Sunday, December 04, 2011

W-14 BP68

We're 14 weeks until Selection Sunday. We're done with the November tournaments, and we're heading into what is kind of the "eye of the hurricane" part of the regular season... though it's hard to argue with that Kentucky/North Carolina game.

I made three changes to the 68 teams in the bracket this week. I moved Northwestern and Northern Iowa into the bracket, and pulled out Washington State and Notre Dame. I also changed my Big South auto champion from Liberty to Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina had looked better than Liberty, and beating them head-to-head by 10 points on Saturday was enough for me to make the switch.

As always, this is my projection of where things will be on Selection Sunday, and not a statement on where things stand now.

Here we go:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)

2. Duke
2. Louisville
2. Florida
2. TEXAS (BIG 12)

3. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas
3. Wisconsin
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

4. UConn
4. Alabama
4. Marquette
4. UNLV (MWC)

5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Vanderbilt
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Georgetown

6. Purdue
6. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Michigan
6. Xavier

7. West Virginia
7. Illinois
7. Florida State
7. Baylor

8. Texas A&M
8. California
8. Michigan State
8. Oklahoma State

9. New Mexico
9. Saint Louis
9. BYU
9. Villanova

10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. Missouri
10. San Diego State
10. CREIGHTON (MVC)

11. Indiana
11. Cincinnati
11. Virginia Tech
11. Saint Mary's

12. Washington
12. Stanford
12. Miami (Fl)
12. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
12. Northwestern
12. Northern Iowa

13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BUTLER (HORIZON)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)

14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. OAKLAND (SUMMIT)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BALL STATE (MAC)
15. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. FLORIDA ATLANTIC (SUN BELT)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Virginia, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Kansas State, Missouri State, Wichita State, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State, Mississippi State, New Mexico State

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Clemson, Dayton, Duquesne, Richmond, St. Joseph's, Nebraska, Iowa State, Oklahoma, UAB, Central Florida, Marshall, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, Maryland, George Washington, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, South Florida, Iowa, Drexel, James Madison, Old Dominion, VCU, Tulane, Valparaiso, UW-Milwaukee, Kent State, Ohio, Drake, Indiana State, Illinois State, Boise State, TCU, Arizona State, Colorado, USC, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Charleston, Santa Clara, Nevada

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Really don't understand how mizzou can be a ten seed with the way they have been destroying everyone and being ranked #10??? They have also beat cal who is seeded higher mizzou.

Jeff said...

I have a few concerns. First, I don't think they have a good coach, or a coach suited to this style of play. If Mike Anderson was still coaching this team I'd have them higher.

Second, they are a really small team. And third, they've been shooting the lights out (60.6 eFG%). Compare that to last year when, with better talent, they had a 51.5 eFG%.

Missouri has really only beaten one quality team this season. Considering the talent that left and the downgrade at coach, I just find it hard to believe they're really as good as their computer numbers say right now. If they can continue this over a few more quality opponents then they'll make me a believer. Until then I'm skeptical of the sample size.

Anonymous said...

Call me crazy, but in this case I think having Haith instead of Anderson actually HELPS Mizzou.

Don't get me wrong, I'd take Anderson over Haith any day to coach my team. I think this team is an exception though. Haith plays slower than Anderson, so he focuses alot more on coaching half-court offense. With how well they shoot the ball, I think this is a positive for Mizzou's offense.

As for defense, Mizzou is experienced in "40 minutes of hell", so they obviously know how to run a press defense. The Bowers injury forced Haith to go small and keep Anderson's press defense installed. A rare case of an injury actually helping the team if you ask me.

So, because of the unusual situation, I think this year's team is actually better off with Haith than Anderson. Definitely don't expect this hire to work out long-term though.

Jeff said...

That's an interesting argument. I'm starting to wonder if you might be right - that these players already learned the Mike Anderson method, and now they're just learning from a new coach. It's like having two different head coaches with different styles that can each bring different perspectives.

Anonymous said...

Yea, IMO, it's a special combination of lots of experience/strange personnel which forces the new coach to keep the old coach's "trademark" offense/defense, while the new coach improves the team's output on the other side of the ball.

Just something weird that seems to happen with 1 team each year (Brad Brownell with Clemson was last year's version).