Sunday, January 09, 2011

W-9 BP68

This is the last BP68 before I go to the Full Bubble, which means that I'll list every team with even the most remote chance of earning an at-large bid. For this week I'm again leaving out some of those more remote teams. The intra-conference regular season is now underway in all conferences, and once again this is how I see things ending up:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)

2. KENTUCKY (SEC)
2. Syracuse
2. Texas
2. Georgetown

3. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
3. Illinois
3. BYU (MWC)
3. Michigan State

4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
4. San Diego State
4. Villanova
4. Wisconsin

5. Purdue
5. Baylor
5. Texas A&M
5. Missouri

6. Kansas State
6. Louisville
6. UConn
6. Vanderbilt

7. North Carolina
7. UNLV
7. Tennessee
7. Notre Dame

8. GONZAGA (WCC)
8. Florida
8. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
8. Maryland

9. BUTLER (HORIZON)
9. Oklahoma State
9. UTAH STATE (WAC)
9. West Virginia

10. New Mexico
10. Washington State
10. Saint Mary's
10. Boston College

11. Arizona
11. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
11. Cincinnati
11. Minnesota

12. Florida State
12. Richmond
12. Central Florida
12. Northwestern
12. Virginia Tech
12. Marquette

13. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. HARVARD (IVY)

14. IONA (MAAC)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. KENT STATE (MAC)
14. CHARLESTON (SOUTHERN)

15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Miami (Fl), Dayton, St. John's, Michigan, Iowa State, Nebraska, Drexel, UAB, Southern Miss, Cleveland State, Missouri State, Georgia

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
NC State, Duquesne, Rhode Island, Xavier, Providence, Colorado, George Mason, UTEP, Creighton, Colorado State, California, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Portland

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, Virginia, UMass, Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, Oklahoma, James Madison, VCU, Marshall, Tulane, Tulsa, Valparaiso, Princeton, Northern Iowa, Air Force, TCU, Arizona State, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Boise State
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8 comments:

Sam said...

I've got to say, while Georgetown might be one of the ten best teams in the country, I can't see their end-of-season resume warranting a 2 seed.

I'm just guessing here, but I would say that it would take a 13-5 Big East record to get a 2 seed, which would mean going 12-2 from here on.

vs Pittsburgh
at Villanova
at Syracuse
at Connecticut
vs Syracuse
at Cincinnati

Going 12-2 from here on would mean going 4-2 in those games, and 8-0 in the rest, which seems like a tall order to me.

Maybe you think Georgetown is that good, or maybe you think that 13-5 isn't going to be necessary for a 2 seed(the selection committee does seem to love Big East tournament performances, see Notre Dame last year), but to me, a 2 seed doesn't look like a very likely outcome.

January 10, 2011 2:37 AM
Jeff said...

Well, my thinking is this. The Big East always gets a little over-seeded by the Selection Committee. On top of that we have a very weak SEC, Pac-10, ACC and Atlantic Ten. And even the MWC isn't as good as it was last season. So I think the Big East is looking at three teams seeded with a 1 or 2. So I've got Georgetown third in the Big East.

I think even if they go 12-6 but make the Big East tournament finals that will give them the third best resume in the conference, and it will get them a 2 seed.

January 10, 2011 8:52 AM
Sam said...

Fair enough. And I'm asking this from a pretty neutral position(I have little interest in any Big East team), and I agree that 12-6 with a good conference tournament would make them possibly a 2 seed, it's that 13-5, I thought was nearly impossible, so 12-6 would be just unlikely, in my opinion.

For what it's worth(not a whole lot, I think), Pomeroy has Georgetown projected to finish 9-9. Now, I think that's a pretty sizable overreaction, but it's worth thinking about.

Like I said, I think Georgetown has, or is close to having, the talent of a 2 seed, but I think they're going to need to perform at a higher level than that to finish up with the resume of a 2 seed.

January 10, 2011 9:52 AM
Jeff said...

Georgetown is similar to Michigan State to me. They've underperformed but they're well coached and have a history of improving throughout the season.

Also, let's keep in mind that I'm just saying that a 12-6 record plus a good Big East tournament performance will get a 2 seed - they could actually do worse than that and still get a 2 seed and it wouldn't surprise me.

Just look at last season when Georgetown went only 10-8 in the regular season and lost in the Big East tournament finals and still got a 3 seed. And this year the Top 15 is weaker than it was last season.

January 10, 2011 10:05 AM
DMoore said...

Hmmm. I don't see Georgetown doing that well either. Some of those teams they'll face are just better than them, and I think Georgetown has some consistency issues.

But let's see what the alternatives would be. I would think Purdue looks like a potential alternative so far. Why do you feel they'll end up in the 5 seed range? Washington should be favored in every game remaining, and has already gotten through the SoCal road stretch. Can a Pac10 team get enough respect? I don't think Abdul Gaddy's injury will hurt them too much in conference.

I think BYU may deserve it, but a Mountain West team isn't likely to get a 2 seed.

January 11, 2011 5:03 PM
Jeff said...

Well, my thinking on this is that the Pac-10 doesn't get a lot of respect. If Washington goes 18-0 then sure they'll get a 2 seed (or even possibly a 1), but even though they're favored in all 18 games they're going to end up losing some. They've already had some close squeakers, and they aren't going to have impressive wins.

The winner of the MWC might be able to sneak into a 2 because the conference is getting more respect this season (I think BYU and SDSU are both in the Top Ten in the AP poll right now), but right now I think a 3 seed is safer.

I have Purdue down because I want to see them beat an elite team, and I also want to see them beat a Top 50 team on the road. They've been playing very well but I just refuse to believe that they're a Top Ten team without Robbie Hummel. That would mean that they'd be, what, the 2nd best team in the nation with Hummel?? I think they're unproven.

The fact is that right now the 2-5 seeds are weak. Baylor? Kansas State? North Carolina? Tennessee? All of these teams are underperforming. The ACC, SEC, Pac-10 and Atlantic Ten are all underperforming as well, as are Butler & Gonzaga. The Big East has been slightly better than expected, but that's it. The potential candidates are all just soft right now.

January 11, 2011 6:03 PM
Anonymous said...

how far does Washington fall with that loss at Stanford?

With what Butler did to Stanford, seems like a black eye on U-dub's resume.

January 14, 2011 12:06 AM
Jeff said...

Well, Stanford is a Top 100 team, so it's not a horrible upset. The fact is that Washington is like Duke in that they were going to be favored in every conference game but they were bound to lose at least once or twice. That's why I only have them as a three seed.

At this point, Washington stays as a 3 seed. They'll have to lose at least two more times, most likely, to fall from that seed.

January 14, 2011 1:02 AM

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