Texas Destroys Texas A&M

#11 Texas 81, #10 Texas A&M 60
This game was a true thumping. Texas had their first double-digit lead only about six minutes into the game, and less than halfway through the second half they had the lead all the way up to 23. And this wasn't some hot shooting performance - the Longhorns only hit four three-pointers the entire game. Instead they just pounded the ball into the paint, and got big scoring from both Jordan Hamilton (10-for-14 shooting) and Tristan Thompson (8-for-12 shooting). Texas shot 61% on two-pointers, Texas A&M shot 41%. To me, this game was a little reality check for a Texas A&M team that, while good, is not one of the ten best teams in the nation. They have a Sagarin PREDICTOR that is 31st and Pomeroy rates them 29th. I do think that Texas is the clear second best team in the Big 12, and they might still be able to challenge for the Big 12 title. The big roadblock, of course, is the fact that their one regular season game against Kansas will be on the road. That game will be this coming Saturday afternoon. As for Texas A&M, they should be in the thick of the battle for third place in the Big 12. They are stil 15-2 with wins over Washington, Temple, Missouri and Oklahoma State, and zero bad losses. Their RPI is 16th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 18th. If the season ended now they'd be a 4 or 5 seed in the Tournament, and I don't think they're likely to drop too far when you consider how difficult their remaining schedule will be compared the schedules that teams in the ACC, SEC and Pac-10 will be facing.

Colorado State 78, UNLV 63
It looked in the preseason that the Mountain West, like last season, would be a tight four team race with all four teams safely into the Tournament. But early this season New Mexico fell off the pace, and now they've fallen out of the Tournament altogether and have a bunch of work left to do just to get back into the Field of 68. And now it has turned into a two team race, with UNLV clearly falling way back off the pace, and possibly falling all the way to the bubble themselves. And the team currently in third place in the conference? Colorado State, off to a quick 3-1 start. UNLV is now only 3-4 against the RPI Top 100 with a win over Wisconsin their only against the RPI Top 50, and they've got a bad loss to UCSB. Their RPI is 32nd and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has fallen all the way to 41st. That said, both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them as the 21st best team in the nation, and they shouldn't have too much trouble getting to the 10-6 Mountain West record that will lock them into the Tournament. Even at 9-7 they'll still be in good shape considering their strength of schedule. As for Colorado State, the 3-1 Mountain West record is nice, but this is their first big win. In fact, it's their only win all season against a team in the RPI Top 70. Their other two conference wins came at home against Wyoming and TCU, which are about as easy as games get in the MWC. Their RPI is 50th but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 65th, and considering the fact that they only have one quality win there's no question they'd be out of the Tournament if the season ended now. But they're closing in on the bubble, and a win Saturday night against BYU would certainly get them there. They probably need to get to 11-5 in Mountain West play to make the Tournament. Pomeroy projects them to finish 9-7, and I actually think they have a better shot at 10-6. But 11-5 will require another upset or two, and also doing things like taking care of business on the road against the bottom half of the conference. The odds are long, but it's at least a realistic scenario.

Oklahoma State 96, Iowa State 87, OT
Jean-Paul Olukemi is one of the most unknown stars on a quality major conference team. He is only scoring 12 points per game on the season, but that's up to over 18 per game in Big 12 play, and he's leading Oklahoma State in Pomeroy offensive efficiency while averaging 7.2 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. He led all players with 29 points in this game, and had 6 of Oklahoma State's 19 offensive rebounds (a 50% team offensive rebounding percentage). This win pushes Oklahoma State to 2-2 in Big 12 play and 14-4 overall, with wins over Kansas State and Missouri State and no bad losses. They are 3-4 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI of 36th and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS to 39th. The warning sign is that their Sagarin PREDICTOR is 67th and Pomeroy has them 60th, so the computers all expect them to fade down the stretch. Depending on who they beat, an 8-8 record might be enough to get Oklahoma State into the Tournament. They get a chance for good wins next with a road game at Baylor on Saturday and then a home game against Texas on Wednesday. Iowa State now falls to 1-3 in the Big 12. They are 0-5 against the RPI Top 100 and 14-0 against the RPI 100+. Sagarin and Pomeroy actually both rate them as a Top 40 team, but they haven't been able to beat a good team and so for the time being they are well outside the Tournament. They'll have to get to at least 8-8 in the Big 12, and probably a nice performance in the Big 12 tournament, to actually get into the Field of 68. They head to Missouri on Saturday but then will get to come home for Texas Tech and Oklahoma.