Saturday, January 29, 2011

What The St. Mary's Win Over Gonzaga Means

#24 Saint Mary's 73, Gonzaga 71
A lot of people have been talking about how this win means that St. Mary's is in control of the WCC regular season title, but the reality is that the losses to Santa Clara and San Francisco meant that Gonzaga's odds would have been very long even with a win here. They needed to sweep the season series with St. Mary's to have any realistic shot at a share of the WCC title, so just winning the game at home wouldn't have gotten them too far. A lot of people have also been talking about how this hurts Gonzaga's bubble chances, but realistically they weren't getting an at-large bid without a road win over St. Mary's anyway. Even with a win here and a loss at St. Mary's made their best case at-large scenario (beating Memphis, winning every other regular season game, and then losing in the WCC tournament finals to St. Mary's) a 23-9 finish with something like an 11-8 record against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Marquette, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Xavier and St. Mary's, along with losses to Santa Clara and San Francisco. That would have put their RPI probably just outside the Top 50, with their Sagarin ELO_CHESS possibly getting just inside the Top 50. That would put them right on the bubble... and again, that's their best case scenario.

So realistically, Gonzaga needed the automatic bid. But that's what changed with this game. Prior to this game I was picking Saint Mary's to win the regular season title but for Gonzaga to win the tournament title. That's why in the W-7 BP68 I have Saint Mary's with the higher seed even though I'm giving Gonzaga the WCC tournament championship. I just wasn't yet willing to bet against Gonzaga in a big moment away from the strong St. Mary's homecourt advantage. They've always found a way to come through, always had the superior end-of-game players. But that viewpoint changed during this game. Elias Harris had a remarkably quiet 17 points, and Steven Gray struggled to get a good shot when he needed one. In college basketball you need at least one perimeter player that can get a basket when you really need a basket, and the two best players at that from this game were Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellavedova from St. Mary's. McConnell, in particular, was dominant toward the end of the game against the porous Gonzaga defense. St. Mary's obviously is the overwhelming favorite to win the WCC regular season title, but now they are also my pick to win the WCC tournament title. And Gonzaga is staring at their first NIT appearance since 1998. Note that St. Mary's does have a tough game tonight at Portland, the third best team in the conference.

Indiana 52, #21 Illinois 49
I simultaneously enjoyed and was bothered by Indiana's reaction to this win. I have enjoyed how positive and supportive the Indiana fan base has been as Tom Crean rebuilds the Indiana program. They continue to pack Assembly Hall and to provide a great homecourt advantage. I remember loving how in the 2008-09 season, when the team was at its worst and they managed to pull just a single win all season in Big Ten play (against Iowa), the crowd was absolutely rocking during that one win. They won a single game at home over a conference bottom-feeder, and you'd have thought they were trying to beat a Top 5 ranked team the way they were making noise. And the gym was again rocking during this game. What was a little bizarre to me this time, however, was the way everybody celebrated afterwards. Tom Crean going to celebrate with his family before shaking hands with Bruce Weber, the fans celebrating beyond a typical court storming (somebody sent me this video of the fans celebrating with Tom Crean in the lobby of Assembly Hall after the game).... it all just seemed like a bit much for a team that entered this season with hopes of maybe getting to the Tournament bubble and that had merely knocked off a marginal Top 25 team.

Personally, I've been a little disappointed with how the team has played as a whole this year - I thought they'd be better. Even after this win Indiana is 2-6 in Big Ten play, and with a brutal schedule down the stretch they'll be lucky to get to 6-12. But that will still be better than last year, and they'll be even better next year with a very good recruiting class coming in. So things are going in the right direction. I just think the fans should hold the team to a slightly higher standard. As for Illinois, they just completed the toughest part of their schedule and didn't exactly rise to the challenge. They've lost four of five to fall to 4-4 in Big Ten play, and still have road games at Ohio State, Purdue and Minnesota left to go. They should be a near-lock to get into the Tournament if they finish 9-9 because of wins over Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland and Gonzaga, but it's disappointing for Illinois fans that we're even still discussing their bubble chances as we head into February. Their next game is Tuesday night against Penn State, and then they head on the road to play Northwestern and Minnesota.

Arizona 85, UCLA 74
In my opinion, Derrick Williams is the clear Player of the Year in the Pac-10, and it's not his fault that the Pac-10 is down this year so nobody nationally is paying attention to Arizona's games. In this game he poured in 22 points on 7-for-10 shooting (including 2-for-4 behind the arc), but his biggest impact was drawing fouls on UCLA's bigs (Reeves Nelson fouled out while Joshua Smith picked up four fouls in only 19 minutes played) and drawing the defense to him to open things up for Arizona's outside shooters. The ability to draw fouls is so important in the college game, where the five-foul rule means that each foul has a dramatic impact. Williams is drawing an insane 9.1 fouls per 40 minutes played, which is by far the most of any player on any major conference team (he is second in all of Division I, behind a player from Northwestern State).

With this win Arizona moves to 6-2 in Pac-10 play, grabbing firm control of second place. They are the only team that can realistically steal at least a share of the Pac-10 regular season title away from Washington. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is up to 25th, and their PREDICTOR is 14th (Pomeroy rates them 21st), so they are firmly in the Field of 68 and look to stay there. Their next game is tonight against USC, and then they head on the road to play the two northern California teams. UCLA falls to 5-3 and third place in the Pac-10, but their overall resume is much weaker than Arizona's. They are a horrid 6-7 against the RPI Top 200, and that upset win over BYU is their only against the RPI Top 50. They also have a bad loss to Montana. Their RPI is 50th, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 71st. I don't see a path to an at-large bid that doesn't involve at least an 11-7 Pac-10 record, and realistically they've probably got to get to at least 12-6. They play at Arizona State later this afternoon and then come home for USC and St. John's.

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