San Diego State Continues To Roll

#6 San Diego State 87, New Mexico 77
As well as San Diego State has played, the reality is that they haven't had a lot of big wins, which makes this a very nice road victory. DJ Gay was the star with 30 points on 7-for-14 shooting, including 7-for-11 behind the arc. Kwahli Leonard added 19 points and 15 rebounds. This is SDSU's third quality road win (the other two were over Gonzaga and California) and their RPI is all the way up to 2nd in the nation. I don't see them getting a 1 seed unless they enter Selection Sunday with two losses are fewer, which I don't expect to happen, but it's possible. This was a missed opportunity for New Mexico, a team desperately in need of a quality win. They're now 12-5, but only 2-4 against the RPI Top 100, and those wins came against Colorado State and Colorado. They also have a bad loss to Wyoming, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has fallen out of the Top 75. New Mexico next plays on Wednesday at Utah, and then they head to UNLV. There aren't a lot of easy games in the Mountain West this season, but New Mexico is going to have to win a few in a row at some point just to get into the Tournament.

Oakland 86, IPFW 68
IPFW kept this game close early, but Oakland came back with a dominating offensive second half. For the game they hit 59% of their two-pointers, led by Reggie Hamilton. Hamilton hit 9-for-14 from the field and 11-for-11 at the line, for a total of 31 points. IPFW entered this game in second place in the Summit League, and for Oakland to come into their home gym and whip them like this emphasizes just how much better they are than everybody else in that conference. They are now 7-0 in conference play and are winning by an average of 21 points per game. The only team in the nation more dominating in their conference right now is Belmont in the Atlantic Sun. Oakland did beat Tennessee, and their worst losses aren't that bad for a Summit League team (Wright State, Valparaiso and Michigan). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is around 75th and their PREDICTOR is getting up close to 50th. Right now they're looking like a 13 seed in the Tournament, although they could move to a 12 or 14. But wherever they are (assuming they do earn that automatic bid) they'll be a dangerous first round team.

Xavier 81, Dayton 76
This game was extremely tight the entire way - the five point margin of victory was as large as the margin between the two teams was the entire game. In a game this tight it's always a mistake to try to draw too many conclusions, because obviously either team could have won if enough luck went their way. But the fact is that Dayton was due to have a close loss. They entered this game 5-1 in games decided by four points or less or in overtime. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS was 52nd and their PREDICTOR was 111th, and their Pomeroy Luck Rating was 11th. Dayton now has a week to get ready for a home game against Fordham, which they should be able to take care of, but they follow that with a big home game against Richmond. As for Xavier, despite a mediocre non-conference performance (best wins against Butler and Iowa, worst loss against Miami-Ohio) they are off to a quick 3-0 start in Atlantic Ten play, and after a Wednesday night road game at St. Bonaventure they come home for a Saturday home game against Temple with the conference lead potentially on the line. Xavier is now a solid 5-5 against the RPI Top 100 with zero RPI 100+ losses, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up close to 50th. They probably need to get to 12-4 in A-10 play to have a good shot on Selection Sunday.