Even during that horrible 2009-10 season when North Carolina lost 11 of 14 games at one point and ended up in the NIT, they still never had a game where they lost by 33. This was just a debacle in every conceivable way for them. They even struggled getting off the court at the end of the game. There was a bizarre moment with around 15 seconds remaining and just walk-ons left on the floor when Roy Williams and Leonard Hamilton agreed that for player safety they'd have the entire North Carolina bench head to the locker room. The five North Carolina walk-ons stood on the floor terribly confused by what was going on, and then were left to face the hordes of Florida State fans rushing the court all by themselves.
Florida State, a team that was hitting 30.2% of their threes this season, hit 12-for-27 (44%) here. They had a 58.1 eFG%, their best in an ACC game since they beat NC State 84-71 on January 15th, 2011. Their 12 steals were their most against an ACC opponent since they had 16 against Wake Forest on Feburary 1st, 2011. And their 1.18 PPP scored were their most in any game in more than two years. North Carolina, meanwhile, not only hit only 19% of threes but they only hit 45% of their free throws. Their 0.75 PPP were their worst since they had 0.67 against Georgia Tech during that horrible 3-11 stretch two seasons ago.
So the stats are staggering, but how much does this game mean? Obviously it's a great win for a Florida State team that desperately needed a big scalp for their resume. And obviously it's a loss that will harm North Carolina's chances of earning a 1 seed in March. But beyond that? This was clearly a fluke game. I don't think North Carolina forgot how to play basketball. They're still (in my opinion) one of the four best teams in the nation, and I'm going to continue projecting a 1 seed for them until they prove otherwise.
Prior to this game, Florida State had not beaten a single team this season inside the RPI Top 60. With a couple of bad losses (Princeton and Clemson), their resume was really starting to look shaky. They are now 2-1, but will need to finish at least 9-7 to have a good shot at an at-large bid. And unless they finish 10-6 or better, they're going to enter the ACC tournament with work left to do, even after this big win.
FSU will play Maryland on Tuesday, and then will head to Duke for a game next Saturday. North Carolina has a tough game up next, on the road Thursday night against a Virginia Tech team desperate for a big win.
Northwestern 81, #7 Michigan State 74
Michigan State's been flying high, having won 15 straight games coming in here. Northwestern had lost four of five coming in, and was in desperate need of a big win. Playing at home on a day that road teams have been losing all over the nation, this was a perfect combination for Northwestern. Northwestern was focused, and clicking offensively with 20 assists on 26 made baskets, and a 57.7 eFG%. For the Spartans, Keith Appling only shot 4-for-13 from the field, but he was their best player yet again. The shots weren't falling, but he was unstoppable getting to the basket and earned 13 free throws (he led the Spartans with 17 points scored).
This was almost a must-win for Northwestern after losing four of five to fall to 1-3 in Big Ten play. A loss here would have dropped them to 1-4 with a road game at Wisconsin coming up next. With the strength of the Big Ten, it's not inconceivable that Northwestern could earn an at-large bid with an 8-10 Big Ten record if they can win a couple of games in the Big Ten tournament, but even that would have been tough to achieve if they'd started the season 1-5.
Michigan State falls to 4-1 in Big Ten play with this loss, but they're still in excellent shape for a run at a Big Ten title. They're still tied for the conference lead with Illinois, and the reality is that nobody is going to go 16-2 or 15-3 in the Big Ten this season. I think that if any team gets to 14-4 they'll win the conference, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a group of teams share the Big Ten title at 13-5. The Spartans now head out to play at Michigan on Tuesday before coming home to play Purdue next Saturday.
#24 Marquette 62, Pittsburgh 57
This was almost a must-win game for Pittsburgh. They came in here having lost five straight and sitting at 0-4 in Big East play, coming off a horrendous thrashing at the hands of Rutgers. With a road game at Syracuse up next on Monday night, a loss here would have likely meant an 0-6 start to the Big East season. And you could see the desperation in their play - it was the best they've looked since their losing streak started. They managed to put up 0.98 PPP against a very good Marquette defense, which is an offensive explosion compared to the 0.93 PPP they had during their five game losing streak against softer defenses. Ashton Gibbs played very well, hitting 4-for-8 behind the arc and finishing with 29 points. But down the stretch Marquette was able to match Pitt's intensity, and they pulled out the victory.
Pittsburgh's best wins this season came against Oklahoma State, Tennessee and La Salle, and they have losses to Wagner, Rutgers and DePaul. They're 7-7 against the RPI Top 200, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has flown all the way out of the Top 100. Unless they pull that upset at the Carrier Dome on Monday, their at-large hopes are going to start looking fairly bleak.
Marquette moves to 3-2 in the Big East with this win. With as soft as the non-Syracuse teams in the Big East look this season, the Golden Eagles have as much of a chance at finishing second in the conference standings as anybody else. They'll play Louisville on Monday and then will go on the road to face Providence next Saturday.
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