Marquette Blows Away Notre Dame

Marquette 79, #11 Notre Dame 57
Marquette is a team that has lived and died by the three since Tom Crean was coaching there, and as strong as their three-point shooters can be I've never seen them as hot as they were in this game. In all they 12-for-17 (71%) from behind the arc. And those shots really counted for more than three points apiece, because in total they served to completely demoralize Notre Dame. Marquette just seemed to be playing with twice the effort at all times. This is an excellent win for Marquette, but honestly this is still a team that struggles to score in the half court when they're not hitting their threes. They play one-on-one offense and don't have players that are skilled enough to create a lot of their own offense (other than occasionally Jae Crowder, who can be a force in the paint at times). This win pushes Marquette to 3-1 in the Big East (a tie for fourth place), but it's come against a relatively soft schedule by Big East standards. Things get tougher in a hurry with road games at Louisville and Notre Dame on the next two Saturdays. They didn't do much of anything out-of-conference, so despite the strength of the Big East, Marquette still might need to go 10-8 in conference play to make the Tournament. If they go 9-9 they'll likely need a win or two in the Big East tournament to lock up an at-large bid. As for Notre Dame, this was just one of those nights. They could have showed more heart after Marquette blew the game open, but they never really had much chance of beating a team that was this white hot. They are still 3-2 in Big East play with a slew of nice wins (Georgetown, UConn, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgia, Cal) and zero bad losses. Even after this loss their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 8th in the nation. Do I think they're a Top Ten team? No, they're not quite that good. But they still have a good shot to finish something like fourth or fifth in the Big East and to end up with an NCAA Tournament seed in the 3-6 range.

#24 Michigan State 64, #21 Wisconsin 61, OT
This was a shocking collapse by a Wisconsin team that is usually automatic with a late lead because they hit their free throws and never turn the ball over. And they did well in those categories for the game as a whole, with 11-for-12 free throw shooting and only ten turnovers in 45 minutes played, but with a 9 point lead and about two and a half minutes remaining they had three bone-headed turnovers that allowed Michigan State to get back into the game. Draymond Green was a hot shooter late in the game and in overtime (26 points, including 3-for-5 behind the arc) and Delvon Roe also get credit for keeping Jon Leuer under wraps (10 points and 7 rebounds). As much as Michigan State has struggled, this win gets them to 3-1 in Big Ten with a home game against Northwestern coming up on Saturday. But after that it's onto the road for Illinois and Purdue. As for Wisconsin, I'm sure Bo Ryan will spend a lot of time in practice this week making sure that type of collapse never happens again. This loss drops them to 2-2 in the Big Ten, but those two losses were road games at Illinois and Michigan State. Ohio State is going to be very tough for any team to catch, but Wisconsin has to be considered at least an outside contender until they either lose a game at home, or lose on the road to a conference bottom feeder. They have a big home game coming up on Saturday against Illinois, and then head on the road for Indiana and Northwestern.

Penn State 57, #16 Illinois 55
Is Penn State better than we think they are? Offensively in this game, they actually were back to what they've been for most of the season - Talor Battle was everything, with 26 of his team's 57 points. What won this game, shockingly, was Penn State's defense, which had been the weakest in the Big Ten. Demetri McCamey (3-for-8 shooting, 5 assists, 5 turnovers) had a horrible game. As a team the Illini shot 40% on two-pointers (compared to 51% on the season) and committed turnovers on 25% of possessions (compared to 19.7% on the season). Believe it or not, Penn State is now fifth in the Big Ten with a 3-2 record, although that should come back to Earth soon with road games at Ohio State and Purdue up next. This win pushes their RPI up to 52nd, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 81st, so they've still got a few more upsets to go to overcome that weak non-conference performance and to get onto the bubble. I don't see them coming close - I still think they'll end up near the Big Ten cellar. But just the fact that I have to talk about Penn State's bubble chances in January is shocking. As for Illinois, this loss drops them to 3-1 in Big Ten play with a brutal stretch upcoming (at Wisconsin, vs Michigan State, vs Ohio State). I don't see them winning more than one of those three games. They probably need to win two of three if they're going to keep their Big Ten titles hopes plausible after this bad loss.