Saturday, January 15, 2011

Marquette Chokes Away Huge Lead

#17 Louisville 71, Marquette 70
Marquette entered this game on the bubble, with the opportunity to collect a win that would have been huge for so many reasons. It would have pushed them to 4-1 in the Big East, it would have given them a second Top 25 scalp, and it would have given them their first RPI Top 100 road victory. And with a little under six minutes left in this game Marquette led 65-47, surely an insurmountable lead. And to be fair, I give Louisville a lot of credit for playing well down the stretch, but when a lead is that large it's impossible for a comeback unless the leading team stinks it up. You can do the math yourself or you can trust me, but with an 18 point lead and 5:44, if the leading team just dribbles the ball for 35 seconds and takes a shot clock violation every possession, and then hits all of their free throws once the trailing team starts fouling, they cannot lose. There just isn't enough time. During Louisville's 24-5 run to end the game Marquette had 11 possessions, which consisted of 2-for-9 shooting, a turnover, and a split on two free throws. If what I said was true and they actually made two shots, how did they lose? They had five different possessions that took place when the lead was still seemingly insurmountable, and on only one of those five possessions did they let the shotclock get under 15 seconds. I blame coaching. Marquette is still 3-2 in the Big East, but they have only one big win (Notre Dame) and still lack a decent road victory, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will fall to nearly 40th after this loss. So they are still on the bubble. They get a breather next with DePaul at home Tuesday night, but then head on the road to Notre Dame. As for Louisville, they are now 3-1 and have quietly slid into fourth place in the Big East. But it's a very soft 3-1 record, with wins over Marquette and Seton Hall at home, and on the road at USF. And honestly, their schedule doesn't get difficult for a little while longer. They play St. John's at home on Wednesday, then head on the road to Providence, then get West Virginia. None of those games are gimmies, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a 6-1 Louisville team heading to UConn on January 29th.

#4 Syracuse 67, Cincinnati 52
Syracuse jumped all over Cincinnati here with an 18-3 lead before some of the Bearcats players even realized the game had started. The Syracuse zone is just so difficult for post players to deal with, and in this one they completely overwhelmed Yancy Gates and the rest of the Cincy frontline. Yancy Gates, Rashad Bishop and Ibrahima Thomas, the starting Cincy frontcourt, combined for 8 points on 3-for-18 shooting, with 13 rebounds. Syracuse obviously struggles to score in the halfcourt if they aren't getting turnovers (Cincy only had five here), but their defense is so suffocating that a lot of teams just can't take advantage. And this performance came with Syracuse missing Kris Joseph for much of the game after falling hard. At this point Syracuse isn't detailing exactly what the injury is, but if you read through the lines it sounds like he got a concussion when his head the ground. And that could be a huge injury if Joseph has to miss the next game, because it's in only two days and it will be on the road at Pitt, the only game between those two teams this season. A loss there will do real damage to Syracuse's hopes of a Big East regular season title. As for Cincinnati, they are 16-2, but they're 1-2 against the RPI Top 50, with the one win at home against Xavier. The only RPI Top 300 road victory they have so far was against Miami-Ohio. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will still be close to 25th after this game, but they have a long way to go just to make the Tournament. They head on the road to Notre Dame on Wednesday and then head to St. John's. Despite the strength of the Big East, Cincinnati might need to get to 10-8 in the Big East to make the NCAA Tournament because of how weak their non-conference schedule was. Remember the 2008-09 Providence team that went 10-8 in a Big East Conference being called by the entire mainstream media the best conference ever, but their best win in non-conference was over Rhode Island and they had a bad loss to Northeastern, and a loss in the Big East tournament quarterfinals earned them a trip to the NIT.

Iona 100, Rider 96, OT
This was a really fun game from last night that I wanted to talk about briefly. There are never a lot of big games on Friday nights, and this one did have big MAAC implications since these two teams (along with Fairfield) have really separated themselves from the rest of the conference. Iona has been my pick all season long as the favorite, although most experts have been leaning toward Fairfield lately. But a Fairfield loss last night to Loyola-Maryland opened things up for the winner of this game to grab a share of the conference lead. Iona had a 17 point first half lead that they blew, and then Rider had an 8 point second half lead that they blew, and these teams went back and forth down the stretch with nobody able to get a stop. The spark for Iona was freshman Sean Armand, who had the game of his life with 17 points on 3-for-5 shooting from behind the arc. For Rider the star was Mike Ringgold, who hit 10-for-15 from the field. In the end Iona came up with the big road victory. They still have to play their home-and-home against Fairfield. None of these teams are going to earn an at-large bid, but they are playing for a regular season conference title and an easier path in the MAAC tournament. The conference is down this year, with a few truly awful teams at the bottom, so a top seed will provide a much easier path to the tournament finals.

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