Friday, January 13, 2012

Indiana Falls At Home To Minnesota

Minnesota 77, #8 Indiana 74
I talked almost two weeks ago about Indiana and games like this. Their wins over Ohio State and Kentucky were tremendous, but I pointed out that pulling a couple of big upset wins is not all a team needs to contend for a Big Ten title or a 2, 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The next step an elite team has to take is to consistently win the games they're "supposed" to win. It's one thing to get up emotionally for a couple of huge games - bringing it night in and night out against mid-conference teams is more mentally difficult. Their first real test in that sense was Minnesota, and the Gophers just out-efforted them for most of the night. Minnesota destroyed the Hoosiers on the boards, finishing with a 44.4 OR%. The Hoosiers showed some life in the final 90 seconds, but trying to come back from a nine point deficit just was too much.

Austin Hollins, who had 18 points on 7-for-10 shooting, was the star for the Gophers. He also had two of the eight blocks Minnesota had. The Gophers did a good job of controlling the paint against Indiana. Cody Zeller got his 23 points, but that was the extent of Indiana's paint offense.

This was nearly a must-win for the Gophers. They came into this game 0-4 in Big Ten play. With a win over Virginia Tech out of conference and only one bad loss so far (Iowa), Minnesota could potentially earn an at-large bid if they can get to 8-10 in conference play, but finishing 8-5 in their final 13 games would have been difficult. They have six games left against teams in the Pomeroy Top Ten. Now at 1-4 with a big win over Indiana they still have an uphill battle to an at-large bid, but it's more plausible now. They will play at Penn State on Sunday, and then will have a week off before a home game against Northwestern.

Indiana falls to 3-2 in Big Ten play with this loss, with a road game at Ohio State coming up on Sunday. With an upset win they'll be right back in the Big Ten title race, but I'd bet against that. It's going to be a revenge game for Ohio State, and Indiana needed a bunch of breaks to win their home game over OSU. A loss will drop them to 3-3, though with a couple of easy games ahead (at Nebraska, vs Penn State).

Wisconsin 67, Purdue 62
I think a lot of people overreacted too much to Wisconsin's three game losing streak. They scored only 0.93 PPP over those three games, but it seemed to me that they were just missing wide open shots. The offense was still moving pretty well, and they were rebounding well and weren't turning the ball over. They were just ice cold from the field (their best shooting performance in those three games was a 38.2 eFG%). They had a more normal 58.8 eFG% here. Purdue was also a good match-up for Wisconsin since they're so dependent on threes (they are second in the Big Ten in the percentage of points scored on threes) and Wisconsin is so good at stopping the three (only 19.2% of points allowed by Wisconsin this season have been on threes, tied for the 7th best in the nation).

That all said, and despite the fact that Lewis Jackson only played half of this game because of a back injury, Purdue still could have won this game. They had eight more offensive rebounds and eight fewer turnovers than the Badgers. But they hit only 54.5% of their free throws, and that more than anything seemed to constantly stunt their momentum every time they went on a run.

The three game losing streak cost Wisconsin any realistic chance at the Big Ten title, but they're back to 2-3 now with a relatively easy schedule upcoming. They'll play Nebraska on Sunday, and then Northwestern on Wednesday. Purdue falls to 3-2 in Big Ten play with this loss, and I saw multiple people on twitter last night saying that Purdue's inability to close out Wisconsin at home meant that they weren't a Tournament team, but I don't see how Purdue is even a bubble team. They're 13-5 overall with wins over Temple, Illinois, Minnesota, Miami (Fl) and Iona, along with iffy losses to Butler and Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 30th, and their PREDICTOR and Pomeroy ratings are both inside the Top 30. A 9-9 or better record in conference play should put them into the NCAA Tournament. They'll try to move to 4-2 on Tuesday against Iowa.

Temple 72, Saint Louis 67
Temple had a tremendous offensive performance here, and it led to a really nice road victory. St. Louis is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, and Temple torched them for a 61.3 eFG%. Khalif Wyatt had another big game, scoring 22 points on 9-for-12 shooting. Wyatt doesn't get a lot of national attention (in fact, he's probably the third most well-known Temple Owl after Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore), but he's having a tremendous season. He's scored in double-digits for eight straight games, averaging 17.5 points per game over that stretch. He's scored 20+ in his last three games, and his 60.5 true shooting percentage this season is 9th best among all Atlantic Ten players.

While Saint Louis will be disappointed to lose at home to a team they're going to be dueling against for the conference title, the reality is that (other than shooting the ball) they outplayed Temple. They committed three fewer turnovers and had 11 more offensive rebounds. In fact, despite being ranked 228th in the nation with a 30.9 OR% for the season, they've been improving dramatically in that category as the season has gone along. They had an OR% under 30% in each of their first six games of the season, but have surpassed that mark in 10 of 11 games since. In fact, in three Atlantic Ten games so far they're averaging a 39.6 OR%, which is second best in the conference. With as good as they play defensively and as well as they hit threes, if they can become a consistently good offensive rebounding team then they'll really start looking like a potential Sweet 16 team.

Saint Louis is only 1-2 in Atlantic Ten play, but both losses have been to quality opponents (Temple and Dayton). In fact, they only have one bad loss this season (Loyola-Marymount). But despite being rated 16th in the Pomeroy ratings and 19th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, they haven't been able to close the deal against quality opponents. They are 0-3 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime, and are 331st in the nation in Pomeroy Luck rating. You don't get credit for bad luck on Selection Sunday, and they're 0-2 against the RPI Top 50 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 77th. The Billikens will probably need to get to 10-6 or better in Atlantic Ten play to earn an at-large bid. They'll play at Charlotte tomorrow, and then have a week off before getting Duquesne at home.

Temple needed this win to stay in control of the Atlantic Ten. A loss here actually would have dropped them to 0-2. Instead they are 1-1 heading into a road game at Richmond tomorrow, and then a home game against La Salle on Wednesday. With wins over Duke, Wichita State and St. Louis, and just one bad loss (Bowling Green), Temple is in good shape for an at-large Tournament bid (and they've been my pick to win that conference's auto bid all season long anyway). A 10-6 finish in conference play should just about lock them into the Tournament.

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