1-2 in ACC play, but should improve with home games against Virginia Tech and Clemson upcoming. As for Villanova, this game might not have meant much to their fans considering that they were coming off conference wins over Cincinnati and Louisville, but it's a quality win and it will help their resume. Even if they don't win the Big East they will be in play for a 2 or 3 seed in the Tournament, and this win will help that cause, particularly if Maryland works their way into the Top 25 at some point. The Wildcats now go on the road to play UConn and Syracuse. Considering that UConn remains very overrated and Syracuse might be without Kris Joseph, both of those wins are realistic for Nova.

#24 Michigan State 71, Northwestern 67, OT
Another missed opportunity for Northwestern to finally collect a big win, and another extremely narrow win for the Spartans at the Breslin Center. Keith Appling was the offensive star for Michigan State with a team-high 19 points, including 5-for-8 shooting behind the arc, but the best player for Michigan State was Delvon Roe. Roe only scored 5 points, but he held Northwestern star John Shurna to 6 points. Shurna is still not 100% healthy, but with Roe coming off of a great defensive performance against Wisconsin's Jon Leuer, he's beginning to get a national reputation as an excellent post defender. Michigan State is now in a tie for second place in the Big Ten with a 4-1 record, but it hasn't been pretty, and things get more difficult now that they'll have to head on the road to Illinois and Purdue. And Northwestern, they fall now to 2-4 in the Big Ten, but those two wins are over Indiana and Iowa and they are an atrocious 0-5 against the RPI Top 100. To be somewhat optimistic for them, the fact is that they've had to play a lot of road games so far, and over the next three weeks they'll get home games against Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois. But despite a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of close to 60th right now, they are nowhere near an at-large bid until they can beat a few quality teams. I think they're good enough to eventually get those wins and into the Tournament, but they only have a limited amount of time to get it done.