Stanford Shocks Washington

Stanford 58, #18 Washington 56
This result caught a lot by surprise. Washington is, by far, the best team in the Pac-10. But when Isaiah Thomas has a bad game (as he did here, with 5-for-12 shooting and 4 turnovers) Washington has a tendency to become a jump shooting team. Here they launched 26 three-pointers to only 32 two-pointers, and that meant only 12 free throws all game. Stanford attacked the rim, not only offa turnovers but by also attacking quickly off of made baskets and long rebounds, taking only 11 threes and earning 21 free throws. I give Johnny Dawkins credit, not just for this game, but for this season. The team doesn't have a lot of talent yet, but they're feisty, and that's why this isn't nearly the gigantic upset that a lot thought. The fact is that they have already beaten California, and their bad losses (Murray State and Tulsa) really aren't that bad. The computers all rate them as around the 70-75th best team. So they're not a likely Tournament team, but they're a mid-level Pac-10 team and can be expected to be tough to beat at home in conference play. As for Washington, the fact is that they weren't going to win every game in the Pac-10, even if they're likely to be favored in all of them. But with the weakness of their conference, the only chance they have at a 1 or 2 seed in the Tournament is to have an overwhelming record. I don't see any realistic scenario for a 1 seed for them, but if they can go something like 16-2 in conference play and then win the Pac-10 tournament they will likely earn a 2 seed. The Huskies play Sunday at Cal, and then come home for the Arizona teams on next Thursday and Saturday. Stanford is now 3-1 in the Pac-10 and will play Washington State at home tonight. Next week they head on the road to play the two Los Angeles schools.

California 88, Washington State 81, OT
California's tough schedule out-of-conference really weakened their winning percentage, but it definitely prepared them for tough conference games. Their freshmen have already played in enough tight games against good teams that they almost aren't even like true freshmen anymore - like they've sped up that old saying that there are no freshmen in March. Allen Crabbe is one of those freshmen, and he had 30 points, including some key baskets down the stretch in regulation and in overtime. For Washington State, the problem last year was that after lighting up the non-conference slate Klay Thompson was bottled up (relatively) in conference play. So far this season he's still lighting it up in the Pac-10, including 36 points in this game, but he's not getting a lot of help, particularly from the frontcourt. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate Washinton State as the third best team in the Pac-10 (behind Washington and Arizona), but there's no guarantee that the Pac-10 will get three teams into the Tournament. Wazzu did beat Gonzaga and Baylor and they don't have any particularly bad losses, but they're only 2-3 in Pac-10 play, and will certainly need to finish 10-8 or better to get an at-large. They play at Stanford tonight, and then come home with a chance to make some noise against the two Arizona schools. The Arizona game will be really key, because with three losses already and a road game at Arizona still ahead, Wazzu's chance of a second place finish probably rest on beating Arizona at home. Cal is only 9-7, but all seven of those losses have come against the RPI Top 80, with the two worst losses coming to Stanford and Southern Miss. They also have a win over Temple, and their RPI is 43rd. But losing a bunch of games against elite teams impresses the RPI more than it impresses the more important computers, and Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them as closer to the 70th best team in the nation. They're going to have to go at least 11-7 in the Pac-10 to have any chance at an at-large bid. They get a chance for a big win Sunday against Washington, and then head on the road for the two Los Angeles schools.

Valparaiso 71, Wright State 60
Homer Drew is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. He was briefly known in the mainstream after his son, Bryce, hit that famous shot to help Valpo along in their Tournament run that ended in the Sweet 16. But Homer Drew has achieved a lot more than that, with over 600 career wins, including a 361-297 record at Valparaiso. He stepped aside for a year to let his son Scott Drew take over, which catapulted Scott to the Baylor job, where he's done a tremendous job. And now Bryce Drew is back as the associate head coach at Valpo, obviously being set up for a head coaching position of his own. Valpo is having a tremendous season, and off of beating Cleveland State at home they now have gone on the road and beaten Wright State. Butler has re-grabbed control of the Horizon League, but Valpo is going to seriously challenge for second place. For now they're tied for first place with Butler, but they still have to head to Cleveland State on February 3rd. They have a tough game tomorrow against Detroit as well, another team that might contend for second place in the conference. Overall they're 13-5 now with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 59th, but they have no big wins and they've lost to Toledo and Ohio, so they're very unlikely to earn an at-large bid. Wright State, even after this loss, is still 4-2 in Horizon League play, but they still have two games left against against Butler and Cleveland State, and they still have to play at Valpo. I don't see how they finish any higher than fourth place in the conference now.