Saturday, January 08, 2011

West Virginia Ends Georgetown's Big East Title Chances

West Virginia 65, #13 Georgetown 59
Most students haven't even begun their spring semesters yet, but Georgetown's Big East title chances are already over. This loss drops them to 1-3, and they'd have to go 14-0 the rest of the way to have any chance at a share of the Big East title - it's not going to happen. What was shocking to me wasn't that this game was close, because Georgetown tends to grind games out. What shocked me was how nervous the team looked down the stretch. This is a very experienced team that is well coached, and we saw when they came back to beat Missouri earlier in the season how strong they typically are in the final moments of games. After cutting the West Virginia lead to 62-59 with a little over 2 minutes to go, Georgetown had four offensive possessions over the next 2 minutes. They ended all four possessions with turnovers. And it was sloppy turnovers - dribbling off feet, stepping out of bounds, et cetera. The Hoyas have to re-evaluate their goals for the season now, and just have to start grinding out some wins and getting positive momentum. They play Pitt at home on Wednesday night and then the schedule eases up a bit with Rutgers, Seton Hall and St. John's. As for West Virginia, as well as they've played it's important to remember that they're still fighting just to get into the Tournament. They beat Vanderbilt, Oakland and Cleveland State out-of-conference and did not suffer bad losses, but even with the win here they're only 2-2 in Big East play, probably needing to get to at least 9-9 in Big East play to make the Tournament. They play Providence on Thursday, and then get chances for more quality non-conference wins with games against Purdue and Marshall.

North Carolina 62, Virginia 56
Speaking of teams fighting just to get into the Tournament, North Carolina had to overcome a double-digit second half deficit to survive a feisty Virginia squad here. Tyler Zeller was the best Tar Heels player with 12 points and as many offensive rebounds (4) as all of Virginia combined. But it's shocking to me that Roy Williams still hasn't figured out a rotation to his team. In this tight game (with no players in foul trouble) he gave 13 or more minutes to ten different players, with none of them getting more than 31. You can't win a lot of games that way. It seems obvious to me that Larry Drew (3 turnovers to 2 assists in this game) should be benched for Kendall Marshall, and Dexter Strickland should get more playing time at the expense of somebody like Justin Watts. The Tar Heels have their RPI up to 21st, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is close to 30th and they're only 1-4 against the RPI Top 70. Glamor schools like North Carolina generally get the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday, but if they finish 9-7 or worse in the ACC there is a real chance they'll still be NIT-bound again. Their next test will be Virginia Tech on Thursday night. Virginia obviously doesn't have the talent to finish much higher than the ACC cellar, but they fight hard under Tony Bennett and will continue to be a pesky team to defeat. Virginia is now 1-1 in ACC play and they have a week to get ready for a road game at Cameron Indoor.

Oklahoma State 76, #17 Kansas State 62
Curtis Kelly is still suspended (and he'll miss one more game after this), and he obviously would have made this game closer, but this game was mostly about ball handling. Whistle-happy refs founded out (for the most part) both teams' front lines. Kansas State committed 21 turnovers, compared to only 10 for Oklahoma State. Both teams were disjointed offensively, but that tends to happen when refs call this many fouls. The two teams combined to shoot 74 shots from the line, which is just ridiculous. For Oklahoma State this was their first big win of the season (other quality wins were against Missouri State, Stanford and Tulsa). They are now 1-0 in Big 12 play with a road game at Texas A&M coming up on Wednesday. Oklahoma State could make the Tournament with a 9-7 Big 12 record, but a 10-6 record should lock things up, so they'll be in really good shape if they can knock off the Aggies on Wednesday night. Kansas State is reeling a bit with three straight losses against non-cupcake opponents to fall to 1-4 against the RPI Top 50. They get a chance to recover now, though, with home games up next against Colorado and then Texas Tech. Curtis Kelly should be back for that latter game. Kansas State wasn't done any favors by the Big 12 schedule makers: they have to play Kansas and and Missouri twice, but their only games against Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State are on the road. So they're going to have to beat elite teams on the road to have success this season.

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