Saturday, February 12, 2011

Louisville Survives Late Syracuse Rally

#15 Louisville 73, #13 Syracuse 69
Louisville actually had a 20 point lead with about 15 minutes remaining in this game, but went ice cold from the field with only five points in the next nine minutes to let Syracuse back in the game. It was particularly tough down the stretch with such bad play from Peyton Siva (0-for-4 from the field with two turnovers in the final 13 minutes of the game), who for most of the season has been their go-to guy down the stretch. And Siva has been spectacular in clutch moments this season, but everybody has a bad game from time to time. Kyle Kuric stepped into the void with 23 points on 9-for-15 shooting with 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 0 turnovers, including some clutch baskets down the stretch. But even with that horrible offensive stretch, Louisville still averaged 1.14 PPP on offense for the game as the Syracuse defense continues to struggle.

In the first 18 games of the season, Syracuse held opponents to under 1 point per possession 15 times, and they went 18-0 over those games. Over their last eight games they have allowed more than 1 PPP in six... naturally they are 2-6 in those games. It's pretty obvious at this point - if the Syracuse zone holds teams under 1 PPP they're going to win, but if they don't they're going to lose. It's not clear why the Syracuse defense has struggled so much lately. They haven't had injuries, and the effort is still there. Whatever the reason, it's reality, and Syracuse is now only 7-6 in Big East play with several tough games to go. Their next game will be Monday night against West Virginia. Louisville moves to 8-4 in Big East play, and they are only one loss behind second-place Notre Dame. It's interesting how dramatic their home/road split has been in conference play. They are 6-0 in home games and 2-4 in road games. One of those road victories came over bottom-feeder South Florida, and the other was in double overtime over UConn. It's something to keep in mind when picking your NCAA Tournament bracket. Interestingly enough, Louisville's next game is a tough road game, on Wednesday night at Cincinnati. They also have a road game at West Virginia on March 5th to close their regular season. They're going to have to win at least one of those two games to have a shot at a second place Big East finish.

Boston College 76, Maryland 72
With seemingly the entire ACC on the bubble there are so many of these games. Boston College, again, rode Reggie Jackson. It's gotten increasingly clear that BC needs a big game out of Jackson to beat good teams. Boston College also had some nice post defense in this game - holding Jordan Williams to seven shots from the field and one offensive rebound. Certainly, Boston College fans will be quick to point out that Reggie Jackson outplayed Jordan Williams head-to-head, although the fact that neither guards the other should take something from that. And besides, I think Nolan Smith is going to beat both of them for ACC Player of the Year anyway. Boston College is 6-5 in ACC play with this win, but the worry is that they only have one RPI Top 50 win (Texas A&M). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be close to 50th with this win, and they're right on the bubble. I still believe that the path to an at-large bid for them is a 9-7 ACC finish and a win in the ACC tournament. BC should be favored in three of their final five games, so if they take care of business they'll be in good shape. Their next game is one of the two remaining that they'll be underdogs in - a road game at North Carolina next Saturday.

Maryland is now 2-4 in games decided by four points or less, and one of those two wins came over Charleston way back on November 10th. Even before this game they had a Pomeroy Luck rating that was 312th in the country. And that's why their Sagarin PREDICTOR and Pomeroy ratings will be close to 25th in the nation after this loss while their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be around 65th. Their RPI is actually 86th. Now at 5-5 in the ACC, I think Maryland needs to get to 9-7 in ACC play. If they finish 8-8 they're going to need to win some games in the ACC tournament and they'll need a very weak bubble. Their next game will be Tuesday night at Virginia Tech.

#24 Vanderbilt 81, #18 Kentucky 77
This might be the best Kentucky has played on the road in SEC play. They are 1-5 in SEC road games with the one win coming over bottom-feeder South Carolina, but in this game they managed to win the offensive rebounding and turnover stats, they got to the free throw line as much as Vanderbilt did, and they also managed to shut down Vanderbilt star Jeffery Taylor (4 points and 4 fouls in 21 minutes on the floor). But Vandy hit 11-for-20 behind the arc and hung on for a huge victory. Vanderbilt is still two games behind Florida in the loss column in the SEC East, but Florida's toughest games are still ahead of them. Florida also has to head to Vanderbilt for a game on March 5th. Vanderbilt does also have a road game at Kentucky that will be an uphill battle, but they're at least still in contention for an SEC East regular season title. Vanderbilt's Sagarin ELO_CHESS will move inside the Top 25, and with wins over North Carolina and St. Mary's to go with this win they would be looking at a 6-8 seed if the season ended now. Their next game will be Wednesday night at Georgia.

As for Kentucky, the questions continue about their youth. Not only are they 1-5 in SEC road games, they're also 0-5 in games decided by four points or less. They are a very talented and very good team, but they're now 5-5 in SEC play and 6-7 against the RPI Top 100. If the season ended now they wouldn't be any higher than a 4 seed, and probably closer to a 5 or 6 seed. The good news for them is that they only have one tough road game left, and should be able to finish strong. I would like to see them win a close game before the NCAA Tournament to feel comfortable picking them to go far, but statisticians have made it very clear that there actually isn't much correlation between past success in close games and future success in close games. The impact of clutch or un-clutch play is overrated. Kentucky is still, in my opinion, the best team in the SEC.

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