Thursday, February 24, 2011

W-2.5 BP68

We're less than a week from the opening of the first conference tournaments. This weekend will be the final full weekend of the regular season. The next BP68 will be out after Saturday night's games.

Remember, this is a projection of where things will end up and not a snapshot of where things are now. If your team is not rated where you think they should be, please tell me what you think I did wrong in the comments and I'll be happy to discuss it with you. One other note (since it came up last week) is that teams in CAPS are teams I'm projecting to earn automatic bids.

As always, here is how I see things ending up:

1. DUKE (ACC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. Texas
2. BYU (MWC)
2. Purdue
2. San Diego State

3. Notre Dame
3. Syracuse
3. Wisconsin
3. Georgetown

4. Louisville
4. North Carolina
4. UConn
4. Villanova

5. KENTUCKY (SEC)
5. Arizona
5. Florida
5. Texas A&M

6. Vanderbilt
6. Missouri
6. West Virginia
6. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)

7. Cincinnati
7. Tennessee
7. UNLV
7. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

8. St. John's
8. Xavier
8. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
8. Michigan State

9. George Mason
9. Illinois
9. Saint Mary's (WCC)
9. Georgia

10. UTAH STATE (WAC)
10. Richmond
10. Kansas State
10. Virginia Tech

11. Baylor
11. Minnesota
11. Marquette
11. UCLA

12. Maryland
12. Florida State
12. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
12. UAB
12. Alabama
12. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

13. BUTLER (HORIZON)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
13. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
13. HARVARD (IVY)

14. CHARLESTON (SOUTHERN)
14. IONA (MAAC)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. KENT STATE (MAC)

15. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)

16. LIU (NEC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. FLORIDA ATLANTIC (SUN BELT)
16. HAMPTON (MEAC)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Boston College, Clemson, Nebraska, Southern Miss, Cleveland State, Missouri State, Colorado State, Gonzaga

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Dayton, Michigan, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Drexel, VCU, New Mexico, Washington State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Miami (Fl), Duquesne, Northwestern, Colorado, James Madison, Marshall, UTEP, Valparaiso, Princeton

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
NC State, Virginia, Rhode Island, Hofstra, Tulsa, Fairfield, California, USC, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Portland

2 comments:

Chris said...

That Duquesne loss to URI basically kills their chances of making the tournament huh? I was shocked as to how well URI played coming off that pitiful loss to UMass. What I think made it even more shocking was URI has no backup scholarship point guard & the only point guard, Marquis Jones, had 3 offensive fouls in the 1st 10 min of the game. With the way Duquesne causes turnovers, I thought they were going to run away w/it.

As for URI, hopefully this win gets them in contention for the NIT. Sadly I need to want ANOTHER NIT birth, but its better than nothing I guess.

Jeff said...

Yeah, that was a brutal loss for Duquesne last night. Remember, it's not unusual for a team to have a stinker before a big game, and to bounce back in a big way against the better opponent. Rhode Island obviously came into that UMass game thinking about Duquesne and got punished. They bounced back in a big way... although, obviously if they hadn't hit 50% of their threes they'd have lost anyway.

It's also worth noting that Duquesne is cursed this year. They are 0-8 in games decided by single-digits and 17-1 in games decided by double-digits. In comparison, Rhode Island is 10-5 in games decided by single-digits and 7-5 in games decided by double-digits. Once the game got close, was their any doubt that Duquesne's bad luck would continue? They entered the game 340th in the Pomeroy Luck rating, and obviously won't rise after losing by 1 again...