Saturday, January 21, 2012

UCF Beats An Underrated Memphis Team

Central Florida 68, Memphis 67
This was the loudest UCF crowd I've ever heard (not that I watch that many UCF games) and it was the best the team has looked all season long. I don't think that's a coincidence. They only turned it over eight times and collected six blocks. They actually would have won this game fairly easily if Memphis didn't hit 7-for-11 on threes. Keith Clanton was a monster, finishing with 23 points, 8 rebounds, and the game-winning three-point play with four seconds to go. But that outside shooting makes you think. I talk all the time about teams that launch too many threes even though they're not falling - but Memphis is a team that should be taking more of them. They're hitting 40% of their threes this season, but are taking only 25.7% of their shots behind the arc (that puts them 312th in the nation in 3PA/FGA). With all of these talented dribble-drivers, they should be kicking the ball out more rather than taking so many off-balance five-footers.

There's a lot of talk about Memphis being a gigantic disappointment this season. They were ranked as high as 8th in the nation early this season, but are now a bubble team. But this is just flat out wrong. If anything, Memphis is better than I thought they'd be. They were just very lucky and overrated last season, and are unlucky and underrated this season. Last season they were 14-2 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime. They finished 9th in the nation in Pomeroy's Luck rating, which is even more amazing when you realize that the 2nd luckiest team not from a small conference was Notre Dame, all the way back at 23rd. This season? With all of their stars back and an extra season of experience under their belts? They're 3-3 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime, and their Pomeroy Lucky rating is 281st.

Despite getting some Top 25 love at the end of last season (they weren't ranked, but they were among the teams that got votes), Pomeroy had them way back in 87th. That's why the statistical community was incredulous at the Top Ten ranking Memphis was getting early in the season. The fact is that going 14-2 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime is almost entirely luck, as this season's performance in close games has borne out. And in fact, it's been their bad luck this year that's holding them back. They're actually rated 28th in both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. Moving up from 87th to 28th in one season is pretty darn good, if you ask me. Not that this fact will stop anybody on television from calling Memphis a huge disappointment for the rest of the season.

Of course, the Selection Committee doesn't care how good teams are - they care who you've beat and who you lost to. And Memphis is now 12-6 with wins over Belmont, Miami (Fl), Southern Miss and Tennessee, along with a potentially bad loss here to UCF. It will really help their resume if they can knock off Xavier in a couple of weeks, because the lack of a big win is holding back their resume right now. They'll have to get to at least 11-5 in conference play to have a decent shot at an at-large bid.

Conference USA has been wide open all season long, and UCF is making a case to be in the conversation. Marshall is leading the conference standings with a 4-0 record, though they've done it against a soft schedule. And right behind them with one loss? Memphis, Southern Miss and UCF. UCF is 14-4, though against a weak schedule. They have wins over UConn and Memphis, along with a bad loss to Louisiana-Lafayette as well as an iffy loss to Marshall. Their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings are both hovering near 100, though, so I wouldn't say that I love their chances at either the conference title or an at-large bid.

Wisconsin 77, Northwestern 57

Throughout the Bo Ryan years, one of the biggest consistencies has been good shooting at home, and it's been mind-boggling how badly they've shot at home this season, however. In their three Big Ten home games prior to this one they shot a combined 10-for-68 (14.7%) behind the arc. Even a decent shooting night on the road at Purdue in the middle of that streak didn't turn things around at home. It looked to me like they were getting plenty of open shots - it was just a horrendous cold streak. And maybe they've mentally turned the corner, because they hit 12-for-23 behind the arc here. One game is not a streak, of course, and it's possible that the Badgers will go back to hideous shooting in their next game, but I just find it improbable that their shooting won't end up being decent at the end of the season. There are too many good shooters on this Badgers team, even if they are streaky.

For Northwestern, this type of game has become a pattern. John Shurna had 12 points in the first 9 minutes of this game, nearly outscoring Wisconsin by himself. Naturally, he made just one more bucket in the next 28 minutes of game time. It reminded me a bit of that Illinois game a couple of weeks ago when Shurna had 17 first half points and then didn't score again until the final seconds. Of course, Northwestern as a whole has struggled in the second halves of games this season, and a big part of that has to be fatigue. Nominally they have an eight man rotation, but with JerShon Cobb (hip) and Alex Marcotullio (concussion) out, they only are going six deep. I'm pretty sure they went more than ten minutes of the second half here without making a substitution. Bill Carmody tried switching to a zone to keep his players fresh, but that's when Wisconsin started hitting their threes and opened things up. When Northwestern was in man-to-man, Bo Ryan tried to run a lot of his team's offense at John Shurna to try to wear him out further.

Northwestern drops to 2-4 in Big Ten play after this loss. They don't have any bad losses yet and they do have those victories over Michigan State and Seton Hall, so if they can even get to 9-9 in Big Ten play and win a game in the Big Ten tournament then they should be in good shape for an at-large bid. They have a fairly crucial game coming up on Sunday at Minnesota. After that they'll come home for Purdue and then will play Nebraska at home. If they can that Minnesota game then those next two games are very winnable and they could be sitting pretty at 5-4 in Big Ten play.

Wisconsin has followed their three game losing streak with a three game winning streak. They're now 4-3 in conference play, with a road game coming up on Sunday at Illinois. A win there would actually pull Wisconsin within half a game of first place in the conference, which is fairly amazing considering that awful stretch they just came out of. But that said, Illinois is going to be fired up after that embarrassing loss to Penn State. And their most recent home game was a victory over Ohio State, so that will be a very tough road game for the Badgers.

Wichita State 71, Northern Iowa 68
Northern Iowa led almost the entire second half, but Tour'e Murray absolutely took this game over down the stretch. He single-handedly outscored Northern Iowa 8-4 over the final four minutes. Murray finished the game with 24 points on 8-for-10 from the field (including 2-for-3 behind the arc). Overall, this game was a battle of strengths. Northern Iowa has shot 38.6% behind the arc for the season (they get 36.3% of their points on threes, which is 22nd highest in the nation), but meanwhile Wichita State leads the conference in eFG% against, and is holding opponents to 30.0% behind the arc. WSU won that battle, holding UNI to precisely 30% on threes here.

This result further firms up the picture that I'm seeing in the Missouri Valley. Both Wichita State and Creighton are in the Tournament with room to spare. Either team would need multiple bad losses down the stretch to fall to the bubble. But at the same time, no other team looks like a very realistic at-large team. UNI is still the best of the rest, but their resume has really weakened over the past week. They are now only 3-5 in Missouri Valley play and 2-4 against the RPI Top 75, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that has slipped to 65th. As improved as the conference is, it's inconceivable that a 9-9 Missouri Valley team could earn an at-large bid. They'll need to finish at least 10-3 over their final 13 games. They do get a relatively easy game next, at home against Drake on Sunday.

Wichita State moves to 16-3 overall and 7-1 in conference play with this win. They have a nice win over UNLV along with zero bad losses. They have an easy schedule upcoming and just need to be sure not to fall on their face. Up next is a home game against Southern Illinois, followed by a home game against Evansville.

No comments: