Sunday, November 20, 2011

Vanderbilt Survives Strong NC State, Long Beach State Misses Opportunity vs SDSU

#20 Vanderbilt 86, NC State 79
CJ Leslie had been suspended for the first three NC State games for an off-court issue, and he wasted no time getting back to work. He scored 20 points on 7-for-9 shooting, and also had five rebounds and a pair of steals, despite only playing 27 minutes. Leslie didn't look to be in game shape yet, and you have to wonder if had he'd played the past few games instead of sitting out would the Wolfpack have actually won this game. From Vanderbilt's perspective, they'll feel like Leslie wouldn't have had the day he did if Vandy's premier paint defender, Festus Ezeli, was on the floor. He's been very missed, even in the early part of this season.

Despite Vanderbilt's early struggles this season they are still 3-1 against four decent opponents. Their next game will be Monday night against Oregon State. Their next quality opponent will be a week later, against Xavier. NC State, coming off a win over Princeton and a pair of cupcakes, will feel pretty good about the start of their season. CJ Leslie clearly makes them a Bubble-quality team. I've been keeping NC State as a team just narrowly out of the Field of 68, and I'm not going to move them into the Tournament right now, but I'm not dropping them either. I want to see more, and I want to see what CJ Leslie looks like after he gets back in the starting lineup and playing his best. Their next game will be Monday night against an angry Texas team - a difficult match-up for the Wolfpack.

San Diego State 77, Long Beach State 73, OT
After the win over Pitt, the Long Beach State bandwagon really would have filled up if they could have pulled out a victory here, on the road at San Diego State. It wasn't to be, but as I've said, I don't think Long Beach State is in play for an at-large bid anyway. These non-conference games are first and foremost about Long Beach State gaining experience and learning how to beat major conference teams. They are in a group, along with teams like Utah State, Iona, Belmont and others that are unlikely to earn at-large bids, but who will scare whichever 4, 5 or 6 seed they're bracketed against in the Round of 64 in March. And Long Beach State will get more practice than any of them, with a brutal schedule over the next few weeks. Their next game, on Tuesday night against Boise State, is actually one of the easier games they have upcoming.

San Diego State will be disappointed to have had this much trouble with Long Beach State, but this will very likely be an RPI Top 100 win, so it still worked out okay. They are now 5-1 with only a road loss at Baylor. Their next game will be Wednesday night at Arizona. Their next quality opponent after that will be a week later when they play Creighton.

Florida Atlantic 80, George Mason 75, OT
Things continue to get worse for Paul Hewitt at George Mason. They now have a pair of losses to Sun Belt teams (Florida Atlantic and Florida International), and a narrow overtime win over a mediocre Rhode Island team. And Florida Atlantic was the better team here - they had five more offensive rebounds, one fewer turnover, six more assists and four more steals. The good news for George Mason is that the rest of the teams at the top of the Colonial (Drexel, Old Dominion and VCU) have played poorly so far this season, so George Mason is still the conference favorite. The bad news? It's looking increasingly likely that the Colonial will be a one-bid league, and George Mason is going to have to win that tough conference tournament just to go Dancing.

It's worth noting that there's a big difference between Florida Atlantic and Florida International. Florida International has been floundering under Isiah Thomas, but Florida Atlantic has been steadily climbing under ex-St. John's coach Mike Jarvis. They were my preseason pick to win the Sun Belt. I have them as a 16 seed right now, though I could see myself pushing them to a 15 seed after the win today (going to put some thought into that as soon as I finish this post), and could see Florida Atlantic rising even higher if they can keep winning. One odd part of this success has been the regression of Raymond Taylor. I wrote two years ago about what was brewing under Mike Jarvis at Florida Atlantic and referenced an article by ESPN's Andy Katz where Jarvis talks about Taylor being the piece he was going to build his next good team around. Taylor was a stud as a freshman, putting up 14.2 points and 5.9 assists per game. He took a little step back as a sophomore with 11.6 points and 3.9 assists per game. But this season, as a junior? Only 7.8 points and 4.4 assists per game so far. The team is obviously doing fine without him taking that next step.... I'm just making an observation.

Florida Atlantic still has a long way to go to get their resume in a position where they might have a winnable first round NCAA Tournament game, should they get there. They already have mediocre losses to American University and Portland. They have a slew of tough upcoming road games ahead, including Kansas, Mississippi State and Harvard. Hofstra is up first, on Tuesday night. George Mason will try to bounce back on Monday against Brown. They'll play again the next day against Albany.

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