Friday, February 25, 2011

Gonzaga Reshapes WCC With Win Over SMC

Gonzaga 89, Saint Mary's 85, OT
I admit it: I gave up on Gonzaga. Elias Harris and Steven Gray were supposed to be the team's stars and were huge disappointments, Demetri Goodson had plateaued, and most importantly the team's defense was horrid. Prior to the home loss to Saint Mary's they had lost back-to-back games against Santa Clara and San Francisco where they had allowed a combined 181 points in 146 possessions (a mind-boggling 1.24 PPP). But over the past 15 days they've won five consecutive games. What has changed? Casual fans always look for offensive reasons to streaks or slumps, and if you're looking for an offensive reason it's Marquise Carter. Carter, a 2010 Juco recruit, barely played for most of the season but has been inserted into the starting lineup lately and has blown up. It wasn't until January 29th that Carter scored more than five points in a WCC game, but over the past three games he's averaged 16.3 points on 65.4% shooting (a 72.4 eFG%). Carter has taken pressure off of guys like Goodson and David Stockton, who are better when they can play within themselves and aren't forcing their games. But as I've argued many times, the difference between hot streaks and cold streaks for teams are always about defense. It's definitely true for the Zags. During their first eight WCC games they gave up 1.05 PPP. They did get scored on by Saint Mary's (1.21 PPP), but Saint Mary's does that to everybody at their place. But for the four games Gonzaga had won coming into this game last night? 0.83 PPP game. Now that's the defense the Zags have needed all season, and that's why they're on a roll.

Assuming Gonzaga doesn't fall on their face against San Diego or Cal State Bakersfield they'll head into the WCC tournament 22-9 and with at least a share of the WCC regular season title. Assuming they win their semifinal game but lose to Saint Mary's in the championship game they'll be 23-10 with quality wins against Saint Mary's, Xavier, Baylor and Oklahoma State, along with those bad losses to San Francisco and Santa Clara. I would expect their Sagarin ELO_CHESS to be narrowly outside the Top 50. That will get them on the bubble, and it might even get them into the NCAA Tournament, but honestly I think they'll get left out. I know that everybody is talking about how weak the bubble is, but people saying that have amnesia. The "We have no great teams and this is the weakest bubble ever" articles are a rite of February like Valentine's Day and Groundhog Dog. The reality is that the bubble will tighten over the final couple of weeks with major conference bubble teams picking up big wins, and automatic bids being stolen because of upsets in conference tournaments. Assuming we get a normal amount of tightening, I think that leaves Gonzaga out if they cannot win the WCC tournament.

Saint Mary's is 22-7, and is a home victory against Portland away form earning at least a share of the WCC regular season title, but they have really killed themselves with the slump they're in. Two weeks ago they looked to be safely in the NCAA Tournament, but three straight losses now has them all the way back to the bubble, with real questions about their weak non-conference schedule. Their only wins against the RPI Top 100 came against St. John's, Gonzaga and Long Beach State. That St. John's win is looking better and better, but it's always a bad sign when a team's third best win came against a Big West team. That loss to San Diego was a terrible loss, and their RPI has fallen all the way to 55th. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has also fallen, to 47th. I think they have a better chance at an at-large bid than Gonzaga, but it's still fairly precarious. At best I give them a 50-50 shot at an at-large bid should they beat Portland then win in the WCC semifinals and then fall in the finals to the Zags. I would still make them the narrow favorite over Gonzaga in the WCC tournament finals, but the Zags will have confidence after this huge win.

#6 Pittsburgh 71, West Virginia 58
Talib Zanna broke his finger before the game and will be gone for at least three weeks, but that's not a big loss. The freshman is still very raw, and is more of a project than a key player right now, despite the 12 minutes he's been playing per game. Pitt won this game by pounding the ball into the paint with players like Nasir Robinson (15 points on 6-for-8 shooting). They managed to get almost the entire West Virginia front court into foul trouble, including Deniz Kilicli, who fouled out after only 12 minutes played. Pitt also dominated the paint defensively, holding West Virginia to 8-for-36 shooting on two-pointers. It was only some hot outside shooting by Casey Mitchell (4-for-6 on threes) that kept this game competitive.

With this win Pittsburgh clinches one of the four double-byes in the Big East tournament. That's huge for a team that already tends to have a lot of success in that tournament. Pitt also is closing in on a Big East regular season title, which they'd have to choke away at this point. They do have a very difficult game coming up on Sunday at Louisville, but with a win there they'll effectively clinch that Big East title.

This loss drops West Virginia to 8-7 in Big East play, and also drops them to the bottom half of the conference. Certainly they'd like to at least get into the top half to get a single bye in the Big East tournament. The Mountaineers have six wins against the RPI Top 50 (Notre Dame, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Cincinnati and Cleveland State) and zero losses outside the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 20th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 24th. The one warning sign is their 17-11 overall record, which means that still need to win a game or two in order to be certain of an at-large bid. I do expect them to get there, though. They play at Rutgers, and then come home for UConn and Louisville. They should get two wins there, but even if they don't they'll be dumped into the first round of the Big East tournament where they'll get an easy first round opponent that they should clean up against. West Virginia should be in the Tournament, and deserves to be there - it's just a question of the Selection Committee being squeamish about teams with a record that is too close to .500.

USC 65, #10 Arizona 57
Maybe Arizona players are reading my blog? After their last game I talked about how their game against USC didn't matter. It's also possible that Kevin O'Neill had an impact on the referees when earlier this week he publicly complained that Derrick Williams was "the most protected due I've seen since Michael Jordan". Williams came into this game drawing an insane 8.6 fouls per 40 minutes, and earning 9.1 free throws per game. He drew exactly two free throws in this game. Williams actually only scored 11 points in the entire game. USC got a huge boost from Fordham transfer Jio Fontan, who scored 21 points - his first 15+ point performance in Pac-10 play.

Of course, as I said, this game really didn't matter for Arizona. They will play at UCLA tomorrow, and a win there will clinch the Pac-10 title for them. And if they win out and win the Pac-10 tournament they'll still likely get up to a 3 seed (they were never going to earn a 2 seed no matter what happened because of their weak schedule). Should they lose to UCLA they'll actually be drawn into a tie atop the Pac-10, but they will close the season with home games against the two Oregon schools while UCLA will end the season with road games at the two Washington schools. So Arizona will probably win the regular season title anyway. But they'd like to win it tomorrow. USC moves to 8-7 in the Pac-10 and 4-4 against the RPI Top 50. That sounds good until you see their 10-6 record against teams outside the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 74th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 88th. Even if they win every game between now and the Pac-10 tournament championship game they're still very unlikely to get an at-large bid.

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