Monday, April 18, 2011

Josh Selby, Kawhi Leonard, Chris Singleton and DeAngelo Casto Declare

There are four new NBA Draft entrants to discuss, and I'll go through them briefly one by one - they'll be brief because three of the four were expected to go:

Josh Selby of Kansas - This was expected, but it's still a bad decision. The fact that Selby only played 2/3 of a season isn't the problem, because Kyrie Irving played even less than that and I think he's ready for the NBA. The problem is that Selby just wasn't that good. He started fewer than half the games he played, and according to Pomeroy had the single worst offensive efficiency among the team's regulars. He had a 46.1 eFG% - the next lowest among regulars was a 52.0 by Mario Little. We've seen this before with players that were hyped out of high school, were not regular starters in one year of college, and then became top draft picks - Marvin Williams of North Carolina being a good example. Williams has turned into a decent pro, but hasn't come close to living up to his draft position or potential. Another year would have really helped Selby. In my 2011-12 Big 12 preview I had assumed Selby would be gone and picked Kansas to finish 2nd, and with a 3 seed in the BP68.

Kawhi Leonard of San Diego State - Again, this was expected. Leonard really has achieved all he can achieve at the college level, and San Diego State is a team that was going to have a drop-off next year regardless of Leonard's decision. It made sense for him to go now. In my previews I assumed Leonard was gone, and picked San Diego State to finish third in the Mountain West, and I have them sneaking into the NCAA Tournament with a 12 seed and in a First Four game.

Chris Singleton of Florida State - Once again, this was expected. Singleton is a tremendous defender and a decent offensive player. Particularly with the number of top players that have eschewed this year's draft, Singleton is basically a first round lock and could slide into the lottery. Florida State will have a great defense with or without Singleton, and the question is always on offense. Michael Snaer has the potential to be a good offensive player. They have a good 2011 recruiting class, and I know that Terry Whisnant in particular is getting a lot of hype as a nice scorer. So Florida State should still be good, and with the assumption that Singleton would go pro I still put FSU third in the ACC, and with an 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

DeAngelo Casto of Washington State - This was a surprise, because Casto was not a star this past season and doesn't have clear NBA talent. He'll be somewhat under-sized as an NBA power forward, and he's not a good scorer, but he is a good defender and blocked a lot of shots, so he has a decent chance of getting drafted in the second round. In my 2011-12 Pac-12 preview I picked Washington State to finish third in the Pac-12, and gave them a 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That preview assumed Klay Thompson would go pro and Casto would stay. If that reverses than they'll be even better, since Klay Thompson is obviously a true star and a better player than Casto. But I still think Thompson will go pro, and so the loss of DeAngelo Casto will drop them to the bubble.

No comments: