Sunday, January 02, 2011

W-10 BP68

Happy New Year everybody! I'm still away on vacation, but I'll be home soon. I apologize for not posting as often as usual, and also for not responding to all of the comments that are left (normally I respond to all comments). I will start catching up on all of the games from the past few days I haven't had time to blog about. I hope to be completely caught up within 2-3 days.

We're two weeks away from when I'll transition to the Full Bubble. As always, here's how I see things ending up:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)

2. Texas
2. Georgetown
2. KENTUCKY (SEC)
2. Syracuse

3. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
3. Michigan State
3. Illinois
3. BYU (MWC)

4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
4. Baylor
4. San Diego State
4. Villanova

5. Wisconsin
5. Texas A&M
5. North Carolina
5. Kansas State

6. Purdue
6. UNLV
6. Tennessee
6. Missouri

7. Louisville
7. Florida
7. UConn
7. Vanderbilt

8. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
8. Notre Dame
8. Maryland
8. UTAH STATE (WAC)

9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. BUTLER (HORIZON)
9. New Mexico
9. West Virginia

10. Washington State
10. Arizona
10. Oklahoma State
10. Florida State

11. Boston College
11. Minnesota
11. Saint Mary's
11. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

12. Richmond
12. Central Florida
12. Northwestern
12. Virginia Tech
12. Marquette
12. Cincinnati

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

14. IONA (MAAC)
14. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Miami (Fl), Xavier, St. John's, Michigan, Iowa State, Nebraska, Drexel, Southern Miss, Cleveland State, Missouri State, California, Georgia

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia, Dayton, Rhode Island, Providence, Seton Hall, George Mason, UAB, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, UCLA, USC, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Portland

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Duquesne, UMass, Saint Louis, Rutgers, South Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Colorado, Oklahoma, James Madison, VCU, Marshall, UTEP, Tulsa, Valparaiso, Princeton, Air Force, TCU, Utah, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Boise State

2 comments:

CSURamsfan said...

Two questions:

What would it take for Syracuse to move up to a 1 seed? I think (though I am a homer) that they've looked like one of the top two or three teams this year, and the ELO_CHESS is now #1. I understand they've played a soft schedule though.

Where do you see the Mountain West finishing in terms of getting bids? Can all 4 of the "strong" MWC teams make it to the NCAAs? And can my usually woeful Colorado State Rams mount a serious run at staying on the bubble (I've watched us live enough to know we'll fall apart down the stretch -- but getting a 3-5 seed in the NIT would be nice.)

Jeff said...

It's fair to say that any team which wins the Big East regular season and conference tournament is extremely like to earn a 1 seed, and Syracuse certainly would. If they win one or the other then they'll have a shot - it will depend on how many big wins they have and what their competition looks like.

If Syracuse's ELO_CHESS stays at #1 they'll very likely get a 1 seed. But as you probably already have seen, their PREDICTOR is 19th, so they're more than likely going to drop.


Right now I still think the Big four in the MWC will go Dancing, although New Mexico is teetering. If the season ended tomorrow, New Mexico would be out. As for your Colorado State team, right now they do look like an NIT team. To make the Tournament they'll have to go at least 10-6 in conference, and they'll need to win at least once against UNLV, BYU or SDSU. Certainly by Selection Sunday they'll need to have at least 20 wins (a 10-6 finish and a win in the MWC tournament would get them to exactly 20, I believe).