Sunday, February 27, 2011

W-2 BP68

We're two weeks from Selection Sunday. Conference tournaments will begin Monday, so I will begin posting my conference tournament previews. The first will be up Sunday night (that would be tomorrow night, or tonight, depending on what time zone you're in). The next BP68 will be out after Wednesday night's games.

Remember, this is a projection of where things will end up and not a snapshot of where things are now. If your team is not rated where you think they should be, please tell me what you think I did wrong in the comments and I'll be happy to discuss it with you. One other note is that teams in CAPS are teams I'm projecting to earn automatic bids.

As always, here is how I see things ending up:

1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. BYU (MWC)
2. Texas
2. Purdue
2. San Diego State

3. Notre Dame
3. Syracuse
3. Wisconsin
3. Louisville

4. North Carolina
4. UConn
4. Villanova
4. Florida

5. Georgetown
5. KENTUCKY (SEC)
5. Arizona
5. Cincinnati

6. St. John's
6. Texas A&M
6. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Vanderbilt

7. West Virginia
7. UNLV
7. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
7. Missouri

8. Xavier
8. Tennessee
8. Michigan State
8. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)

9. George Mason
9. Kansas State
9. Illinois
9. UCLA

10. Marquette
10. Georgia
10. Virginia Tech
10. Richmond

11. UTAH STATE (WAC)
11. Baylor
11. Saint Mary's (WCC)
11. Florida State

12. UAB
12. Maryland
12. Minnesota
12. Alabama
12. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

13. BUTLER (HORIZON)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. HARVARD (IVY)

14. CHARLESTON (SOUTHERN)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. KENT STATE (MAC)

15. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)

16. LIU (NEC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. FLORIDA ATLANTIC (SUN BELT)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Boston College, Clemson, Michigan, Colorado, Missouri State, Gonzaga

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Dayton, Penn State, Nebraska, Southern Miss, Cleveland State, Colorado State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Duquesne, Oklahoma State, Drexel, VCU, Marshall, UTEP, Princeton, New Mexico, Washington State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Miami (Fl), NC State, Virginia, Rhode Island, Northwestern, Hofstra, James Madison, Tulsa, Valparaiso, Fairfield, California, USC, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

move BYU ahead of Duke and Pitt to the 1 seed. Not many teams have gone to a #4 ranked teams floor and won by 13

Evan Christopher Burke said...

Michigan's "seriously considered" now:D getting closer...all comes down to Michigan State!

Jeff said...

Evan, you guys are getting closer. Have to beat Michigan State and then win a game in the Big Ten tournament at the minimum, I would say. Although if Michigan State plays like they did today against Purdue, you guys will destroy them.

And "Anonymous", I think you can make a good argument right now for BYU on the 1 line. But if Pitt wins the Big East tournament, they're going to jump back over BYU. San Diego State is not the fourth best team in the country, and even if they were the Selection Committee is not going to make decisions based on one game like that. If Duke wins at North Carolina, that will be a more impressive win than winning at San Diego State, so if they do that and then win the ACC tournament then they'll get a 1 seed.

Anonymous said...

My focuse is in between the comments of those two guys - the good side of the bubble.

I'm kind of confused about what you see in a few teams - namely UAB, Baylor, and Maryland, Alabama. All three are obviously much better than their resumes.

Baylor is currently 17-10, 6-8 in conference play, with a road game against Oklahoma State and a home game against Texas. They are currently 5-7 against teams that will be in the RPI Top 100. I see them likely finishing 0-2 in those games, putting them at 5-9, 6-10 in conference play. Will they really allow a team in at 6-10, whose best wins are teams on the 6 and 7 line? Or are you simply predicting a win in one of those last two games? (Actually, in prepping this post, I've been convinced that they're at least in the first four out - but certainly not as high as you have them)

Maryland is an entirely different case. Closing at Miami and home vs. Virginia, I see them winning those two and getting to 9-7 in conference. Right now, I believe that are 5-11 vs. top 100 teams, but they only have 2 wins vs. teams anywhere close to the tournament. How do you argue that this team is better than teams like BC (Sweep of Maryland, wins over Texas A&M and Va Tech) or Gonzaga (wins over Xavier, Oklahoma St, and St. Mary's, neutral sites over Baylor and Marquette, likely 7-6 vs. RPI top 100)?

UAB doesn't even have good wins. They have home wins over VCU and UTEP (both on the wrong side of the bubble), and got swept by Memphis. Why are they in the conversation besides a pile of wins?

Alabama? The team currently with as many 100+ losses as 1-100 wins? (granted, a number that can rise, but still...)

On the bad side of the bubble - I already pitched Gonzaga briefly earlier, so I won't do it again. I think you're greatly underselling Nebraska and Oklahoma St (the latter tells me you probably expect them to lose to Baylor). But Nebraska - 7-8 vs. RPI top 100 (assuming 1-1 over last two), 3 100+ losses, wins over Texas and A&M (and perhaps Missouri). I suppose you think they'll end 0-2?

I think you're also underselling VCU.

Jeff said...

Like you said, I am expecting a strong finish from Baylor. They absolutely need to beat Texas or they'll be out of the Field of 68 heading into the Big 12 tournament.

But I think Nebraska and Oklahoma State are both out right now as well. I do agree that they'd be closer to the bubble than I have them if we were talking about where they stand right now, but I don't have faith in either team down the stretch. Even if Oklahoma State beats Baylor (a 50-50 game), I think that road game at Oklahoma is a 50-50 game. That Oklahoma team has been fiesty at home, and it will be senior night against their big rival. As for Nebraska, I was extremely underwhelmed with how they dealt with the success of that Texas win. I think they'll be lucky to even split their final two games.

As for UAB and Alabama, I honestly do agree with you that their resumes seems so poor for an at-large bid. A couple of spots will probably get stolen during the conference tournaments, and then after that, it just depends on how strong the bubble is.

I do disagree that I'm underselling VCU, though. They've lost four or five. I know that the Selection Committee swears that they don't take into account how teams finish anymore, but that's nonsense. How did Minnesota get in last season? There's no question that the Selection Committee weights late games more than early games.

I do agree that Gonzaga is getting close, though. If there's a weak bubble, I could see them leaping Alabama/UAB/Minnesota/etc. In the end, though, I think those bad losses and the lack of big wins keeps them out.

Anonymous said...

With Cincy losing at home vs UConn, a team St Johns beat handedly, I think you gotta swap St Johns and Cincy. Just from a pure momentum standpoint, the Johnnies are much more enticing.

This is barring of course whatever happens in the BE tourney. However, St Johns has a legit chance at a double bye, Cincy might not even get a bye at all....