Saturday, January 07, 2012

Tennessee Knocks Off Florida

Tennessee 67, #14 Florida 56
This game was tight in the first half, but Tennessee just gradually pulled away in the second half. Tennessee came into this game well outside the Top 100 in every computer rating, but this win wasn't about them. They played well, certainly, and shot even better (a 56.1 eFG%), but this game was all about Florida's inconsistency. The Gators love to stand around the perimeter and launch three after three. They take their cues from Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, who have been doing this for a few years now.

For the season, 44% of the shots Florida has taken from the field have been threes. Six times in 16 games games they've hit 44% or more of those threes, and the only loss amongst those games was a respectable seven-point loss at Ohio State. But they hit only 31.8% of their threes here, their second worst percentage of the season. Their overall eFG% (42.0) was by far their worst of the season (only the second time all season they've been below 50%).

This is now the second inexplicable loss of the season. Their loss to Rutgers also involved bad three-point shooting (33% in that game). They have wins over Florida State and Arizona, but their narrow losses to Syracuse (by 4 points) and Ohio State (by 7) are holding them back from having a really nice resume. In fact, as good as they are, their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is outside the Top 50. I don't think there's any risk that they'll be a bubble team. They'll eventually win some close games. But it's just worth noting that their resume is soft enough that they could become a bubble team if they suffer a couple more upsets.

Tennessee entered this game 0-6 against teams with an RPI of 145th or higher. Yuck. Their RPI of 277th will improve quite a bit after this win, and they'll actually move up close to the Top 100 in the Pomeroy ratings, but they're still a long, long way from the Tournament bubble. They have bad losses to Austin Peay, Charleston and Oakland. Even if they somehow get to 10-6 in SEC play they'll still head into the SEC tournament on the outside of the bubble looking in. They'll try to move to 2-0 on Thursday at Mississippi State. Next Saturday they get another chance for a big win when Kentucky comes to Knoxville.

#12 Indiana 73, #13 Michigan 71
This is the second time that Indiana has had a classic letdown game opportunity, off the wins over Kentucky and Ohio State, but both times they've managed to come through and win the game. It's been very impressive. And for all the attention that Cody Zeller has gotten from the media, they're winning these games because his teammates have all improved since last season. Zeller, despite 18 points on 8-for-10 shooting, actually was fairly invisible in the key moments of this game. He didn't score in the final 11 minutes. The key player for Indiana in the second half was Christian Watford, who torched Michigan's defense inside and out for 25 points on 8-for-11 shooting.

Indiana has, of course, been a bit lucky this season. They're 3-0 in games decided by four points or less. But their resume is terrific, and at 2-1 with a very winnable upcoming schedule they're a dark horse contender to win the whole Big Ten. They'll play at Penn State tomorrow, and then come home to play Minnesota. In fact, they should be big favorites in four of their next five games (the one they won't be favored in will be the road game at Ohio State), so they have a good chance of getting off to a 6-2 start.

This is a tough missed opportunity for a Michigan team that, despite the lofty ranking in the human polls, has really only gotten that ranking through inertia. They have a few decent wins (Memphis, Iowa State, Minnesota and UCLA), but no really "big" wins, as a win over Indiana would have been. And that means that they now have a huge home game on Sunday against a reeling Wisconsin team - a chance to collect a big win and to firm up their spot in the top half of the Big Ten. And by the way, despite Michigan's lofty ranking and the fact that Wisconsin is on their way out of the Top 25, and the fact that the game will be played in Ann Arbor, don't be shocked if you wake up tomorrow morning and Wisconsin is favored. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy project a seven point win for Wisconsin, and I can't recall the last time that the Vegas line for a game was seven points off from either of those rating systems. Of course, if Wisconsin hits less than 25% of their threes again, Michigan will win.

Penn State 65, Purdue 45
We knew that Penn State would be a feisty team at home this season. New head coach Patrick Chambers has them playing hard, and even though they typically have small crowds at home, the fans that do show up tend to be rowdy. It's still a fairly strong homecourt advantage. But that said, Purdue got destroyed in this game. Purdue had a 38.2 eFG%, and even if they'd shot closer to their season average they still would have lost. Penn State owned the boards (a 34.5 OR%, compared to a 19.4% rate for Purdue), and committed two fewer turnovers.

Purdue getting out-rebounded is nothing new. They are a very small team. But what was shocking in this game was how poorly their backcourt, which is one of the best in the Big Ten, played. They couldn't get out in transition, and they were sloppy with the ball themselves (their 20.6% turnover rate was their second highest of the season). And with his teammates struggling, Robbie Hummel was just too quiet (5-for-11 from the field with 1 assist). It's a sign that Hummel is not the same player that he was before those injuries. Two years ago he'd have been able to take his team on his back against a team like Penn State without any real front court defenders of note. Purdue is now 2-1 in Big Ten play - a 9-9 record will probably be sufficient to get them into the NCAA Tournament. They'll play on the road at Minnesota tomorrow, and then come home to play Wisconsin on Thursday.

Penn State moves to 1-2 in Big Ten play with this win. They won't win too many more this season, but I'd expect them to collect at least two or three more upsets in Big Ten play. They're not going to lay down or give up. Their next game will be tomorrow at home against Indiana.

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