Should Dayton Be Taken Seriously?

Dayton 76, New Mexico 73, 2 OT
New Mexico was in command of this game early on, but Dayton got hot behind the arc and hit enough clutch shots to pull this one out. Chris Wright was the best player on the floor for Dayton as usual (17 points and 14 rebounds), but it was Dayton's outside shooting that was the difference. Dayton struggled tremendously on two-pointers (27%), but hit 45% on three-pointers. Paul Williams and Chris Johnson combined to hit 8-for-13 behind the arc. At this point, Dayton actually has a quality resume - they're 12-3 with wins over Seton Hall, New Mexico and Ole Miss, and only one bad loss against East Tennessee State. Their RPI is 49th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 43rd. In other words, if the season ended now there's a good chance Dayton would make the Field of 68. But here's the catch: their Pomeroy rating is 88th and their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 124th. So the computers don't even think Dayton is good enough to be a bubble team. Why the disparity? They've been lucky, for one thing. They beat Savannah State and Central Connecticut State by 2 points apiece, and won two other games in overtime. Their best opponent, Cincinnati, whipped them by 34 points. They have an atrocious 45.4% effective FG%, and have committed more turnovers than they've forced. They should make the Tournament if they can get to 11-5 in Atlantic Ten play, but what the computers are telling us is that Dayton really isn't good enough to pull that off. As for New Mexico, they continue to stumble and are firmly on the bubble right now. They are 11-3, but 0-3 against the RPI Top 100. There will be chances for good wins in conference play, and they'll get their first chance against San Diego State on January 15th.

#5 Syracuse 70, #15 Notre Dame 58
This game was very tight until about ten minutes remained and Syracuse went on a 19-3 run. Notre Dame did show heart in fighting back in the final minutes, but they had way too much ground to make up. Kris Joseph and Rick Jackson have keyed every big win for Syracuse this season, and they did so again, dominating the Notre Dame post players for 30 points, 5 offensive rebounds and 6 blocks. If Fab Melo ever gets going, Syracuse will really have a fearsome frontline. I talked a few days ago about whether I thought Notre Dame deserved a serious look as a Big East contender after beating Georgetown. I ended up saying I didn't think so, and this result doesn't change that belief. I don't think they have the horses to finish with the 14-4 or 15-3 (or possibly 16-2) record that it will take to win the Big East. They will need to beat a good team on the road. The Irish will play UConn tomorrow, and their next road game is January 10th at Marquette. Syracuse is now 2-0, and should continue to roll against a soft early schedule in the Big East. Their next very tough game will be January 17th at Pitt.

St. John's 67, Providence 65
St. John's led almost this entire game, and they were up by ten points with only 8 minutes to go, but they narrowly survived a late rally to move to a surprising 2-0 in Big East play. Those two wins came on the road at West Virginia and Providence - nothing to sniff at. The Johnnies were also coming off a victory against Northwestern, helping them get over those two disappointing losses against St. Bonaventure and Fordham. Their RPI is a preposterous 9th (obviously that will fall when the RPI gets more accurate later this season), but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 37th, so they're up on the bubble again. But they will need some big scalps to make up for those two bad losses, and they get their chance now with eight consecutive games against teams currently ranked in the Top 25. They begin at home against Georgetown tonight, and also have a home game against Duke (on January 30th) mixed in with their conference opponents. As for Providence, they appear not to have learned the lesson from 2008-09, when they went 10-8 in Big East play and 19-13 overall, but didn't even come particularly close to making the NCAA Tournament because of a dreadfully weak schedule (Pomeroy rated their non-conference SOS 223rd in the nation). This year they went 11-2 out-of-conference, but the Pomeroy strength of that schedule? 276th. They are now 1-3 against the RPI Top 100, and 5-4 against the RPI Top 200. They're 0-2 in Big East play and will get Pittsburgh tomorrow before an easy stretch that will allow them to recover. But without any good wins out-of-conference they will need a couple of big scalps in conference to make up for that weak schedule. Unlike college football, college basketball rewards teams that play tough schedules, and Providence will again be punished unless they overwhelmingly prove that they deserve to be in the Field of 68.