Friday, January 06, 2012

Georgetown Has A Huge Comeback Win Over Marquette

#9 Georgetown 73, #20 Marquette 70
This game looked to be as good as over. Marquette led by 17 points with 13 minutes to go. But while Jason Clark led all players with 26 points for the game, it was Hollis Thompson and Henry Sims that dominated as Georgetown made a huge comeback. They finally took the lead after a 9-0 run where Sims or Thompson scored every single point. Sims was unstoppable in the paint, finishing 5-for-6 from the field. Hollis Thompson finished 6-for-7, including a pair of big threes in the final 3:30. Shooting defense has been a key all season for Marquette. They are 0-3 when allowing an eFG% greater than 55%. They're 12-0 when holding opponents to an eFG% under 55%.

This was a game that meant a lot for the Big East standings. Syracuse has been the favorite all season long, and they remain the favorite, but both of these teams came into this game hoping to put pressure on the Orange. Georgetown is now off to a quick 3-0 conference record, including this win and a road victory over Louisville. Throw in a pair of wins over Memphis and a victory against Alabama and Georgetown is making a case for a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, even if they should fall short against Syracuse. They'll play at a reeling West Virginia team tomorrow, and then come home to play a surging Cincinnati team on Monday night.

Marquette has quietly lost three of their last five games. This isn't a bad loss by any means, though the way they lost it wasn't good. But the reality is that their resume is softer than most people think it is. That upset win at Wisconsin remains their only victory over a team in the Pomeroy Top 60. They're now 1-1 in Big East play heading into a huge road game at Syracuse tomorrow. A win there would obviously put them right back into the Big East title race, but it's not likely. Unless they get a lot of easy fast break points, Marquette tends to struggle against teams that play a zone, and Syracuse plays the zone better than anybody else.

Temple 78, #3 Duke 73
With the ACC regular season opening up on Saturday, this was a classic letdown game for Duke against a quality Temple squad. Temple is a team that, under Fran Dunphy, never beats themselves. Duke needed to be aggressive offensively, but their backcourt just didn't show up. Seth Curry, Austin Rivers and Andre Dawkins combined for 18 points on 5-for-19 shooting in a combined 77 minutes played. The Plumlees actually played well (33 points on 15-for-24 shooting), but they're not the type of explosive scorers that can take over games by themselves. Temple got a big game from Khalif Wyatt (22 points on 8-for-12 shooting, along with 4 rebounds, 5 steals and 3 assists).

I think too many people let their visceral hate of Duke cause them to underrate the Blue Devils every season. I saw a whole slew of people on television and online complain after this game that Duke never deserved to be ranked so high and probably won't be in the Top Ten again all season. But if Duke shouldn't have been ranked so high, who exactly should have been ahead of them? They came into this game 12-1 with wins over Kansas, Michigan State, Michigan and Belmont, and only a loss on the road at Ohio State. Even after this loss they're still in the Top Ten in the Pomeroy ratings and all three of the Sagarin ratings. It's not typical for them to be so mentally lazy as to have a letdown game like this on the eve of ACC play, but I'm willing to give them a pass for one bad game. They'll open ACC play tomorrow at Georgia Tech, and then get Virginia at Cameron next Thursday.

This is Temple's biggest win of the season thus far, though they also have quality wins over Wichita State and Villanova, along with a bad loss to Bowling Green. They've been my pick since the preseason to win the Atlantic Ten, and I'm sticking with them, but there's no question that Saint Louis will be a tough challenger, as will Xavier if they can get their act together. Temple has to be careful as they've got a dangerous trap game tomorrow at home against a quality Dayton team. It lies between this huge win over Duke and a Wednesday road game at St. Louis.

Dayton 79, Saint Louis 72, OT
This was a close, hard fought game. The teams combined for 25 turnovers, and almost as many fouls (47) as made baskets (48). The difference was that Dayton was able to hit the big three (50% for the game, including an important one by Luke Fabrizius in overtime to put them up by four points with just two minutes to go). St. Louis is actually hitting 40.5% of their threes on the season, but they just couldn't get one to fall here (5-for-19 for the game).

This isn't a bad loss for St. Louis, but they blew a chance to put some distance between them and this surging Dayton team in the standings. A few weeks ago the Atlantic Ten looked like a clear battle between Temple, Xavier and Saint Louis without anybody else even close. Now, Dayton is forcing their way into that picture, as Xavier is potentially falling out.

Dayton is now 11-4 with wins over Alabama, Minnesota and St. Louis, along with bad losses to Miami (OH) and Buffalo. They are 1-0 in A-10 play and need to finish 10-6 or better to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. They'll play at Temple on Saturday, and then at St. Bonaventure on Wednesday.

St. Louis is still loved by the computers (14th in Pomeroy and 17th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR), but this loss emphasizes the fact that their resume is startlingly soft. They have three decent wins (Washington, Villanova and Oklahoma), but I don't have a single one of those teams in my current BP68. With a bad loss to Loyola-Marymount, they actually have a Sagarin ELO_CHESS sitting at 69th right now. They will try to get the winning touch back tomorrow against George Washington, and then have a big home game on Wednesday night against Temple. That will be their only game of the regular season against Temple, and they could really use the quality win for their resume.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

What´s up Jeff. For you, which rating is more exactly, the pomeroy ratings or the predictor?

Jeff said...

I wouldn't say there's a huge difference. If I had to lean toward one I'd take Pomeroy, because it breaks down both offense and defense, but they're both very useful.

Neither is the gospel, of course. A team rated 16th isn't necessarily better than a team rated 17th.