Missouri State 59, Wichita State 56
This game took me back 5 years, when we used to see games like this all the time: fierce home MVC crowds, tough defense and NCAA Tournament implications. In the end it was Missouri State grabbing the road victory and control of the Missouri Valley Conference. No player in this game scored more than 11 points, but the difference was Missouri State's three-point shooting (8-for-16 vs 4-for-15). For now, Missouri State is alone atop the conference at 5-0. They are 13-3 overall without a big win or a bad loss (other than perhaps Tulsa). Missouri State's RPI is 39th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 41st, so they'd narrowly be in the Field of 68, but the lack of big wins is a problem. They will have to go at least 12-6 in the Valley to have a chance on the Selection Sunday, but probably need to go closer to 14-4. Wichita State will have a chance to even up the season series on the road at Missouri State on February 26th. The Shockers actually had a better non-conference performance, beating Virginia and not having a single bad loss. Their RPI is still 49th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 52nd, so they're right on the bubble. They also need to go at least 12-6 in Valley play to have a chance on Selection Sunday and probably need to go closer to 14-4.
Valparaiso 64, Cleveland State 58
This was a pretty even game where Valpo just shot better (46% vs 38%), although their atrocious 5-for-14 free throw shooting almost let Cleveland State back in the game. Remember that Cleveland State started the season 15-1 with a win over USF and only a loss to West Virginia. But then they had to go on a road trip to Butler and Valparaiso, the other two Horizon League teams in the RPI Top 100, and have now lost both. And the question is: how does this team respond? Are they going to tailspin to another season of anonymity with a record like 12-6 or 13-5 in conference play, or will they get back on the saddle and go on another winning streak. The top four teams in the conference other than Cleveland State are Butler, Valparaiso, Detroit and Wright State, and all four of those teams will travel to Cleveland for a game between January 20th and February 5th. I would like to see Cleveland State win at least three of those four games to keep their realistic at-large hopes alive. As for Valpo, they move to 12-5 but have losses to Toledo and Ohio. Their RPI is 60th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 70th, but their Sagarin PREDICTOR and their Pomeroy rating are closer to 100th. They're a very unlikely at-large team, but are good enough that they should finish in the top four of the Horizon regular season standings and will have a shot to earn the automatic bid.
#1 Duke 71, Maryland 64
I had figured that the reason Duke wouldn't go undefeated this season was that they would lose a game or two on the road against a team like Maryland or North Carolina, but here they received a heck of a battle at Cameron Indoor from the Terps. The reason this game was close was Jordan Williams, who ate up the Duke frontcourt. Williams had 23 points and 13 rebounds, and held the Plumlee brothers to a combined 4 points, 14 rebounds and 8 fouls (Miles Plumlee fouled out). Duke is fortunate that there aren't many strong frontcourts in the ACC this season, but this game revealed a flaw that will hurt them come Tournament time. What happens when they have to face a team like Pitt or Ohio State? Miles Plumlee in particular needs to improve after what had been a promising freshman season last year. Even without Kyrie Irving, Duke probably has the best backcourt in the nation, but they showed a startling weakness in the paint in this game. As for Maryland, this was a tough missed opportunity that also drops them to 0-2 in the ACC and 10-5 overall. They still lack a good win (a win over Penn State is their best right now), but they also lack a bad loss. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 79th, but their PREDICTOR is 21st and their Pomeroy rating is 14th. So they should start collecting some good wins. They'll get a shot at a huge non-conference win on Saturday at Villanova, and also will get a home game to finish the job against the Duke on February 2nd.
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3 comments:
Miles Plumlee is the Junior, and Mason is the Sophomore. Ryan Kelly has actually been the better defender in Duke's frontcourt this year, but is in a shooting slump. None of them are a back to the basket threat.
"What happens when [Duke has] to face a team like Pitt or Ohio State?"
Well, they will see if their advantage in guards outweighs their disadvantage in the front court. Running into that problem isn't so bad, because it means that you are in the elite eight or farther.
This is actually a very typical Coach K team. They have very rarely had a decent center.
Sorry, I always get Miles and Mason confused. Now that a third Plumlee is on the way I'm in a whole lot of trouble. I also constantly confuse the Morris brothers on Kansas.
It is true that Duke has rarely had good centers, but I would argue that's been a big reason why Duke has had so many Tournament flame-outs over the past 6-8 years. It wasn't a coincidence, in my opinion, that they finally won the National Championship last season after putting together their strongest frontcourt in a decade.
Even without Jon Scheyer the backcourt is improved - Andre Dawkins has taken leaps and bounds forward, Seth Curry is a great addition, Tyler Thornton can provide quality energy minutes, and obviously Kyrie Irving is a stud (should he be back this season). But in the frontcourt they lost Zoubek and Thomas, and the Plumlees are no better, and Ryan Kelly is what he is. I think that's a big problem.
Of course, most teams would like to have a "big problem" that is "We're the best team in the country but we might lose in the Elite 8 or Final Four to a team that has a really good frontcourt"...
I disagree as to why Duke has flamed out in a number of recent years. My point about Duke rarely having good centers is just as true of the years when Duke was always going to the Final 4 as it is of the years where Duke was getting knocked off in the early rounds. I think the real difference in those years was guard play, specifically point guard play.
Until last year, Coach K had always relied on an athletic point guard as the key to his ball denial defense. The years where Duke got knocked out in the early rounds, they did not have that, and got carved up when they couldn't stop the other team's guards.
This is the first season since 2003-04 that Duke has been able to truly pressure teams and extend their defense the way Coach K likes. It doesn't always win the championship, but it does make you a contender, and it does add consistency to their results.
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