Friday, January 14, 2011

Purdue's Winning Streak Snapped

#25 Minnesota 70, #8 Purdue 67
Purdue came into this game one of the most unknown teams in the nation. They were 15-1 coming in, on a ten game winning streak, but it was against a soft schedule. Their biggest wins were over Virginia Tech, Northwestern and Michigan, and their one loss was to Richmond. They're always tough under Matt Painter, and they have two tremendous players in E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, but can they really be a Top Ten team without Robbie Hummel? This was the first team all season they've played inside the RPI Top 55 and they played well but came up short, and now the questions will remain. They head off now to play West Virginia on the road Sunday, then get Penn State at home, but then have to play seven ranked teams in their next eight games, including road games at Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois. Needless to say, the questions we have about this team will be answered soon. As for Minnesota, they came into this game 1-3 in the Big Ten, but those three losses were road games at Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State. So the fact is that they still haven't lost at home, and they still haven't lost to the bottom half of the conference, meaning that they're still very much in play for one of the top spots in the conference, although I seriously doubt they'll make a run at the regular season conference title. They do have a relatively easy schedule upcoming, beginning with a home game against Iowa on Sunday.

#6 San Diego State 55, UNLV 49
San Diego State did what you'd expect them to do here. They have by far the best frontcourt in the Mountain West, and UNLV gets almost all of their production from guards, so UNLV was running their offense far from the basket all game. The statistics don't entirely support this, as UNLV only took 18 three-pointers on 61 shots from the field. But I'm telling you that I watched this game and UNLV was shooting jumpers all night. The best statistical evidence I have is that they attempted seven free throws the entire game after averaging 16 per game coming in. That said, UNLV has the ability to get really hot behind the arc. That's the danger of being a team weak in the backcourt going against UNLV - if the Runnin' Rebs get hot, you're going to lose. And if UNLV hadn't hit a horrendous 1-for-18 behind the arc they'd probably have pulled the road upset. But they did shoot 1-for-18, and San Diego State moves on to 18-0, one of four undefeated teams remaining in Division I. But I think they will be vulnerable to BYU, because the fact is that few teams can shoot the ball like BYU, and the fact that BYU is such a good defensive rebounding team that they will keep SDSU from dominating inside. Who on San Diego State will stop The Jimmer? That's why, in my opinion, BYU remains the favorite in the Mountain West. San Diego State does have a tough game tomorrow, on the road at New Mexico. UNLV does appear to have really separated themselves as the third best team in the Mountain West. They aren't shooting consistently enough to catch San Diego State or BYU, but they're playing far better than New Mexico. They do look like a fairly safe Tournament team, but I could see them getting anything between a 4 seed and an 11 seed. They still have yet to really define themselves. Their next game is tomorrow at Air Force, and then they head home for Colorado State and New Mexico.

Rhode Island 78, Richmond 74
Rhode Island, like much of the Atlantic Ten, has been Jekyl & Hyde all season. They beat Boston College, Drexel,and Charleston, and nearly knocked off Pittsburgh. But they also lost to Quinnipiac and UIC and lost at home by 27 points to Xavier. It seems like the A-10 all season has been plagued by teams like Rhode Island losing horrible games out-of-conference and then upsetting the teams in conference that actually have a chance to go Dancing. At this point, honestly, it's not out of the question that the A-10 will be a one-bid league. Only Temple is safe at this point. Richmond is arguably the best positioned to get an at-large bid out of the rest of the conference, although they've got a long, long way to go. Richmond is 13-5 with wins over Purdue, Seton Hall and VCU, but bad losses to Iona, Bucknell and Georgia Tech. They're only 2-3 against the RPI Top 100 and their RPI is 84th, although both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them as closer to the 50th best team in the nation. They play George Washington next, on Wednesday evening. Their next big game is January 25th at Dayton. As for Rhode Island, they actually have a much stronger RPI (57th) than Richmond, but that's due to the RPI still being fairly inaccurate this early in the season. They're an impressive 4-4 against the RPI Top 100... until you break it down and realize that their win over Boston College is really their best win by far. Their second best win was over Drexel, and they've got those losses to UIC and Quinnipiac. Neither Sagarin or Pomeroy rates them as one of the 100 best teams in the nation, although their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 78th. With an easy schedule upcoming (St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's and La Salle), Rhode Island has to win quite a few in a row to get me thinking they might be a bubble team.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

you absolutely love BYU.